2023 Emmy Predictions: Limited Series and Television Movie categories are a mad scramble to beat the deadline
Does it seem like we’re getting even more limited and anthology series programming right now? Probably because we are. New Emmys, new rules.
Limited and Anthology Series (and Drama Series) were on a slippery slope the last few years with the eligibility period stretching past the May 31 deadline as long as the majority of episodes aired prior to that deadline. These ‘hanging episodes’ are now no longer eligible and all must air nationally in the U.S. before May 31 in order to qualify for this year’s Emmys. While that’s never an issue for a streamer like Netflix, who drops all episodes at once, broadcast network, premium cable and other streamers have had to rethink their strategy this year, cramming much of their content beginning in early April or dropping two or three in the first week before going weekly with episodes in order to come in under the cutoff.
However, unlike Comedy and Drama Series, which have eight nomination slots, Limited or Anthology Series still has just five, which has been creating some very surprising lineups in recent years (Netflix’s Inventing Anna over HBO’s Station Eleven last year?) that are the result of many factors; popularity and visibility, critical praise, and where they might have crossed over with Emmys, SAG and the Globes. The acting categories should end up with six slots but as each year gets more and more competitive here, so there will be some major snubs.
This year’s likely Inventing Anna will be another huge Netflix property, Dahmer: Monster – The Jeffrey Dahmer Story, in terms of its global popularity. A SAG and BAFTA nominee, a Golden Globe winner (and multi-nominee), the show was a viewership, well, monster, for the streamer and with previous Emmy winners Evan Peters and Richard Jenkins leading the cast along with Emmy nominee Niecy Nash-Betts, you can bet that the Emmys will also bite. Black Bird, from AppleTV+, has proved an awards favorite with supporting actor wins from the Golden Globes and Critics’ Choice for Paul Walter Hauser and nominations for both him and lead Taron Egerton. Both streamers have several contenders in this category but these are their main players and best bets.
[4/12 UPDATE: With the breaking news yesterday that Netflix will submit Beef in the limited series categories, there are changes in that category as well as for lead actor and actress contenders Steven Yeun and Ali Wong]
HBO and HBO Max bring a lot to the table as well with two upcoming series’ aiming to stake a claim here. Love & Death (from HBO Max) tells a story that just got the limited series treatment last year (Hulu’s Candy), the story of adultery and murder in a small Texas town in 1980. Packed with an Emmy-nominated cast led by Elizabeth Olsen (WandaVision) and Jesse Plemons (Fargo) plus Lily Rabe and Patrick Fugit. The White House Plumbers (HBO) aims to have fun with the Watergate and Pentagon Papers scandal of the mid-1970s with Emmy winners Woody Harrel on and Justin Theroux. One thing HBO won’t have here is last year’s blowout winner The White Lotus. When the anthology series returned for a second season and Jennifer Coolidge (one of season one’s 10 Emmy wins) did as well as the same character, that pushed the show into Drama Series contention.
The Outstanding Television Movie has for a while now been the stepchild of the Emmys. The last decade alone has seen it merged with limited series (then called ‘miniseries’) then back in its own category but often the dumping ground for a canceled series to have a one-off (Ray Donovan, Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt and Deadwood recently) and then the 1-2-3 punch of Black Mirror episodes of the anthology series being able to submit as individual TV Movies raised the Television Academy eyebrows. Not only to seek out a way to curtail the dominance but most of these entries were barely hitting the hour mark and in 2019 the rules were changed, requiring a 75-minute minimum runtime for eligible submissions. Since that, the winners here have been an intended theatrical release going straight to HBO (2020’s Bad Education), a Dolly Parton Christmas movie (2021’s Dolly Parton’s Christmas on the Square) and a Chip ‘n Dale Disney cartoon (2022’s Chip ‘n Dale: Rescue Rangers).
The blurred line of what is (or was) a feature film vs a television movie began a heated debate during the peak of the pandemic and we’re really seeing the results now. The merger of Disney and 20th Century Fox (now Studios) found several of its Fox Searchlight (now Searchlight Studios) titles pulled from theatrical release and premiere on Hulu or Disney+ instead, making them eligible here, namely films like Fire Island and Prey. On the flip side, the Emma Thompson-starrer Good Luck to You, Leo Grande seemed prime for a TV-only release but Searchlight held it for a theatrical release and an Oscar campaign for Thompson that ultimately didn’t pan out other than a Golden Globe nomination. It’s probably a safe bet to say she’d be the Emmy frontrunner had the film only had a television release in the U.S.
Dolly Parton is back again this year with another Christmas contender (NBC’s Dolly Parton’s Mountain Magic) so we can’t count her out, and Searchlight Pictures choice to keep Fire Island out of theaters and premiere on Hulu should secure it a spot here. Same goes for 20th Century’s Prey (also Hulu) and the award-winning hit Weird: The Al Yankovic Story, which premiered at the 2022 Toronto International Film Festival in the Midnight section but as a Roku Original was a television streaming debut. A DGA and WGA nominee and a PGA winner (along with several other accolades), the satirical biopic could be a favorite to win.
