2022 Oscar Predictions: SUPPORTING ACTOR (October)

As is with supporting actress, supporting actor now has confirmed category placements for the men of Belfast with both Jamie Dornan and Ciarán Hinds here and young Jude Hill being the film’s sole lead push.

Unlike Caitríona Balfe and Judi Dench, Dornan and Hinds might find a tougher time both making the top five, even if they’re in the Best Picture frontrunner. Although, that’s gotten a bit easier the last few years. After a 26-year drought when the last time a film got two supporting actor nominations was 1991’s Bugsy, 2017 gave us Woody Harrelson and eventual winner Sam Rockwell in Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri and just two years later 2019’s The Irishman brought double nods for Joe Pesci and Al Pacino. And of course, and most famously, just last season saw run-as-lead LaKeith Stanfield nominated alongside his co-star and eventual winner Daniel Kaluuya for Judas and the Black Messiah. That bodes well, especially for a category that has no frontrunner and is more fluid than any acting category we have right now. In Academy history dual nominations in this category have happened 20 times in 93 years, compared to 35 in supporting actress.

But, in this case, I see it as the opposite of Balfe and Dench with the smaller role (Hinds) feeling more likely to get in than the larger one from Dornan. I can’t quite put my finger on it, call it a hunch, but in continuing with my Chicago comparison from supporting actress, Dornan could fall the way that Richard Gere did and see all of his co-stars get in while he cheers them on from the outside. In his favor is that openness of the category but he (and Hinds) will need to hit those precursors to give them that boost to both make it in (Stanfield exception aside). Something to note: the last time a film earned two nominations in both supporting categories was 1971’s The Last Picture Show when Ellen Burstyn and Cloris Leachman were nominated in supporting actress and Ben Johnson and Jeff Bridges were nominated in supporting actor. Both Leachman and Johnson won Oscars against their co-stars here.

Belfast isn’t the only film looking for double mentions, either. The Power of the Dog has Kodi Smit-McPhee (in a true breakout performance and who’s been hitting all the fests with his cast) and Jesse Plemons while Don’t Look Up has even more: Academy Award winner Mark Rylance, two-time Oscar nominee Jonah Hill and Rob Morgan, who receives top three billing for the film. I’m still completely on the fence on what to do about this film. Director Adam McKay’s Academy track record has been very good recently, even if his films aren’t critical or box office hits. Vice got three acting nominations among its eight yet I find it hard to place anyone from Don’t Look Up in the top 5. Is this a huge mistake on my part? Possibly, but something isn’t clicking with me, especially after the first teaser. I could be very, very wrong but in my estimation Sam Rockwell only made it in for Vice because it was the year after he won for Three Billboards and Hill has only made it in on the coattails of his male lead so that means Leonardo DiCaprio would probably have to get nominated. It’s not a science though, if/then scenarios only work in theory and sometimes almost anything is possible if your film or performance is strong enough.

All of that is kind of the perfect storm for Bradley Cooper in Licorice Pizza. Even if the role is small – although he’s heavily featured in the first trailer – it might be just what the 8-time Oscar-nominated actor/producer/writer/director to finally secure the gold and he remains in the top spot this month.

Here are my ranked 2022 Supporting Actor Oscar predictions for October 2021.

Green – moves up ↑ Red – moves down ↓ Blue – new/re-entry ♦ Black – no movement ↔

1. Bradley Cooper – Licorice Pizza (MGM/UA) ↔
2. Kodi Smit-McPhee – The Power of the Dog (Netflix) ↔
3. Ciarán Hinds – Belfast (Focus Features) ↔
4. Timothy Spall – Spencer (NEON) ↑
5. Richard Jenkins – The Humans (A24) ↓
6. Jamie Dornan – Belfast (Focus Features)
7. Jon Bernthal – King Richard (Warner Bros/HBO Max) ↑
8. Troy Kostur – CODA (Apple) v
9. Jesse Plemons – The Power of the Dog (Netflix) ↑
10. Jared Leto – House of Gucci (MGM/UA) ↑

Other contenders: Ben Affleck – The Tender Bar ↓ (Amazon Studios) , David Alvarez – West Side Story (20th Century Studios), Robin de Jesus – tick, tick…BOOM! (Netflix), Willem Dafoe – Nightmare Alley (Searchlight Pictures), Adam Driver – The Last Duel (20th Century Studios), Andrew Garfield – The Eyes of Tammy Faye (Searchlight Pictures), Brendan Gleeson – The Tragedy of Macbeth (A24), Kelvin Harrison, Jr. – Cyrano (MGM), Corey Hawkins – The Tragedy of Macbeth ↓ (A24/Apple), Jonah Hill – Don’t Look Up ↓ (Netflix), Jason Isaacs – Mass ↓ (Bleecker Street) , Richard Jenkins – Nightmare Alley (Searchlight Pictures), Rob Morgan – Don’t Look Up ↓ (Netflix), Al Pacino – House of Gucci (MGM/UA), Mark Rylance – Don’t Look Up (Netflix), Benny Safdie – Licorice Pizza (MGM/UA)