2022 Tony Nominations Preview and Predictions: The Musicals – Saturday Nights, Strange Loops and Funny Girls

Broadway’s back! That’s what the Tony Awards shouted back in September when they finally handed out awards for the 2020 season that was cut short due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Theater in New York has come back in fits and starts since then, but thanks to strict vaccination and masking policies, the 2021-2022 season has still seen 13 musicals and 22 plays open on the Great White Way since Lincoln Center Theater’s production of Antoinette Chinonye Nwandu’s new play Pass Over opened at the August Wilson Theatre in August. The nominating committee has had such a busy month in April that they moved the nomination announcement back almost a week, from May 3 to May 9. It can be tough to predict the Tony nominations, given limited engagements that bring critically-acclaimed hits to a close long before the eligibility period closes, but join us in part one of our two-part pre-nominations rundown as we look at the possibilities in the top categories for Musicals:

Best Musical

If there’s one thing you can be sure of this year, it’s that the highly-acclaimed “A Strange Loop” will be at or close to the top of the nomination count, just like highly-acclaimed Off Broadway transfers “Natasha, Pierre and the Great Comet of 1812” and “Hadestown” before it. Michael R. Jackson’s meta-theatrical musical has been earning rave reviews since its Off Broadway premiere at Playwrights Horizons in 2019, and won the Pulitzer Prize for Drama in 2020, making it the front-runner for Best Musical. Musicals very rarely win the Pulitzer, but when they do, the Tonys always listen: Every single musical that has done so has been nominated for Best Musical, and the only one to lose the Tony was 2009’s “Next to Normal,” which won the 2010 Pulitzer Prize for Drama almost a year after the Tonys. As for which shows will join it in the top category, the most likely bets are the Bob Dylan jukebox musical Girl from the North Country, which got rave reviews and won the Outer Critics Circle award for Outstanding New Off-Broadway Musical in 2019, and West End sensation Six, the first musical to open this season (after the cruel twist of fate that saw Broadway shut down for the pandemic on the very day the show was supposed to open in 2020). Mr. Saturday Night, the last musical to open this season, will surely be able to coast to a nomination based on everyone’s love for its star, Billy Crystal. As for the last slot, it’s anyone’s guess. The Tonys’ aversion to closed shows may not bode well for Lincoln Center Theater’s marvelous Flying Over Sunset, and new original musicals Mrs. Doubtfire and Paradise Square both received good but unenthusiastic reviews. Diana, the Musical, already a legendary flop, is a non-starter, and MJ the Musical will likely be unable to overcome the controversy surrounding its very existence due to its by-the-numbers bio-musical format. We’re thinking the historical importance and rich design of Paradise Square will give it the edge.

Best Book of a Musical

See above, and basically copy it. A Strange Loop is most certainly the front-runner, with close competition from Conor McPherson’s Girl From the North Country. Six may fall behind here due to its concert-like structure, but given the weak competition, its place here is practically guaranteed. That weak competition will likely help “Mr. Saturday Night,” as well, and could open a place for the legendary James Lapine’s work on Flying Over Sunset. Given the reviews, Mrs. Doubtfire seems likelier for that last spot than Paradise Square, but we suspect that the nominating committee may go for the more original, more “important” story, leading to the team behind Paradise Square snagging that final spot.

Best Original Score

While plays are eligible for this award, the Tonys don’t tend to nominate them unless there aren’t enough musicals eligible. Still, reviews for several plays, including The Lehman Trilogy and the revival of for colored girls… have cited their scores as stand-out elements, so it could happen. As with Best Musical and Best Book, “A Strange Loop” is the frontrunner, Six is assured a nomination, and weak competition will likely benefit Jason Robert Brown and Amanda Green’s work on Mr. Saturday Night. Both “Paradise Square” and Mrs. Doubtfire were criticized for their unmemorable scores, but each had standout numbers cited. Flying Over Sunset could sneak in over one of those two based on name recognition and residual love for Tom Kitt and Michael Korie’s previous work, more well-known and beloved than that of the teams behind those other two musicals, but it’s more likely that the show’s earlier closing date and similar mixed reviews will leave it flying away from this lineup.

