2023 Oscar Predictions: BEST DIRECTOR and BEST PICTURE (May)

How long is it before something that was previously unpredictable becomes so common that it goes from trend to guarantee? That’s what’s been happening in the ever-evolving race for Best Director and its connection to Best Picture and more.

In the era of five Best Picture nominees, we’d often have what we called ‘the lone director’ nomination; a director who would get nominated when their film was not nominated for Best Picture, like Billy Wilder for Some Like It Hot or Martin Scorsese for The Last Temptation of Christ. It happened twice to both Alfred Hitchcock (Psycho and Rear Window) and David Lynch (Blue Velvet and Mulholland Dr.). The phrase itself has always been a bit of a misnomer, implying the Best Director nomination is a film’s only nod and indeed in the case of Lynch, both times it was true. This period these ‘lone directors’ were a combination of respected veterans, auteurs and non-English language film helmers (or a combination of the three), like Ingmar Bergman, Akira Kurosawa and Federico Fellini. The directing branch, who votes separately in their category like all branches, often thinks outside the box, outside of the Best Picture norms.

That has held true until the era of the expanded Best Picture lineup that began in 2009. For the next five years, with anywhere from 8-10 Best Picture nominees, there was always a corresponding Best Director for it. Then, 2014’s Foxcatcher earned five Oscar nominations, including writing and two acting nods but also for Bennett Miller’s direction even though the film missed the 8-film lineup. As it was the first time since the expansion that had happened it was glaring, as there were, essentially, three more chances than they’re used to be. Then it happened again with Paweł Pawlikowski 2018’s Cold War but it felt different. Pawlikowski had won Best Director at Cannes and the film was nomination for (the then named) Foreign Language Film Oscar. To its unfortunate timing, he and the film were nominated alongside Alfonso Cuarón’s Roma in that category and in cinematography and directing, losing all three bids to Cuarón. Then two years later, the (now called) International Feature Film frontrunner Another Round, earned Thomas Vinterberg a spot in Best Director without BP. In between there was the breakthrough that was Parasite, the first non-English language film to win the Best Picture Oscar and taking its director, Bong Joon Ho, along with it. Then last season we saw Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s Drive My Car land in Best Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay and win IFF.

What does all of this mean? Does it mean anything? If we’re looking at the Cannes-to-Oscar pipeline, it does. Or at least it’s a good start.

This weekend’s Cannes Palme d’Or winner, the satire on excess Triangle of Sadness, is Ruben Östlund’s English-language debut and is someone who’s felt on the cusp of going from foreign auteur to being pulled into the U.S. awards gravity not unlike Yorgos Lanthimos and his Oscar breakthrough The Favourite. Is Triangle of Sadness getting 10 nominations like The Favourite did? No, definitely not. But with NEON backing him, his Parasite by way of Don’t Look Up, he should be taken seriously as a contender.

After the success of Parasite, Minari and Drive My Car, the Academy finally opening its doors to more consistent Asian representation in Best Director and Best Picture is definitely starting to look real and not simply one and done fix of a long-standing dismissal. Park Chan-wook’s Cannes Best Director win for Decision to Leave gives him a huge boost and even though his film has an unproven Oscar distributor, that shouldn’t be quite the hindrance we sometimes think it is after Janus Films got Drive My Car all the way to the finish line. Hirokazu Kore-eda’s Broker may not have secured one of the fest’s top film prizes but Song Kang-ho’s Best Actor win could be enough to keep the film in conversation throughout the season as NEON will undoubtedly push him hard. But, they also have the Palme winner. Decisions, decisions.

Here are my 2023 Oscar predictions in Best Director for May 2022.

