2023 Oscar Predictions: BEST ACTRESS (June)

Erik Anderson June 29, 2022

Regina King could be set to return to the Oscars after her Academy Award-winning turn in 2018’s If Beale Street Could Talk, where she won Best Supporting Actress. This time, she’s aiming for lead as Shirley Chisholm, in Shirley, which chronicles Chisholm’s historic journey as the first Black woman in Congress, representing New York’s 12th congressional district of Bedford–Stuyvesant, and the first woman and first Black person (Chisholm was from Barbadian descent) to seek the Democratic nomination for President of the United States (in 1972). The film, which went into post-production in April, is written and directed by Oscar winner John Ridley (Adapted Screenplay, 12 Years a Slave) also stars André Holland, Terrence Howard, Lucas Hedges and Lance Reddick and is set for release by Netflix.

Our first real look at Ana de Armas as Marilyn Monroe in Andrew Dominick’s Blonde came mid-month with official stills and an enticing teaser trailer. The Netflix film, based on the divisive and daring blend of fact and fiction novelization of her life by Joyce Carol Oates, earned an NC-17 rating from the MPA. While that rating was heavily predicted to happen, the “some sexual content” descriptor from the org was shockingly…tame. Both for its brevity and based on the content of the book. It will be a true test to see if the stigma of that rating will have an overwhelming impact on the film and de Armas’s chances but on its side is that Netflix won’t have to post box office numbers that people can highlight as a failure point.

With Poor Things off the calendar and moved to next year, Emma Stone is off the list. Several other films are still in a state of flux as to their release, like Nyad, starring four-time Oscar nominee Annette Bening as legendary swimmer Diana Nyad and newly minted Oscar nominee Kirsten Dunst in Alex Garland’s new film, Civil War. We also, as we always do, have potential category placement questions with Lily Gladstone in Killers of the Flower Moon (although a supporting run seems like an easier one) and three-time Oscar nominee Greta Gerwig (Best Director and Original Screenplay for 2017’s Lady Bird, Best Adapted Screenplay for 2019’s Little Women) returning to acting in Noah Baumbach’s White Noise.

Here are my 2023 Oscar predictions in Best Actress for June 2022.

Green – moves up ↑ Red – moves down ↓ Blue – new entry ♦

1. Margot Robbie – Babylon (Paramount Pictures)
2. Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24)
3. Regina King – Shirley (Netflix)
4. Naomie Ackie – I Wanna Dance with Somebody (Columbia Pictures)
5. Olivia Colman – Empire of Light (Searchlight Pictures) – 2022 or 2023?

6. Cate Blanchett – TÁR (Focus Features)
7. Helen Mirren – Golda (Bleecker Street) ↑
8. Carey Mulligan – She Said (Universal Pictures) ↑
9. Ana De Armas – Blonde (Netflix) ↑
10. Viola Davis – The Woman King (Columbia Pictures) ↑
11. Danielle Deadwyler – Till (MGM/UAR) ↑
12. Jessica Chastain – The Good Nurse (Netflix) ↑
13. Anamaria Vartolomei – Happening (IFC Films) ♦
14. Michelle Williams – Showing Up (A24) ↓
15. Jennifer Lawrence – Red, White and Water (A24) ↑
16. Kirsten Dunst – Civil War (A24) – 2022 or 2023?
17. Lily Gladstone – Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films) ↓ – lead or supporting?
18. Tang Wei – Decision to Leave (MUBI) ↓
19. Annette Bening – Nyad (Netflix) – 2022 or 2023?
20. Greta Gerwig – White Noise (Netflix) – lead or supporting?

Other contenders (alphabetical):

Yalitza Aparicio – Presences (VIX)
Doona Bae – Broker (NEON)
Melissa Barrera – Carmen (Sony Pictures Classics)
Annette Bening – Jerry and Marge Go Large (Paramount Pictures)
Juliette Binoche – Paradise Highway (Lionsgate)
Gemma Chan – True Love (20^th Century Studios)
Olivia Colman – Joyride (Columbia Pictures)
Emma Corrin – Lady Chatterley’s Lover (Netflix)
Emma Corrin – My Policeman (Amazon Studios)
Manal Issa – The Swimmers (Netflix)
Nathalie Issa – The Swimmers (Netflix)
Judith Ivey – Women Talking (MGM/UAR)
Dakota Johnson – Cha Cha Real Smooth (Apple Original Films)
Angelina Jolie – Every Note Played (STX Entertainment)
Zoe Kazan – She Said (Universal Pictures) – lead or supporting?
Keira Knightley – Boston Strangler (Warner Bros)
Valerie Lemercier – Aline (Roadside Attractions)
Lesley Manville – Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (Focus Features)
Sheila McCarthy – Women Talking (MGM/UAR)
Florence Pugh – Don’t Worry Darling (Warner Bros)
Margot Robbie – Amsterdam (20^th Century Studios)
Saoirse Ronan – Foe (Amazon Studios)
Taylor Russell – Bones and All (MGM/UAR)
Ally Ryder Foster – Are You There, God? It’s Me, Margaret (Lionsgate)
Joanna Scanlan – After Love (Vertigo Releasing)
Léa Seydoux – One Fine Morning (Sony Pictures Classics)
Anya Taylor-Joy – The Menu (Searchlight Pictures)

Without distribution

Patricia Clarkson – Fair Fight – TBD
Marion Cotillard – Brother and Sister – TBD
Marion Cotillard – The Brutalist – TBD
Penélope Cruz – L’Immensita – TBD
Charlbi Dean – Triangle of Sadness – TBD
Virginie Efira – Revoir Paris – TBD
Anne Hathaway – Eileen – TBD
Sally Hawkins – The Lost King – TBD
Talia Ryder – Joika – TBD
Shailene Woodley – Misanthrope – TBD

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Erik Anderson

Erik Anderson is the founder/owner and Editor-in-Chief of AwardsWatch and has always loved all things Oscar, having watched the Academy Awards since he was in single digits; making lists, rankings and predictions throughout the show. This led him down the path to obsessing about awards. Much later, he found himself in film school and the film forums of GoldDerby, and then migrated over to the former Oscarwatch (now AwardsDaily), before breaking off to create AwardsWatch in 2013.

He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Hollywood Critics Association (HCA) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.