2022 Oscar Predictions: SUPPORTING ACTOR (June)

The supporting categories are going to be among the most fluid this year with so many high profile films boasting massive casts of both big stars in small roles and veteran character actors with a chance at gold. Adam McKay’s Don’t Look Up, David O. Russell’s untitled film aka Canterbury Glass and Wes Anderson’s The French Dispatch are just three films that have a wealth of potential contenders this season. But how many times have we seen this large casts fizzle out when it comes to individual recognition? You can read scripts for amount of screen time and start to weigh that against their competition but without seeing them it’s a guessing game. But hey, these are early predictions, right?

What we have since May predictions is the Cannes lineup. How much did it change or impact the list for this month? As it turns out, not much. Barring some exceptional breakout, The French Dispatch is the only major title that could wedge itself into this race. With Netflix shut out of the Croisette due to their release strategy in France (films that debut at Cannes must then premiere in France that year; Netflix has a three-year hold on international releases that hit the US first), we’ll have to look to Venice, Telluride and Toronto where the streamer will plant itself.

One thing I mentioned in my May predictions was the prevalence of actors with multiple roles this season and how that might play out. This will also be one of the more fluid elements of the season as we’ll likely see predictions move from one film to another for an actor based on buzz, instinct and then screenings. One I’m doing that with this month is Richard Jenkins. He’s got both Searchlight’s Nightmare Alley and A24’s The Humans and last month I had him at the top for Nightmare Alley. Now I’m leaning more The Humans for him and making room for another NA co-star, Willem Dafoe. Or David Strathairn. We’ll see how that plays out. Not to mention which category some will eventually land on.

Since last month’s predictions a handful of films have already moved off to 2022 including The Northman, Don’t Worry Darling and Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris.

Here are my ranked Supporting Actor Oscar predictions for June 2021.

1. Richard Jenkins – The Humans (A24)
2. Jesse Plemons – The Power of the Dog (Netflix)
3. Bradley Cooper – Untitled Paul Thomas Anderson aka Soggy Bottom (MGM/UA)
4. John David Washington – Untitled David O. Russell aka Canterbury Glass (20th Century Studios)
5. Willem Dafoe – Nightmare Alley (Searchlight Pictures)
6. Corey Hawkins – The Tragedy of Macbeth (A24)
7. Adam Driver – The Last Duel (20th Century Studios)
8. Benicio Del Toro – The French Dispatch (Searchlight Pictures)
9. Al Pacino – House of Gucci (MGM/UA)
10. Ciarán Hinds – Belfast (Focus Features)

Other contenders: David Alvarez – West Side Story (20th Century Studios), Willem Dafoe – Nightmare Alley (Searchlight Pictures), Jamie Dornan – Belfast (Focus Features), Colin Firth – Mothering Sunday (Sony Pictures Classics), Brendan Gleeson – The Tragedy of Macbeth (A24), Kelvin Harrison Jr. – Cyrano (MGM), Richard Jenkins – Nightmare Alley (Searchlight Pictures), Kaimana – Next Goal Wins (Searchlight Pictures) – category placement TBD, Delroy Lindo – The Harder They Fall (Netflix), Rob Morgan – Don’t Look Up (Netflix), Alessandro Nivola – The Many Saints of Newark (Warner Bros/HBO Max), Josh O’Connor – Mothering Sunday (Sony Pictures Classics), Mark Rylance – Don’t Look Up (Netflix), LaKeith Stanfield – The Harder They Fall (Netflix), David Strathairn – Nightmare Alley (Searchlight Pictures), Steven Yeun – The Humans (A24)

Photo courtesy of Searchlight Pictures. © 2020 20th Century Studios