1. Steven Spielberg – The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures)
2. Martin Scorsese – Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films)
3. Damien Chazelle – Babylon (Paramount Pictures)
4. Sarah Polley – Women Talking (MGM/UAR)
5. Alejandro G. Iñárritu – Bardo (Netflix)

6. The Daniels – Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24)
7. Park Chan-wook – Decision to Leave (MUBI)
8. Yorgos Lanthimos – Poor Things (Searchlight Pictures)
9. Darren Aronofsky – The Whale (A24)
10. James Cameron – Avatar: The Way of Water (20th Century Studios)

11. Florian Zeller – The Son (Sony Pictures Classics)
12. Sam Mendes – Empire of Light (Searchlight Pictures)
13. Ruben Östlund – Triangle of Sadness (NEON)
14. Todd Field – TÁR (Focus Features)
15. Ridley Scott – Napoleon (Apple Original Films)
16. Hirozaku Kore-eda – Broker (NEON)
17. Maria Schrader – She Said (Universal Pictures)
18. Martin McDonagh – The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures)
19. Ron Howard – Thirteen Lives (MGM/UAR)
20. Noah Baumbach – White Noise (Netflix)

Other contenders (alphabetical):

• Edward Berger – All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix)
• David O. Russell – Amsterdam (20^th Century Studios)
• James Gray – Armageddon Time (Focus Features)
• Andrew Dominick – Blonde (Netflix)
• Luca Guadagnino – Bones and All (MGM/UAR)
• Maggie Betts – The Burial (Amazon Studios)
• Benjamin Millepied – Carmen (Sony Pictures Classics)
• Stephen Williams – Chevalier (Searchlight Pictures)
• Alex Garland – Civil War (A24)
• Lukas Dhont – Close (A24)
• David Cronenberg – Crimes of the Future (NEON)
• Ari Aster – Disappointment Blvd. (A24)
• Olivia Wilde – Don’t Worry Darling (Warner Bros)
• Baz Luhrmann – Elvis (Warner Bros)
• Eva Longoria – Flamin’ Hot (Searchlight Pictures)
• Garth Davis – Foe (Amazon Studios)
• Guy Nattiv – Golda (Bleecker Street)
• Tobias Lindholm – The Good Nurse (Netflix)
• Peter Farrelly – The Greatest Beer Run Ever (Apple Original Films)
• Audrey Diwan – Happening (IFC Films)
• Kasi Lemmons – I Wanna Dance with Somebody (Columbia/TriStar)
• David Fincher – The Killer (Netflix)
• Laure de Clermont-Tonnerre – Lady Chatterley’s Lover (Netflix)
• Oliver Hermanus – Living (Sony Pictures Classics)
• Mark Mylod – The Menu (Searchlight Pictures)
• Dev Patel – Monkey Man (Netflix)
• Jimmy Chin & Elizabet Chai Vasarhelyi – Nyad (Netflix)
• Scott Cooper – The Pale Blue Eye (Netflix)
• Michael Grandage – My Policeman (Amazon Studios)
• Taika Waititi – Next Goal Wins (Searchlight Pictures)
• Rodrigo Garcia – Raymond & Ray (Apple Original Films)
• Lisa Neugerbauer – Red, White, Water (A24)
• George C. Wolfe – Rustin (Netflix)
• John Ridley – Shirley (Netflix)
• Kelly Reichardt – Showing Up (A24)
• Johan Renck – Spaceman of Bohemia (Netflix)
• Sally El-Hossaini – The Swimmers (Netflix)
• Michael Showalter – Spoiler Alert (Focus Features)
• Chinonye Chukwu – Till (MGM/UAR)
• George Miller – Three Thousand Years of Longing (MGM/UAR)
• Gareth Edwards – True Love (20^th Century Studios)
• Sebastian Lellio – The Wonder (Netflix) Jonathan Glazer – The Zone of Interest (A24)

Without distribution

• Paula Ortiz – Across the River and Into the Trees – TBD
• Wes Anderson – Asteroid City – TBD
• Arnaud Desplechin – Brother and Sister – TBD
• Joachim Back – Corner Officer – TBD
• Felix van Groeningen & Charlotte Vandermeersch – The Eight Mountains – TBD
• James Napier Robertson – Joika – TBD
• Stephen Frears – The Lost King – TBD
• Cedric Jimenez – November – TBD
• John Slattery – Maggie Moore(s) – TBD
• John Trengove – Manodrome – TBD
• Damian Szifron – Misanthrope – TBD
• Alice Winocour – Revoir Paris – TBD
• Rebecca Miller – She Came to Me – TBD

Here are my 2023 Oscar predictions for Best Picture for May 2022.

