2022 Oscar Predictions: SUPPORTING ACTRESS (May)
The lead or supporting debate is definitely a huge factor in early predictions but even more so in Supporting Actress. Several potential contenders, from Cate Blanchett and Rooney Mara in Nightmare Alley to Kirsten Dunst in The Power of the Dog to Jodie Comer in The Last Duel to Frances McDormand in The Tragedy of Macbeth, could all go several ways. It’s creating a logjam of contenders, half of whom could be gone by year’s end once the dust settles on category placement.
After two consecutive years of Asian and Asian-American representation at the Oscars with Parasite and Minari in several above the line categories, could we finally see some parity for Latinas this year? EGOT winner Rita Moreno could return in a remake of the adaptation that earned her the Oscar, West Side Story. It’s a small part, replacing Doc from the original, playing Doc’s wife in what is essentially the same role. But she’ll be facing competition from Ariana DeBose, who is playing Moreno’s Oscar-winning role of Anita. Olga Merediz, a veteran actor with a stellar and stalwart career in film, stage and television going back more than 35 years, is about to have her big breakthrough with In the Heights this summer. She played the role of Abuela Claudia for the entire run of the stage musical and was Tony-nominated as Featured Actress for her performance.
Speaking of Tony-winning actresses reprising roles, Jayne Houdyshell in The Humans is someone to watch out for. She may be co-starring with bigger name talent like Oscar nominees Steven Yeun, Richard Jenkins, June Squibb plus Beanie Feldstein and Amy Schumer but she’s bringing the cache and the hardware to earn more.
Glenn Close is baaaack. After eight Oscar nominations and eight losses, Close holds the all-time record for a living actor at this point and she isn’t stopping with projects that could potentially net her even more nods. But can she finally win or is the Academy just stringing her along? Close received good notices for the spring release Four Good Days, as a mother dealing with her drug-addicted daughter (Mila Kunis) but it’s Swan Song that I think could be her next ticket.
I also think we could see the return of Marlee Matlin. Although she’s worked steadily since her history-making Best Actress Oscar win for 1986’s Children of a Lesser God, she hasn’t been nominated since, with Hollywood both pigeon-holing her as a deaf actress and simply not providing or producing films that embrace non-speaking actors. That could all change with CODA, the huge Sundance hit that Apple paid a whopping $25M for earlier this year. I’m still dubious of the August release date for the film (this would be an incredible fall festival player) but Matlin is a standout and is already paving the way for her campaign, recently presenting at the 93rd Oscars.
Here is my first take on Supporting Actress contenders for the 2022 Oscars, with an alphabetized list of likely contenders then a ranked list.
- Amy Adams – Dear Evan Hansen (Universal Pictures)
- Nina Arianda – Being the Ricardos (Amazon Studios)
- Awkwafina – Swan Song (Apple)
- Melissa Barrera – In the Heights (Warner Bros)
- Zazie Beetz – The Harder They Fall (Netflix)
- Emmanuelle Bercot – The Mad Woman’s Ball (Amazon Studios)
- Haley Bennett – Cyrano (MGM)
- Cate Blanchett – Don’t Look Up (Netflix)
- Cate Blanchett – Nightmare Alley (Searchlight Pictures) – lead or supporting?
- Mary J. Blige – Respect (MGM/UA)
- Abigail Breslin – Stillwater (Focus Features)
- Glenn Close – Swan Song (Apple)
- Toni Collette – Nightmare Alley (Searchlight Pictures)
- Olivia Colman – Mothering Sunday (Sony Pictures Classics)
- Jodie Comer – The Last Duel (20th Century Studios) – lead or supporting?
- Marion Cotillard – Annette (Amazon Studios)
- Camille Cottin – House of Gucci (MGM/UA)
- Camille Cottin – Stillwater (Focus Features)
- Viola Davis – Untitled Nora Fingscheidt aka Unforgiven (Netflix)
- Ana de Armas – Deep Water (20th Century Studios) – lead or supporting?
- Ariana DeBose – West Side Story (20th Century Studios)
- Judi Dench – Belfast (Focus Features)
- Rossy De Palma – Carmen (Sony Pictures Classics)
- Kaitlyn Dever – Dear Evan Hansen (Universal Pictures)
- Ann Dowd – Mass (Bleecker Street)
- Kirsten Dunst – The Power of the Dog (Netflix) – lead or supporting?
