2023 Gotham Awards Predictions: ‘All of Us Strangers,’ ‘Past Lives’ ‘Poor Things’ Could All Prevail

Erik Anderson November 24, 2023

The 33rd Gotham Awards kick off the 2023/2024 awards season on November 27 and while it’s good to remember it’s a very small sample group of critics that decide on them, the perks of being first can create starter buzz or validate pre-season chatter. While it may not always be “how crucial these Gotham Awards are for your entire career’s trajectory,” as Kim Kardashian’s publicist in American Horror Story: Delicate says, it’s not nothing.

Looking at the nominations, Andrew Haigh’s All of Us Strangers leads with four: Best International Feature, Outstanding Lead Performance (Andrew Scott), Outstanding Supporting Performance and Best Screenplay, the latter of which is probably its best shot for a win. Scott faces stiff competition from the next two nomination leaders, Greta Lee in Past Lives and Teyana Taylor in A Thousand and One as well as Lily Gladstone in The Unknown Country. Foy could triumph but she’ll have Charles Melton in May December, Da’Vine Joy Randolph in The Holdovers and maybe even Ryan Gosling in Barbie. Best International Feature is probably one of the most competitive categories, where Strangers will face Anatomy of a Fall, Poor Things, Tótem and The Zone of Interest. Almost any of these could win. I feel like Poor Things has the advantage despite being blanked everywhere else.

Past Lives should be able to easily secure the Best Feature win with A Thousand and One giving it some chase and director Celine Song is a sure bet for the Breakthrough Director Award, of which she should win many this season.

In television, I think Beef, Anne Rice’s Interview with a Vampire, The Last of Us and Swarm as potential winners.

Several Gotham Icon & Creator Tribute Awards will be handed out a Cipriani Hall on the 27th, including Bradley Cooper’s Maestro, Greta Gerwig’s Barbie, George C. Wolfe’s Rustin, Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon, Michael Mann’s Ferrari and Ben Affleck’s Air.

Here are my winner predictions for the 33rd Gotham Awards.

Best Feature

Predicted winner: Past Lives – Celine Song, director; David Hinojosa, Pamela Koffler, Christine Vachon, producers (A24)

Could win: A Thousand and One – A.V. Rockwell, director; Julia Lebedev, Rishi Rajani, Eddie Vaisman, Lena Waithe, Bred Weston, producers (Focus Features)

Other nominees: Passages – Ira Sachs, director; Saïd Ben Saïd, Michel Merkt, producers (MUBI), Reality – Tina Satter, director; Brad Becker-Parton, Riva Marker, Greg Nobile, Noah Stahl, producers (HBO Films), Showing Up – Kelly Reichardt, director; Neil Kopp, Vincent Savino, Anish Savjani, producers (A24)

Best International Feature

Predicted winner: All of Us Strangers – Andrew Haigh, director; Graham Broadbent, Peter Czemin, Sarah Harvey, producers (Searchlight Pictures)

Could win: Poor Things – Yorgos Lanthimos, director; Ed Guiney, Yorgos Lanthimos, Andrew Lowe, Emma Stone, producers (Searchlight Pictures)

Other nominees: Anatomy of a Fall – Justine Triet, director; Marie-Ange Luciani, David Thion, producers (NEON), Tótem – Lila Avilés, director; Lila Avilés, Tatiana Graullera, Louise Riousse, producers (Sideshow/Janus Films), The Zone of Interest – Jonathan Glazer, director; Ewa Puszczynska, James Wilson, producers (A24)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted winner: Four Daughters – Kaouther Ben Hania, director; Nadim Cheikhrouha, producer (Kino Lorber)

Could win: 20 Days in Mariupol – Mstyslav Chernov, director; Raney Aronson-Rath, Mstyslav Chernov, Derl McCrudden, Michelle Mizner, producers (PBS Distribution)

Other nominees: Against the Tide – Sarvnik Kaur, director; Koval Bhatia, Sarvnik Kaur, producers (Snooker Club Films, A Little Anarky Films); Apolonia, Apolonia – Lea Glob, director; Sidsel Lønvig Siersted, producer (Danish Documentary Production); Our Body – Claire Simon, director; Kristina Larsen, producer (Cinema Guild)

Breakthrough Director Award, Presented by Cadillac

Predicted winner: Celine Song, Past Lives (A24)

Could win: Raven Jackson, All Dirt Roads Taste of Salt (A24)

Other nominees: Georgia Oakley, Blue Jean (Magnolia Pictures); Michelle Garza Cervera, Huesera (XYZ Films); A.V. Rockwell, A Thousand and One (Focus Features)

Best Screenplay

Predicted winner: All of Us Strangers, Andrew Haigh (Searchlight Pictures)

Could win: R.M.N., Cristian Mungiu (IFC Films)

Other nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, Justine Triet, Arthur Harari (NEON); May December, Samy Burch (Netflix); The Zone of Interest, Jonathan Glazer (A24)

