2023 Emmy Predictions: Drama Series categories are an HBO showdown
Now that we’re a couple of weeks into April and every series imaginable has premiered (or will within the next two weeks), it’s time to take a look at the drama categories at this year’s Emmys. Alternatively, we could refer to them as the HBO categories because HBO, which always does well at the Emmys, is going to dominate the nominations in these categories.
Four series’ from HBO are going to secure the cable channel a lion’s share of nominations: House of the Dragon, Succession, The Last of Us, and The White Lotus. Yes, you read that correctly: The White Lotus (unofficially dubbed The White Lotus: Sicily this season) has been moved into drama for being considered a continuation as it follows Tanya (last year’s limited series supporting actress Emmy winner Jennifer Coolidge) from season 1 in Hawaii to season two in Italy. Specifically, the Television Academy has a rule about recurring characters and continuing story threads like what we saw happen with HBO’s Big Little Lies, FX’s American Horror Story franchise and PBS’s Downton Abbey. They have all been massive successes, both with critics and audiences. All of them had viral moments on the internet and could be considered water-cooler series with the way the internet explodes weekly for them. These four shows will likely garner nominations in all major categories, including the four main performance categories. They could even take up 50% of the Series category, only leaving four spots to be fought over. Supporting Actor could be HBO’s biggest fight though, as they have the chance to take at least six spots (four of them possibly being Succession performers). The leads from all four series will likely earn themselves nominations and will compete with one another for the title, including two non-binary actors Emma D’Arcy in House of the Dragon and Bella Ramsey in The Last of Us, who have opted to go into the Lead Actress category. Ramsey’s co-star Pedro Pascal will have the unique distinction of potentially competing against himself as he also leads the Disney+ hit The Mandalorian. He was not nominated for the show’s first two seasons while several actors grabbed supporting and/guest nods so his fate is up in the air.
While discussing lead actress, category placements are already a hot button topic this season. While it’s unclear yet how HBO or individual actors will submit, it makes most sense for Sarah Snook to be put into Lead Actress for her performance in Succession. While she could have been considered lead instead of supporting for season three, the final season has proven that her role as Shiv has expanded and brought her to the forefront, especially with the events of episode 3 of the final season. Another premium channel, Showtime, has switched one of its actresses into lead for its most popular show, Yellowjackets; Sophie Nélisse, who plays the younger version of Shauna, will now compete in the Lead Actress category.
Yellowjackets has returned with a buzzy second season that will likely grab similar nominations to the first season, including nominations for both lead actress Melanie Lynksey and supporting actress Christina Ricci. Don’t count out Elijah Wood for his performance in the new season, as well. Better Call Saul is over, and it seems the final season might grab a nomination here and there, specifically Bob Odenkirk; will Rhea Seehorn receive another nomination for the show for its final season? The Handmaid’s Tale could certainly get a couple of performance nominations, as it always has, but will it be able to go all the way to a Series nomination? The Crown came back for its fifth season in November and everyone discussed Elizabeth Debicki’s turn as Princess Diana. The Crown has always done well at the Emmys, and this year will likely be no different. There are too many shows for anyone to watch all of them, but if there’s one thing that’s certain: HBO will have the last laugh in drama.
The nomination round of Emmy voting takes place from June 15 to June 26, with the Emmy nominations announced Wednesday, July 12. The Creative Arts Emmy Awards will once again be presented over two consecutive nights on Saturday, September 9 and Sunday, September 10, with an edited presentation of the ceremonies to be broadcast on FXX the following weekend.
The 75th Primetime Emmy Awards will take place on Monday, September 18, and air live on FOX at 8:00pm ET/ 5:00pm PT.
Here are my 2023 Emmy nomination predictions in the Drama Series categories, with guest, writing and directing predictions at a later date.
Outstanding Drama Series
- Better Call Saul (AMC)
- House of the Dragon (HBO)
- Succession (HBO)
- The Crown (Netflix)
- The Last of Us (HBO)
- The Mandalorian (Disney+)
- The White Lotus (HBO)
- Yellowjackets (Showtime)
Other contenders: Andor (Disney+); Yellowstone (Paramount+); The Boys (Prime Video); The Handmaid’s Tale (Hulu); Industry (HBO Max)
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series
- Emma D’Arcy, House of the Dragon (HBO)
- Melanie Lynskey, Yellowjackets (Showtime)
- Elisabeth Moss, The Handmaid’s Tale (Hulu)
- Bella Ramsey, The Last of Us (HBO)
- Sarah Snook, Succession (HBO)
- Imelda Staunton, The Crown (Netflix)
Other contenders: Sophie Nélisse, Yellowjackets (Showtime); Helen Mirren, 1923 (Paramount+); Keri Russell, The Diplomat (Netflix); Tawny Cypress, Yellowjackets (Showtime); Juliette Lewis, Yellowjackets (Showtime)
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series
- Paddy Considine, House of the Dragon (HBO)
- Brian Cox, Succession (HBO)
- Bob Odenkirk, Better Call Saul (AMC)
- Pedro Pascal, The Last of Us (HBO)
- Jeremy Strong, Succession (HBO)
- Dominic West, The Crown (Netflix)
Other contenders: Antony Starr, The Boys (Prime Video); Diego Luna, Andor (Disney+); Kevin Costner, Yellowstone (Paramount+); Matthew Rhys, Perry Mason (HBO); Jeff Bridges, The Old Man (FX)
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series
- J. Smith Cameron, Succession (HBO)
- Olivia Cooke, House of the Dragon (HBO)
- Jennifer Coolidge, The White Lotus (HBO)
- Elizabeth Debicki, The Crown (Netflix)
- Ann Dowd, The Handmaid’s Tale (Hulu)
- Aubrey Plaza, The White Lotus (HBO)
- Lesley Manville, The Crown (Netflix)
- Christina Ricci, Yellowjackets (Showtime)
Other contenders: Rhea Seehorn, Better Call Saul (AMC); Fiona Shaw, Andor (Disney+); Lauren Ambrose, Yellowjackets (Showtime); Samantha Hanratty, Yellowjackets (Showtime); Eve Best, House of the Dragon (HBO)
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series
- F. Murray Abraham, The White Lotus (HBO)
- Nicholas Braun, Succession (HBO)
- Kieran Culkin, Succession (HBO)
- Giancarlo Esposito, Better Call Saul (AMC)
- Matthew Macfadyen, Succession (HBO)
- Jonathan Pryce, The Crown (Netflix)
- Alan Ruck, Succession (HBO)
- Matt Smith, House of the Dragon (HBO)
Other contenders: John Lithgow, The Old Man (FX); Jonathan Banks, Better Call Saul (AMC); Elijah Wood, Yellowjackets (Showtime); Michael Imperioli, The White Lotus: Sicily (HBO); Stellan Skarsgard, Andor (Disney+)
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