2023 Oscar Predictions: ANIMATED FEATURE, DOCUMENTARY FEATURE and INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM (November)

The Critics’ Choice Documentary Awards were handed out this weekend, where Ryan White’s Good Night Oppy was the dominating winner, taking Best Documentary Feature and Best Director among its five wins.

After years of the CCA winner finding itself snubbed for an Oscar nomination, last season that changed when the overwhelming critics’ favorite and CCA winner Summer of Soul won the Academy Award for Best Documentary Feature. Will they strike gold again or will the doc branch revert back to its non-populist ways? Add to that nominations from Gotham, Cinema Eye Honors and International Documentary Association and this race starts to take shape.

British Independent Film Awards (BIFA) and European Film Awards (EFA) nominations are in, with insights into the international feature film category, where Belgium’s Close pulls out ahead with mentions from both. Gotham opted for Corsage (Austria), Decision to Leave (South Korea) and Saint Omer (France) among the Oscar-eligible contenders.

Animated Feature looks good for Netflix this year with Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio as there isn’t a strong Walt Disney or Pixar film to challenge it. That isn’t to say that Strange World or Turning Red couldn’t, but neither feel like a Soul or Encanto…yet. And, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On is officially eligible here.

Coming up soon will be the Film Independent Spirit Awards nominations on 11/22 and the Gotham Awards on 11/28.

Here are my 2023 Oscar predictions in Animated Feature, Documentary Feature and International Feature Film for November.

ANIMATED FEATURE

Green – moves up ↑ Red – moves down ↓ Blue – new entry ♦

1. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (Netflix)
2. Turning Red (Walt Disney/Pixar)
3. Strange World (Walt Disney)
4. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (A24)
5. The Bad Guys (Universal Pictures) ↑

6. Wendell & Wild (Netflix) ↓
7. Minions: The Rise of Gru (Universal Pictures)
8. Lightyear (Walt Disney/Pixar)
9. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish (Dreamworks Animation)
10. Luck (Apple Original Films) ↑

Other contenders (alphabetical)

• Ainbo: Spirit of the Amazon (Shout! Studios)
• The Bob’s Burgers Movie (20th Century Studios)
• DC League of Super Pets (Warner Bros)
• The Deer King (GKIDS)
• Drifting Home (Netflix)
• Inu-oh (GKIDS)
• My Father’s Dragon (Netflix)
• Paws of Fury: The Legend of Hank (Paramount Pictures)
• Pinocchio (Walt Disney)
• Scrooge: A Christmas Carol (Netflix)
• The Sea Beast (Netflix)
• Unicorn Wars (GKIDS)

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Green – moves up ↑ Red – moves down ↓ Blue – new entry ♦

1. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (NEON) – CEH, Gotham, IDA
2. All That Breathes (HBO Documentary Films) – CEH, Gotham, IDA
3. The Territory (National Geographic) – CEH, Gotham
4. Navalny (HBO Documentary Films/CNN/Warner Bros) – CCA, CEH, IDA
5. Fire of Love (National Geographic/NEON) ↑ – CCA, CEH, IDA

6. Descendent (Netflix) ↓ – CCA
7. Good Night Oppy (Amazon Studios) ↑ – CCA
8. Retrograde (National Geographic) ↓
9. The Janes (HBO Documentary Films) ↓ – CCA
10. Aftershock (Hulu) ↓ – CCA
11. Moonage Dream (HBO Documentary Films/NEON) ↓ – CCA
12. Beba (NEON)
13. Young Plato (Autolook Films) ♦ – BIFA, IDA
14. Mija (Disney Original Documentary) – IDA
15. A House Made of Splinters (TBD) ♦ – EFA, IDA

Other contenders (alphabetical)

• The Automat (A Slice of Pie Productions) – CCA
• Bad Axe (IFC Films)
• The Beatles: Get Back (Disney Original Documentary)
• Chernobyl: The Lost Tapes (HBO Documentary Films)
• Cow (IFC Films)
• The Exiles (TBD)
• Freedom on Fire: Ukraine’s Fight for Freedom (TBD)
• Gabby Giffords Won’t Back Down (Briarcliff Entertainment) – CCA
• Hallelujah: Leonard Cohen, A Journey, A Song (Sony Pictures Classics)
• I Didn’t See You There (TBD)
• If These Walls Could Sing (Disney Original Documentary)
• Is That Black Enough For You? (Netflix)
• Katrina Babies – IDA
• Last Flight Home (MTV Documentary Films)
• Lucy and Desi (Amazon Studios)
• Louis Armstrong’s Black & Blues (Apple Original Films)
• A Night of Knowing Nothing – CEH
• No Simple Way Home – IDA
• The Return of Tanya Tucker – Featuring Brandi Carlile (Sony Pictures Classics)
• Riotsville, U.S.A. (Magnolia Pictures)
• Sidney (Apple Original Films) – CCA
• Salvatore: Shoemaker of Dreams (Sony Pictures Classics)
• “Sr.” (Netflix)
• Three Minutes: A Lengthening (NEON) What We Leave Behind – Gotham

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

Green – moves up ↑ Red – moves down ↓ Blue – new entry ♦

1. Close (Belgium) ↑ – BIFA, EFA
2. Decision to Leave (South Korea) ↓ – BIFA, Gotham
3. Saint Omer (France) – Gotham
4. Argentina, 1985 (Argentina)
5. All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany)

6. Bardo, or False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths (Mexico)
7. Corsage (Austria) ↑ – EFA, Gotham
8. Holy Spider (Denmark) ↓ – EFA
9. Alcarràs (Spain) – EFA
10. EO (Poland)
11. Klondike (Ukraine)
12. Joyland (Pakistan) ↑
13. The Quiet Girl (Ireland) ↑
14. The Blue Caftan (Morocco) ♦
15. The Happiest Man in the World (North Macedonia) ↓

Other contenders (alphabetical)

• A Ballad (Bosnia-Herzegovina)
• Boy from Heaven (Sweden)
• Butterfly on a Windowpane (Nepal)
• Cinema Sabaya (Israel)
• Goddamned Asura (Taiwan)
• Mars One (Brazil)
• Narcosis (Netherlands)
• Nostalgia (Italy)
• A Piece of Sky (Switzerland)
• Plan 75 (Japan)
• Return to Seoul (Cambodia)
• Utama (Bolivia)
• Xalé (Senegal)
• Where the Wind Blows (Hong Kong)

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Erik Anderson

Erik Anderson is the founder/owner and Editor-in-Chief of AwardsWatch and has always loved all things Oscar, having watched the Academy Awards since he was in single digits; making lists, rankings and predictions throughout the show. This led him down the path to obsessing about awards. Much later, he found himself in film school and the film forums of GoldDerby, and then migrated over to the former Oscarwatch (now AwardsDaily), before breaking off to create AwardsWatch in 2013.

He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Critics Choice Association (CCA), San Francisco Bay Area Film Critics Circle (SFBAFCC) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.

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