Outstanding Lead Performance

Predicted winner: Lily Gladstone, The Unknown Country (Music Box Films)

Could win: Greta Lee, Past Lives (A24)

Other nominees: Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Origin (NEON); Franz Rogowski, Passages (MUBI); Babetida Sadjo, Our Father, The Devil (Cineverse); Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers (Searchlight Pictures) ; Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (A24); Teyana Taylor, A Thousand and One (Focus Features); Michelle Williams, Showing Up (A24); Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction (Orion Pictures / Amazon MGM Studios)

Outstanding Supporting Performance

Predicted winner: Charles Melton, May December (Netflix)

Could win: Claire Foy, All of Us Strangers (Searchlight Films)

Other nominees: Juliette Binoche, The Taste of Things (IFC Films); Penélope Cruz, Ferrari (NEON); Jamie Foxx, They Cloned Tyrone (Netflix); Ryan Gosling, Barbie (Warner Bros. Pictures); Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (IFC Films); Sandra Hüller, The Zone of Interest (A24); Rachel McAdams, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (Lionsgate); Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (Focus Features)

Breakthrough Series – Under 40 minutes

Predicted winner: Beef, Lee Sung Jin, creator; Ravi Nandan, Alli Reich, Jake Schreier, Ali Wong, Steven Yeun, executive producers (Netflix)

Could win: Swarm, Donald Glover, Janine Nabers, creators; Ibra Ake, Donald Glover, Stephen Glover, Janine Nabers Jamal Olor, Steven Prinz, Michael Schaefer, Fam Udeorji, executive producers (Amazon Studios)

Other nominees: High School, Clea DuVall, Sara Quin, Tegan Quin, creators; Clea Duvall, Dede Gardner, Laura Kittrell, Jeremy Kleiner, Sara Quin, Tegan Quin, Carina Sposato, executive producers (Amazon Freevee); I’m A Virgo, Boots Riley, creator; Tze Chun, Michael Ellenberg, Marcus Gardley, Carver Karaszewski, Jharrel Jerome, Boots Riley, Rebecca Rivo, Lindsey Springer, executive producers (Prime Video); Rain Dogs, Cash Carraway, creator; Cash Carraway, Sally Woodward Gentle, Lee Morris, executive producers (HBO | Max)

Breakthrough Series – Over 40 minutes

Predicted winner: The Last of Us – Craig Mazin, Neil Druckmann, creators; Neil Druckmann, Craig Mazin, Rose Lam, Asad Qizilbash, Carolyn Strauss, Carter Swan, Evan Wells, executive producers; (HBO | Max)

Could win: Anne Rice’s Interview with the Vampire – Rolin Jones, creator; Mark Johnson, Rolin Jones, Anne Rice, Christopher Rice, Alan Taylor, executive producers (AMC)

Other nominees: Dead Ringers – Alice Birch, creator; Alice Birch, Anne Carey, Sean Durkin, Megan Ellison, Erica Kay, Ali Krug, Sue Naegle, Stacy O’Neil, David Robinson, James G. Robinson, Polly Stokes, Barbara Wall, Rachel Weisz, executive directors (Prime Video); The English – Hugo Blick, creator; Hugo Blick, Emily Blunt, Greg Brenman, executive producers (Prime Video); A Small Light – Tony Phelan, Joan Rater, creator; Susanna Fogel, William Harper, Avi Nir, Tony Phelan, Joan Rater, Lisa Roos, Alon Shtruzman, Peter Traugott, executive producers (National Geographic); Telemarketers – Adam Bhala Lough, Sam Lipman-Stern, directors; Nancy Abraham, Dani Bernfeld, David Gordon Green, Lisa Heller, Jody Hill, Brandon James, Sam Lipman-Stern, Adam Bhala Lough, Danny McBride, Tina Nguyen, Benny Safdie, Josh Safdie, Greg Stewart, executive producers (HBO | Max)

Outstanding Performance in a New Series

Predicted winner: Dominique Fishback, Swarm (Amazon Studios)

Could win: Ali Wong, Beef (Netflix)

Other nominees: Jacob Anderson, Anne Rice’s Interview with The Vampire (AMC); Jharrel Jerome, I’m A Virgo (Prime Video); Natasha Lyonne, Poker Face (Peacock); Bel Powley, A Small Light (National Geographic); Bella Ramsey, The Last of Us (HBO | Max); Chaske Spencer, The English (Prime Video); Rachel Weisz, Dead Ringers ((Prime Video); Steven Yeun, Beef (Netflix)

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Erik Anderson

Erik Anderson is the founder/owner and Editor-in-Chief of AwardsWatch and has always loved all things Oscar, having watched the Academy Awards since he was in single digits; making lists, rankings and predictions throughout the show. This led him down the path to obsessing about awards. Much later, he found himself in film school and the film forums of GoldDerby, and then migrated over to the former Oscarwatch (now AwardsDaily), before breaking off to create AwardsWatch in 2013.

He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Hollywood Critics Association (HCA) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.