- Aunjanue Ellis – King Richard (Warner Bros)
- Vera Farmiga – The Many Saints of Newark (Warner Bros/HBO Max)
- Rebecca Ferguson – Dune (Warner Bros)
- Aisling Franciosi – Untitled Nora Fingscheidt aka Unforgiven (Netflix)
- Claire Foy – The Electric Life of Louis Wain (Amazon Studios)
- Tiffany Haddish – The Card Counter (Focus Features)
- Alana Haim – Untitled Paul Thomas Anderson aka Soggy Bottom (MGM)
- Naomie Harris – Swan Song (Apple)
- Sally Hawkins – Spencer (Neon)
- Salma Hayek – House of Gucci (MGM/UA)
- Gaby Hoffmann – C’mon C’mon (A24)
- Jayne Houdyshell – The Humans (A24)
- Vanessa Hudgens – tick, tick… Boom (Netflix)
- Cherry Jones – The Eyes of Tammy Faye (Searchlight Pictures)
- Kaimana – Next Goal Wins (Searchlight Pictures) – category placement TBD
- Nicole Kidman – The Northman (Focus Features)
- Regina King – The Harder They Fall (Netflix)
- Mélanie Laurent – The Mad Woman’s Ball (Amazon Studios)
- Rooney Mara – Nightmare Alley (Searchlight Pictures) – lead or supporting?
- Audra McDonald – Respect (MGM/UA)
- Kelly Macdonald – Operation Mincemeat (Netflix)
- Marlee Matlin – CODA (Apple)
- Frances McDormand – The French Dispatch (Searchlight Pictures)
- Frances McDormand – The Tragedy of Macbeth (A24) – lead or supporting?
- Thomasin McKenzie – The Power of the Dog (Netflix)
- Olga Merediz – In the Heights (Warner Bros)
- Helen Mirren – The Duke (Sony Pictures Classics)
- Julianne Moore – Dear Evan Hansen (Universal Pictures)
- Rita Moreno – West Side Story (20th Century Studios)
- Elisabeth Moss – The French Dispatch (Searchlight Pictures)
- Elisabeth Moss – Next Goal Wins (Searchlight Pictures)
- Ruth Negga – Passing (Netflix)
- Julianne Nicholson – Blonde (Netflix)
- Diana Rigg – Last Night in Soho (Focus Features)
- Zoe Saldana – Untitled David O. Russell aka Canterbury Glass (20th Century Studios)
- Alexandra Shipp – tick, tick… Boom (Netflix)
- Amy Schumer – The Humans (A24)
- June Squibb – The Humans (A24)
- Meryl Streep – Don’t Look Up (Netflix)
- Tilda Swinton – The French Dispatch (Searchlight Pictures)
- Anya Taylor-Joy – Untitled David O. Russell aka Canterbury Glass (20th Century Studios)
- Anya Taylor-Joy – Last Night in Soho (Focus Features)
- Anya Taylor-Joy – The Northman (Focus Features)
- Alicia Vikander – The Green Knight (A24)
- Samira Wiley – Red, White and Water (A24)
- Alfre Woodard – Fatherhood (Columbia)
- Zendaya – Dune (Warner Bros)
Here are my ranked Supporting Actress Oscar predictions for May 2021.
1. Cate Blanchett – Don’t Look Up (Netflix) or Nightmare Alley (Searchlight Pictures) – lead or supporting?
2. Ariana DeBose – West Side Story (20th Century Studios)
3. Olga Merediz – In the Heights (Warner Bros)
4. Ruth Negga – Passing (Netflix)
5. Jayne Houdyshell – The Humans (A24)
6. Toni Collette – Nightmare Alley (Searchlight Pictures)
7. Glenn Close – Swan Song (Apple)
8. Ann Dowd – Mass (Bleecker Street)
9. Marlee Matlin – CODA (Apple)
10. Kaimana – Next Goal Wins (Searchlight Pictures) – category placement TBD
Other contenders: Marion Cotillard – Annette (Amazon Studios), Judi Dench – Belfast (Focus Features), Kirsten Dunst – The Power of the Dog (Netflix) – lead or supporting?, Vera Farmiga – The Many Saints of Newark (Warner Bros/HBO Max), Sally Hawkins – Spencer (Neon), Rooney Mara – Nightmare Alley (Searchlight Pictures) – lead or supporting?, Audra McDonald – Respect (MGM/UA), Frances McDormand – The Tragedy of Macbeth (A24) – lead or supporting?, Rita Moreno – West Side Story (20th Century Studios), Meryl Streep – Don’t Look Up (Netflix), Anya Taylor-Joy – Untitled David O. Russell aka Canterbury Glass (20th Century Studios)
Films currently without distribution or possibly unfinished in time
- Jessie Buckley – The Lost Daughter (TBD)
- Dolly De Leon – Triangle of Sadness (TBD)
- Dakota Johnson – The Lost Daughter (TBD)
- Vicky Krieps – The Survivor (TBD)
- Charlotte Rampling – Benedetta (TBD)
He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Hollywood Critics Association (HCA) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.
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