1. The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films)
3. Babylon (Paramount Pictures)
4. Bardo (Netflix)
5. Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24)
6. Avatar: The Way of Water – 20th Century Studios
7. Women Talking (MGM/UAR)
8. The Son (Sony Pictures Classics)
9. Poor Things (Searchlight Pictures)
10. Empire of Light (Searchlight Pictures)

11. TÁR (Focus Features)
12. Triangle of Sadness (NEON)
13. Broker (NEON)
14. The Whale (A24)
15. The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures)
16. Elvis (Warner Bros)
17. She Said (Universal Pictures)
18. Napoleon (Apple Original Films)
19. Decision to Leave (MUBI)
20. White Noise (Netflix)

Other contenders (alphabetical):

• All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix)
• Armageddon Time (Focus Features)
• Blonde (Netflix)
• Bones and All (MGM/UAR)
• The Burial (Amazon Studios)
• Carmen (Sony Pictures Classics)
• Cha Cha Real Smooth (Apple Original Films)
• Chevalier (Searchlight Pictures)
• Civil War (A24)
• Close (A24)
• Crimes of the Future (NEON)
• Amsterdam – 20^th Century Studios
• Disappointment Blvd. (A24)
• Don’t Worry Darling (Warner Bros)
• Flamin’ Hot (Searchlight Pictures)
• Foe (Amazon Studios)
• Golda (Bleecker Street)
• The Good Nurse (Netflix)
• The Greatest Beer Run Ever (Apple Original Films)
• Happening (IFC Films)
• I Wanna Dance with Somebody (Columbia/TriStar)
• The Killer (Netflix)
• Lady Chatterley’s Lover (Netflix)
• Living (Sony Pictures Classics)
• The Menu (Searchlight Pictures)
• Monkey Man (Netflix)
• My Policeman (Amazon Studios)
• Next Goal Wins (Searchlight Pictures)
• Nyad (Netflix)
• The Pale Blue Eye (Netflix)
• Raymond & Ray (Apple Original Films)
• Red, White and Water (A24)
• Rustin (Netflix)
• Shirley (Netflix)
• Showing Up (A24)
• Spaceman of Bohemia (Netflix)
• Spoiler Alert (Focus Features)
• The Swimmers (Netflix)
• Thirteen Lives (MGM/UAR)
• Three Thousand Years of Longing (MGM/UAR)
• Till (MGM/UAR)
• Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount Pictures)
• True Love – 20^th Century Studios
• The Wonder (Netflix)
• The Zone of Interest (A24)

Without distribution

• Across the River and Into the Trees – TBD
• Asteroid City – TBD
• Brother and Sister – TBD
• The Brutalist – TBD
• Corner Office – TBD
• Don Juan – TBD
• Joika – TBD
• The Lost King – TBD
• Maggie Moore(s) – TBD
• Manodrome – TBD
• Misanthrope – TBD
• November – TBD

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Erik Anderson

Erik Anderson is the founder/owner and Editor-in-Chief of AwardsWatch and has always loved all things Oscar, having watched the Academy Awards since he was in single digits; making lists, rankings and predictions throughout the show. This led him down the path to obsessing about awards. Much later, he found himself in film school and the film forums of GoldDerby, and then migrated over to the former Oscarwatch (now AwardsDaily), before breaking off to create AwardsWatch in 2013.

He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Hollywood Critics Association (HCA) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.

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