2023 BAFTA winner predictions: Will ‘Banshees’ have the luck of the Irish or will ‘Everything’ be everywhere?
Do the BAFTAs really have it in for the Irish? On first glance, it wouldn’t seem so, especially looking at the domination Irish films and actors wielded on this year’s nominations. But how often do they actually win?
In the top category of Best Film, the BAFTAs have nominated Irish films just five times prior to this year and have given them the win just once. The Favourite (an Irish/British/U.S. co-production) lost to Roma in 2018, My Left Foot to Dead Poets Society in 1989, The Crying Game to Howards End in 1992, and Mrs. Brown to The Full Monty in 1997. The only win came from 1991’s The Commitments, which bested Best Picture Oscar winners Dances with Wolves and Silence of the Lambs (BAFTA eligibility overlap) plus Thelma & Louise.
Best Actor has had a bit more luck with Daniel Day-Lewis (a four-time winner) and Peter O’Toole but, speaking of Day-Lewis, his My Left Foot co-star Brenda Fricker, who won the supporting actress Oscar for her role in the film, wasn’t even nominated by BAFTA. American-born Irish actress Saoirse Ronan, the most recognized actress by BAFTA, is a five-time nominee but has yet to win. Ethiopian-born Irish actress Ruth Negga was recently nominated in supporting actress for Passing (2021), with Caitríona Balfe the same year (for Belfast).
This year’s BAFTA nominations are spilling over with Irish nominees, led by Martin McDonagh’s The Banshees of Inisherin‘s 10 nods and a Best Actor category with no less than three Irish actors: Colin Farrell for Banshees, Paul Mescal for Aftersun and Daryl McCormack for Good Luck to You, Leo Grande (McCormack is also nominated for Rising Star). Also on the Banshees train are supporting actor nominees Brendan Gleeson and Barry Keoghan and supporting actress nominee Kerry Condon. Colm Bairéad’s The Quiet Girl is up for Adapted Screenplay and Film Not in the English Language.
But can The Banshees of Inisherin become only the second Irish film ever to win big at BAFTA? BAFTA voters were big fans of McDonagh’s last work, the U.S./U.K.-produced Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, giving it five awards, including Best Film. Interestingly though, BAFTA Film and Director have matched for the last seven years at BAFTA all but once… when McDonagh lost to Guillermo del Toro for The Shape of Water.
While all members can vote for winners in most categories like Best Film, directing and acting, the reckoning and restructuring that took place in September 2020 after internal investigations revealed race and gender biases and more have created a new BAFTA landscape. While these new rules and expansions have started to make demonstrable changes in how and who is BAFTA-nominated, purely from a predictions standpoint it made some things infinitely more interesting and difficult. If you’re an avid awards watcher you know that the BAFTA Leading Actress category following the changes gave us one year where only 2/6 BAFTA nominees crossed over to the Oscars (2020) and last year it was absolutely zero. Those were both years where the top two vote getters from the longlists were automatically nominated (but we never officially knew who the top two were). In light of last year’s shocking result, BAFTA changed it to a top 3, a bit of a backtrack on their recent efforts and a clear push to stay more Oscars-relevant. This year, the Leading Actress category has 3/6 crossover with Oscar, but largely in light of BAFTA-nominated Viola Davis (The Woman King) and Danielle Deadwyler (Till) both surprisingly being left off the Oscar Best Actress final five.
The Netflix-backed German-language WWI drama All Quiet on the Western Front received the most BAFTA nominations this year with 14, tying the record set by Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon (2000) as the most nominated non-English language film in the BAFTA history. Those films are also among the most-nominated films in BAFTA history overall, coming second (alongside 2007’s Atonement) only to Gandhi (1982), the most-nominated film at the BAFTAs with 16 nods. The Banshees of Inisherin and Everything Everywhere All At Once followed All Quiet with 10 nominations each this year.
Last year, The Power of the Dog won Best Film (and Best Director) at BAFTA but only transferred the directing win over to the Oscars, where the non-BAFTA nominated CODA took Best Picture. Dune earned five wins at BAFTA (from its field-best 11 nominations), the most of any film, then six at the Oscars (again the most of any film). Three of the four BAFTA acting winners: Will Smith (King Richard), Troy Kotsur (CODA) and Ariana DeBose (West Side Story), went on to repeat their wins at the Oscars.