Best Musical Revival

Given that there were only four musical revivals this season, there will be three nominees in this category. Which will be the odd show out? Conventional wisdom would say that the Roundabout’s production of Caroline, or Change, a limited engagement that closed in January, would be the likeliest candidate. However, both the much-anticipated The Music Man with Hugh Jackman and Sutton Foster and the long-awaited first revival of Funny Girl with Beanie Feldstein and Ramin Karimloo have underwhelmed critics. If we had to guess, it would be on “Caroline” edging out Funny Girl, but the latter’s recent, splashy opening could save it and we wouldn’t be surprised. The one thing we do know: Marianne Elliott’s acclaimed, gender-swapped revival of Stephen Sondheim’s classic Company is the front-runner to win.

Best Leading Actress in a Musical

For the longest time, it seemed as though this award would be Beanie Feldstein’s to lose, for stepping into the shoes of the legendary Barbra Streisand as the legendary Fanny Brice in Funny Girl. But after early buzz from previews was mixed, critics didn’t help her cause with respectful but underwhelmed reviews. Her nomination may be in jeopardy, but she very well could be saved by her star power, the very thing that will also save Sutton Foster for her performance as Marian The Librarian Paroo in The Music Man. Sharon D. Clarke may not have their level of star power, but her tremendous rendition of Lot’s Wife surely locked her in for a nomination back in the fall, even if the limited run of Caroline, or Change ended in January.  Emmy winner Mare Winningham received rave reviews for her Broadway musical debut in Girl From the North Country, in a role that won Shirley Henderson an Olivier Award, so she should get a nomination despite the show’s long absence from Broadway (it only just re-opened on April 29). Company is still a hot ticket, though, and Tony winner Katrina Lenk will almost certainly find herself with another nomination for her sly comic timing as Bobbi. With those ladies looking good for four slots, who could swipe Feldstein’s nomination? We’d bet on Joaquina Kalukango, a Tony nominee last year for Slave Play who has the kind of bring-the-house-down solo number in Paradise Square that demands Tony voters take notice. Carmen Cusack could be a dark horse for her strong work as Clare Booth Luce in Flying Over Sunset, but the show didn’t seem to be well-loved enough to overcome its early-in-the-season closing. Personally, we’re hoping for one of the Queens from Six to sneak their way in. The question is: Which one? Unlike in England, where the ensemble received a joint nomination for Featured Actress, the Tony nominating committee determined that they would all compete individually for Leading Actress, meaning they are each other’s biggest competition for a nomination. Everyone has their favorite, and all are deserving, but the ones with the strongest chances are probably Andrea Macasaet (who gets the most laughs as the spunky Anne Boleyn), Brittney Mack (who gets the most virtuosic solo song as the happily-divorced Anna of Cleves), and Samantha Pauly (who has the most surprisingly affecting moment in the show as the sexy Katherine Howard). Mack is the only one to receive a solo award nomination so far, for the Drama Desk Awards back in 2020, so she may end up being the Queen of the castle, but internal competition will probably leave her on the outside looking in.

Leading Actor in a Musical

The show may have its problems, but MJ the Musical has an absolute ace up its sleeve in star Myles Frost, who should have no problem moonwalking his way to a nomination. Jaquel Spivey will add another nomination to the haul for A Strange Loop, as well. These newcomers will surely leave the stars fighting for the remaining slots. Sadly for Tony Yazbeck, Flying Over Sunset has long since closed, otherwise his virtuosic song-and-dance-man turn as Cary Grant could have gotten him his second Tony nomination. Broadway star Rob McClure got rave reviews for the otherwise tepidly-received Mrs. Doubtfire, but the Tony nominating committee nominates worthy performances from less-than-worthy shows all the time. Same goes for global superstar Hugh Jackman, despite the muted response The Music Man has received. Mr. Saturday Night has gotten mixed reviews, but everybody loves Billy Crystal, so it would be shocking to see him miss. But there is also Ramin Karimloo, whose Nicky Arnstein in Funny Girl is only his third Broadway credit, but who is an international star thanks to his performance as the Phantom in the 25th Anniversary performance of The Phantom of the Opera. He’s gotten good reviews, but we’re betting that the overwhelming focus on Beanie Feldstein, combined with the show’s mixed reviews, will leave him as the odd man out.

