The Oscar shortlists will arrive on December 21, giving us the 15 contenders in Documentary Feature and International Feature Film that will be eligible to compete for a nomination.
Animated Feature is rather slim this year, with what feels like a race between Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (which could finally get Netflix a win here) and Disney/Pixar’s Turning Red. A24’s Marcel the Shell with Shoes On will aim for a spot here, if it qualifies. There is seemingly no Soul or Encanto type of sweeper at this point, until there is. But it does feel like another Disney vs Netflix match-up year.
Documentary Feature will be an interesting watch as the branch’s previous disdain for archival footage films has finally begun to crack, as is evidence from Summer of Soul‘s win last year. I’m still hesitant to go in for Sara Dosa’s luxurious lava romance Fire of Love, despite being such a big critical hit. It led the Critics Choice Documentary Awards nominations, who themselves finally broke their own curse having their winner repeat at the Oscars, again with Summer of Soul. Laura Poitras’s All the Beauty and the Bloodshed was conspicuously missing from that lineup, but it feels like a major contender.
International Feature Film might be the most competitive it’s been in years, with an eventual top 5 that is going to be as cutthroat as any category. I expect all the top contenders to hit the shortlist (Decision to Leave, Bardo, Close, Saint Omer, All Quiet on the Western Front, Holy Spider, etc) but what gets a nomination could find us with a Lunana-esque surprise. In a season packed with Cannes winners and several international contenders also vying for nominations elsewhere, it will be illuminating to see where the shortlist kicks things off.
Here are my 2023 Oscar predictions in Animated Feature, Documentary Feature and International Feature Film.
1. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (Netflix)
2. Turning Red (Walt Disney/Pixar)
3. Strange World (Walt Disney)
4. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (A24)
5. Wendell & Wild (Netflix)
6. Inu-oh (GKIDS)
7. Minions: The Rise of Gru (Universal Pictures)
8. Lightyear (Walt Disney/Pixar)
9. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish (Dreamworks)
10. The Sea Beast (Netflix)
Other contenders (alphabetical)
Ainbo: Spirit of the Amazon (Shout! Studios)
The Bad Guys (Universal Pictures)
The Bob’s Burgers Movie (20th Century Studios)
DC League of Super Pets (Warner Bros)
The Deer King (GKIDS)
Drifting Home (Netflix)
Luck (Apple Original Films)
My Father’s Dragon (Netflix)
Paws of Fury: The Legend of Hank (Paramount Pictures)
Pinocchio (Walt Disney)
Scrooge: A Christmas Carol (Netflix)
Unicorn Wars (GKIDS)
1. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (NEON)
2. All That Breathes (HBO Documentary Films)
3. The Territory (National Geographic)
4. Navalny (HBO Documentary Films/CNN/Warner Bros)
5. Descendent (Netflix)
6. Retrograde (National Geographic)
7. Good Night Oppy (Amazon Studios)
8. The Janes (HBO Documentary Films)
9. Aftershock (Hulu)
10. Moonage Dream (HBO Documentary Films/NEON)
11. Fire of Love (National Geographic/NEON)
12. Beba (NEON)
13. Chernobyl: The Lost Tapes (HBO Documentary Films)
14. Mija (Disney Original Documentary)
15. Louis Armstrong’s Black & Blues (Apple Original Films)
Other contenders (alphabetical)
The Automat (A Slice of Pie Productions)
Bad Axe (IFC Films)
The Beatles: Get Back (Disney Original Documentary)
Cow (IFC Films)
The Exiles (TBD)
Freedom on Fire: Ukraine’s Fight for Freedom (TBD)
Gabby Giffords Won’t Back Down (Briarcliff Entertainment)
Hallelujah: Leonard Cohen, A Journey, A Song (Sony Pictures Classics)
A House Made of Splinters (TBD)
I Didn’t See You There (TBD)
If These Walls Could Sing (Disney Original Documentary)
Is That Black Enough For You? (Netflix)
Last Flight Home (MTV Documentary Films)
Lucy and Desi (Amazon Studios)
The Return of Tanya Tucker – Featuring Brandi Carlile (Sony Pictures Classics)
Riotsville, U.S.A. (Magnolia Pictures)
Sidney (Apple Original Films)
Salvatore: Shoemaker of Dreams (Sony Pictures Classics)
“Sr.” (Netflix)
Three Minutes: A Lengthening (NEON)
INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
1. Decision to Leave (South Korea)
2. Saint Omer (France)
3. Argentina, 1985 (Argentina)
4. Close (Belgium)
5. All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany)
6. Bardo, or False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths (Mexico)
7. Holy Spider (Denmark)
8. EO (Poland)
9. Alcarràs (Spain)
10. Klondike (Ukraine)
11. Corsage (Austria)
12. The Happiest Man in the World (North Macedonia)
13. Utama (Bolivia)
14. Where the Wind Blows (Hong Kong)
15. Return to Seoul (Cambodia)
Other contenders (alphabetical)
A Ballad (Bosnia-Herzegovina)
Boy from Heaven (Sweden)
Butterfly on a Windowpane (Nepal)
Cinema Sabaya (Israel
Goddamned Asura (Taiwan)
Joyland (Pakistan)
Mars One (Brazil)
Narcosis (Netherlands)
Nostalgia (Italy)
A Piece of Sky (Switzerland)
Plan 75 (Japan)
The Quiet Girl (Ireland)
Xalé (Senegal)
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