Putting all of these together and the nominations in the four acting categories should be a high power bunch that includes Oscar winner Jessica Chastain and Rachel Weisz in lead actress, a recent lead actor winner (Ewan McGregor) in the running again for lead actor and supporting contenders full of Oscar winners like Olivia Colman, Anna Paquin and Meryl Streep, and previous Emmy winners like Claire Danes, Cherry Jones, Merritt Wever and Murray Bartlett.
The nomination round of Emmy voting takes place from June 15 to June 26, with the Emmy nominations announced Wednesday, July 12. The Creative Arts Emmy Awards will once again be presented over two consecutive nights on Saturday, September 9 and Sunday, September 10, with an edited presentation of the ceremonies to be broadcast on FXX the following weekend.
The 75th Primetime Emmy Awards will take place on Monday, September 18, and air live on FOX at 8:00pm ET/ 5:00pm PT.
Here are my 2023 Emmy nomination predictions in the Limited or Anthology Series or Movie categories, with writing and directing predictions at a later date.
Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series
- Beef (Netflix)
- Black Bird (AppleTV+)
- Dahmer: Monster – The Jeffrey Dahmer Story (Netflix)
- Love & Death (HBO Max)
- White House Plumbers (HBO)
Other contenders: Daisy Jones and the Six (Prime Video), The English (Prime Video), Fleishman is in Trouble (FX), Obi-Wan Kenobi (Disney+), The Patient (FX), Welcome to Chippendales (Hulu)
Outstanding Television Movie
- Boston Strangler (Hulu)
- Dolly Parton’s Mountain Magic (NBC)
- Fire Island (Hulu)
- Prey (Hulu)
- Weird: The Al Yankovic Story (Roku)
Other contenders: Father of the Bride (HBO Max), Shotgun Wedding (Prime Video), Somebody I Used to Know (Prime Video)
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie
- Taron Egerton – Black Bird (Apple TV+)
- Ewan McGregor – Obi-Wan Kenobi (Disney+)
- Evan Peters – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story” (Netflix)
- Daniel Radcliffe – Weird: The Al Yankovic Story (Roku Channel)
- Ben Whishaw – This is Going to Hurt (AMC+)
- Steven Yeun – Beef (Netflix)
Other contenders: Steve Carell – The Patient (FX), Woody Harrelson – White House Plumbers (HBO), Kumail Nanjiani – Welcome to Chippendales (Hulu), Jesse Plemons – Love & Death (HBO Max), Michael Shannon – George and Tammy (Showtime), Chaske Spencer – The English (Prime Video)
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie
- Emily Blunt – The English (Prime Video)
- Jessica Chastain – George and Tammy (Showtime)
- Riley Keough – Daisy Jones and the Six (Prime Video)
- Elizabeth Olsen – Love & Death (HBO Max)
- Rachel Weisz – Dead Ringers (Prime Video)
- Ali Wong – Beef (Netflix)
Other contenders: Lizzy Caplan – Fleishman is in Trouble (FX), Vera Farmiga – Five Days at Memorial (Apple TV+), Dominique Fishback – Swarm (Prime Video), Keira Knightley – Boston Strangler (Hulu), Kathryn Hahn – Tiny Beautiful Things (Hulu)
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie
- Murray Bartlett – Welcome to Chippendales (Hulu)
- Domhnall Gleeson – The Patient (FX)
- Paul Walter Hauser – Black Bird (Apple TV+)
- Richard Jenkins – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story (Netflix)
- Ray Liotta – Black Bird (Apple TV+)
- Bowen Yang – Fire Island (Hulu)
Other contenders: Hayden Christensen – Obi-Wan Kenobi (Disney+), Patrick Fugit – Love & Death (HBO Max), David Alan Grier – The Patient (FX), Ciarán Hinds – The English (Prime Video), Christian Slater – Fleishman is in Trouble (FX)
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie
- Olivia Colman – Great Expectations (FX)
- Claire Danes – Fleishman Is in Trouble (FX)
- Cherry Jones – Five Days at Memorial (Apple TV+)
- Niecy Nash-Betts – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story (Netflix)
- Lily Rabe – Love & Death (HBO Max)
- Merritt Wever – Tiny Beautiful Things (Hulu)
Other contenders: Annaleigh Ashford – Welcome to Chippendales (Hulu), Carrie Coon – Boston Strangler (Hulu), Judy Greer – White House Plumbers (HBO), Lena Headey – White House Plumbers (HBO), Anna Paquin – A Friend of the Family (Peacock), Meryl Streep – Extrapolations (Apple TV+)
He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Hollywood Critics Association (HCA) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.
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