Featured Actress in a Musical

Patti LuPone. The Ladies Who Lunch. It almost doesn’t even matter who else gets nominated, since there’s no way any of them could possibly win over a legend like that performing such a legendary song. But here we are, and there are many possibilities. Jane Lynch is a veteran scene-stealer in the scene-stealing part of Mrs. Bryce in Funny Girl. Jayne Houdyshell is a New York theater legend in another scene-stealing, if very small, part in The Music Man. Jennifer Simard has been steadily building a strong resume over the past decade, and her performance as Sarah in Company is her most memorable yet. Shoshana Bean is in a similar position as Simard, and the reviews for Mr. Saturday Night have been kind to her. This could be her big moment… but she has strong internal competition from Broadway veteran Randy Graff, receiving more of the show’s comedic notices to Bean’s dramatic ones. L Morgan Lee received a Lucille Lortel nomination for A Strange Loop in its first iteration at Playwrights Horizons, and love for the show could carry her along. The West End production of Girl From the North Country snagged a Featured Actress nomination for Sheila Atim, whose role is played by Kimber Elayne Sprawl on Broadway, but Jeanette Bayardelle seems to have gotten most of the notices of the supporting cast in the Bob Dylan musical. It could be foolish to count out the legendary Judy Kaye, but probably not when the show she’s in is as legendary a flop as Diana, the Musical.

Featured Actor in a Musical

David Paymer got an Oscar nomination for Mr. Saturday Night even though the film was a flop, so expect him to pull that same trick now that it’s a musical. His strongest competition will likely come from Matt Doyle, who makes a comic banquet out of Getting Married Today in the gender-swapped revival of Company (Bridgerton”star Jonathan Bailey won the Olivier Award for the role in the production’s West End incarnation). Claybourne Elder makes for a magnificent himbo in that show, and could contend as well, as could the show’s hilarious and much-beloved pair of Christophers, Fitzgerald and Sieber. Jefferson Mays is Broadway royalty at this point, so a nomination for his performance as Mayor Shinn in The Music Man should be within his grasp. Whether or not his castmate Shuler Hensley (a Tony winner himself) can also grab a nomination is probably up to whether or not the nominating committee are fans of his big song “Shipoopi” (full disclosure: it’s my least favorite song in the show). John-Andrew Morrison won the Lucille Lortel Award for Featured Actor for A Strange Loop in its first incarnation at Playwrights Horizons, and he’s likely to repeat here. Two-time Tony nominee Brad Oscar has another scene-stealing number in Mrs. Doubtfire, but will that be enough with a field with meatier roles? That question also applies to Broadway legend Chip Zien, who was tremendous in a small but pivotal role in the long-closed “Caroline, or Change.”

Nominations will be announced May 9. The 75th Annual Tony Awards is set to be held on June 12, 2022, to recognize achievement in Broadway productions during the 2021–22 season. The ceremony will be held at Radio City Music Hall in New York City, will be broadcast live on CBS for the first time coast to coast and hosted by Academy Award winner and Tony Award nominee Ariana DeBose.

Best Musical

• Girl From the North Country
• Mr. Saturday Night
• Paradise Square
• Six
• A Strange Loop

Alt. Flying Over Sunset

Best Musical Revival

• Caroline, or Change
• Company
• The Music Man

Best Book of a Musical

• Girl From the North Country
• Mr. Saturday Night
• Paradise Square
• Six
• A Strange Loop

Alt. Flying Over Sunset

Best Original Score

• Mr. Saturday Night
• Mrs. Doubtfire
• Paradise Square
• Six
• A Strange Loop

Alt. Flying Over Sunset

Leading Actress in a Musical

• Sharon D. Clarke, Caroline, or Change
• Sutton Foster, The Music Man
• Joaquina Kalukango, Paradise Square
• Katrina Lenk, Company
• Mare Winningham, Girl From the North Country

Alt. Beanie Feldstein, Funny Girl

Leading Actor in a Musical

• Billy Crystal, Mr. Saturday Night
• Myles Frost, MJ the Musical
• Hugh Jackman, The Music Man
• Rob McClure, Mrs. Doubtfire
• Jaquel Spivey, A Strange Loop

Alt. Tony Yazbeck, Flying Over Sunset

Featured Actress in a Musical

• Jeanette Bayardelle, Girl From the North Country
• Shoshana Bean, Mr. Saturday Night
• L Morgan Lee, A Strange Loop
• Patti LuPone, Company
• Jane Lynch, Funny Girl

Alt. Jayne Houdyshell, The Music Man

Featured Actor in a Musical

• Matt Doyle, Company
• Claybourne Elder, Company
• Jefferson Mays, The Music Man
• John-Andrew Morrison, A Strange Loop
• David Paymer, Mr. Saturday Night

Alt. Shuler Hensley, The Music Man