The 76th EE BAFTA Film Awards ceremony takes place at the Royal Festival Hall on Sunday February 19, 2023 and will be hosted by Richard E. Grant at 7 p.m. GMT (2 p.m. EST). British television personality Alison Hammond will host from backstage, giving viewers what’s billed as an “access-all-areas experience.” Additionally, presenters Vick Hope and BBC Radio 1 film critic Ali Plumb will host the red carpet pre-show.
Helen Mirren is set to lead a special tribute to the late Queen Elizabeth II, who died September 8, 2022. Mirren won a BAFTA and an Oscar for her portrayal of Britain’s longest-running monarch in the 2007 film The Queen.
“The Queen occupies a unique place in BAFTA’s history, a close association that spanned 50 years,” said the British Academy. “Through her various patronages, The Queen was renowned for her support of the U.K.’s creative industries.”
The special tribute will take place in the presence of the Queen’s grandson, with Prince William, who is President of the British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA), and Kate Middleton, who are expected to attend after a two-year absence at the ceremony.
Among the guests lined up to attend are Ana de Armas, Angela Bassett, Austin Butler, Barry Keoghan, Baz Luhrmann, Bill Nighy, Brendan Fraser, Brendan Gleeson, Carey Mulligan, Cate Blanchett, Charlotte Wells, Colin Farrell, Danielle Deadwyler, Daryl McCormack, Dolly De Leon, Eddie Redmayne, Emma Thompson, Gina Prince-Bythewood, Guillermo del Toro, Hong Chau, Jamie Lee Curtis, Ke Huy Quan, Kerry Condon, Martin McDonagh, Micheal Ward, Michelle Yeoh, Nan Goldin, Paul Mescal, Ruben Östlund, Sam Mendes and Viola Davis. Last year’s EE Rising Star winner Lashana Lynch returns to present the award to this year’s winner.
In addition to airing on BBC One and BBC iPlayer, the 76th EE BAFTA Film Awards will stream live from London on BritBox.
Here are my winner predictions for the 76th EE BAFTA Awards.
BEST FILM
Predicted winner: Everything Everywhere All At Once
Spoiler: The Banshees of Inisherin
Other nominees: All Quiet on the Western Front, Elvis, TÁR
All film voting members of BAFTA vote to determine the longlist, nominations and overall winner.
DIRECTOR
Predicted winner: Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert – Everything Everywhere All At Once
Spoiler: Martin McDonagh – The Banshees of Inisherin
Other nominees: Edward Berger – All Quiet on the Western Front, Park Chan-wook – Decision To Leave, Baz Luhrmann – Elvis
In the final round, all film voting members vote to determine the winning film.
LEADING ACTOR
Predicted winner: Colin Farrell in The Banshees of Inisherin
Spoiler: Brendan Fraser in The Whale
Other nominees: Austin Butler in Elvis, Daryl McCormack in Good Luck to You, Leo Grande; Paul Mescal in Aftersun, Bill Nighy in Living
In the final round, all film voting members vote to determine the winning performance.
LEADING ACTRESS
Predicted winner: Cate Blanchett in TÁR
Spoiler: Michelle Yeoh in Everything Everywhere All At Once
Other nominees: Ana de Armas in Blonde, Viola Davis in The Woman King, Danielle Deadwyler in Till, Emma Thompson in Good Luck to You, Leo Grande
In the final round, all film voting members vote to determine the winning performance.
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Predicted winner: Ke Huy Quan in Everything Everywhere All At Once
Spoiler: Brendan Gleeson in The Banshees of Inisherin
Other nominees: Barry Keoghan in The Banshees of Inisherin, Eddie Redmayne in The Good Nurse, Albrecht Schuch in All Quiet on the Western Front, Micheal Ward in Empire of Light
In the final round, all film voting members vote to determine the winning performance.
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Predicted winner: Angela Bassett in Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Spoiler: Kerry Condon in The Banshees of Inisherin
Other nominees: Hong Chau in The Whale, Jamie Lee Curtis in Everything Everywhere All At Once, Dolly De Leon in Triangle of Sadness, Carey Mulligan in She Said
In the final round, all film voting members vote to determine the winning performance.
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Predicted winner: All Quiet on the Western Front
Spoiler: Living
Other nominees: The Quiet Girl, She Said, The Whale
In the final round of voting, all film voting members will vote for the winning film.
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Predicted winner: The Banshees of Inisherin
Spoiler: Everything Everywhere All At Once
Other nominees: The Fabelmans, TÁR, Triangle of Sadness
In the final round of voting, all film voting members will vote for the winning film.
OUTSTANDING BRITISH FILM
Predicted winner: The Banshees of Inisherin
Spoiler: Aftersun
Other nominees: Brian And Charles, Empire of Light; Good Luck to You, Leo Grande; Living, Roald Dahl’s Matilda The Musical, See How They Run, The Swimmers, The Wonder
In the final round, all film voting members vote to determine the winning film.
OUTSTANDING DEBUT BY A BRITISH WRITER, DIRECTOR OR PRODUCER
Predicted winner: Charlotte Wells, director/writer of Aftersun
Spoiler: Blue Jean
Other nominees: Electric Malady; Good Luck to You, Leo Grande; Rebellion
A jury determines the longlist, nominations and overall winner in this category.
FILM NOT IN ENGLISH LANGUAGE
Predicted winner: All Quiet on the Western Front
Spoiler: The Quiet Girl
Other nominees: Argentina, 1985; Corsage, Decision to Leave
This chapter voted to nominate five films and will vote for the overall winning film.
ANIMATED FILM
Predicted winner: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Spoiler: Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
Other nominees: Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Turning Red
This chapter voted to nominate four films and will vote for the winning film.
DOCUMENTARY
Predicted winner: Fire of Love
Spoiler: Moonage Daydream
Other nominees: All That Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, Navalny
In the final round, the Documentary opt-in chapter votes to determine the winning film.
ORIGINAL SCORE
Predicted winner: All Quiet on the Western Front
Spoiler: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Other nominees: Babylon, The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All At Once
In the final round, all film voting members vote to determine the winning film.
EDITING
Predicted winner: Top Gun: Maverick
Spoiler: Everything Everywhere All At Once
Other nominees: All Quiet on the Western Front, The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis
In the final round, all film voting members vote to determine the winning film.
CINEMATOGRAPHY
Predicted winner: All Quiet on the Western Front
Spoiler: Elvis
Other nominees: The Batman, Empire of Light, Top Gun: Maverick
In the final round, all film voting members vote to determine the winning film.
PRODUCTION DESIGN
Predicted winner: Elvis
Spoiler: All Quiet on the Western Front
Other nominees: Babylon, The Batman, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
In the final round, all film voting members vote to determine the winning film.
COSTUME DESIGN
Predicted winner: Elvis
Spoiler: All Quiet on the Western Front
Other nominees:
In the final round, all film voting members vote to determine the winning film.
MAKE UP & HAIR
Predicted winner: The Whale
Spoiler: All Quiet on the Western Front
Other nominees:
In the final round, all film voting members vote to determine the winning film.
SOUND
Predicted winner: Top Gun: Maverick
Spoiler: All Quiet on the Western Front
Other nominees: Avatar: The Way of Water, Elvis, TÁR
In the final round, all film voting members vote to determine the winning film.
SPECIAL VISUAL EFFECTS
Predicted winner: Avatar: The Way of Water
Spoiler: All Quiet on the Western Front
Other nominees: The Batman, Everything Everywhere All At Once, Top Gun: Maverick
In the final round, all film voting members vote to determine the winning film.
CASTING
Predicted winner: Everything Everywhere All At Once
Spoiler: Elvis
Other nominees: Aftersun, All Quiet on the Western Front, Triangle of Sadness
In the final round, all film voting members vote to determine the winning film.
BRITISH SHORT ANIMATION
Predicted winner: The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse
Spoiler: Your Mountain is Waiting
Other nominee: Middle Watch
In the final round, all film voting members are invited to join an opt-in chapter to vote for the overall winning short animation.
BRITISH SHORT FILM
Predicted winner: An Irish Goodbye
Spoiler: Bazigaga
Other nominees: The Ballad Of Olive Morris, Bus Girl, A Drifting Up
In the final round, all film voting members are invited to join an opt-in chapter to vote for the overall winning short film.
EE RISING STAR
Predicted winner: Emma Mackey
Spoiler: Daryl McCormack
Other nominees: Naomi Ackie, Sheila Atim, Aimee Lou Wood
In the final round, the winner is voted on and selected by the public.
He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Hollywood Critics Association (HCA) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.
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