2023 Oscar Predictions: SUPPORTING ACTOR (June)

Erik Anderson June 28, 2022

Colin Farrell (above) and Joel Edgerton both start to climb after the world premiere of the trailer for Ron Howard’s Thirteen Lives, the story of the race against time to save a group of Thai boys and their soccer coach who are trapped in flooding underground caves. Their co-star and three-time Oscar nominee Viggo Mortensen could show up here but feels like he could be pushed in lead. The story was worldwide news and turned into a 2021 documentary called The Rescue by Oscar-winning filmmakers Jimmy Chin and Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi.

Previous Oscar nominees Willam Dafoe and Mark Ruffalo the first major casualties of the season as Searchlight Pictures has officially moved Poor Things, from Yorgos Lanthimos, off the 2022 calendar. Look for it to premiere at Cannes or Venice next year.

Another Searchlight film, Sam Mendes’ Empire of Light, is currently TBA for the studio but Mendes put 1917 into post-production at just about the same time as Empire entered it this year and he was able to get the multi-nominated and Oscar-winning film out by year’s end. That status boosts Brendan Gleeson in Martin McDonaugh’s The Banshees of Inisherin, yet another Searchlight film. That one will be released in October.

Here are my 2023 Oscar predictions in Supporting Actor for June 2022.

Green – moves up ↑ Red – moves down ↓ Blue – new entry ♦

1. Paul Dano – The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures)
2. Jesse Plemons – Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films)
3. Robert De Niro – Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films)
4. Brad Pitt – Babylon (Paramount Pictures)
5. Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24)

6. Ben Whishaw – Women Talking (MGM/UAR/) ↑
7. Seth Rogen – The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures) ↑
8. André Holland – Shirley (Netflix)
9. Brendan Gleeson – The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures) ↑
10. Ashton Sanders – I Wanna Dance with Somebody (Columbia)
11. Colin Farrell – Thirteen Lives (MGM/UAR) ↑
12. Don Cheadle – White Noise (Netflix) ↑
13. Colin Firth – Empire of Light (Searchlight Pictures) – 2022 or 2023?
14. Anthony Hopkins – Armageddon Time (Focus Features) ↓
15. Glynn Turman – Rustin (Netflix)
16. Tom Hanks – Elvis (Warner Bros) ↓
17. Zen McGrath – The Son (Sony Pictures Classics)
18. Russell Crowe – The Greatest Beer Run Ever (Apple Original Films)
19. Tommy Lee Jones – The Burial (Amazon Studios)
20. Joel Edgerton – Thirteen Lives (MGM/UAR) ↑

Other contenders (alphabetical):

Ben Aldridge – Spoiler Alert (Focus Features)
Alm Ameen – Rustin (Netflix)
Lior Ashkenazi – Golda (Bleecker Street)
John Boyega – The Woman King (Columbia)
Andre Braugher – She Said (Universal Pictures)
Adrien Brody – Blonde (Netflix) ↓
Daniel Brühl – All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix)
Bobby Cannavale – Blonde (Netflix) ↓
Timothée Chalamet – Bones and All (MGM/UAR)
Sharlto Copley – Monkey Man (Netflix)
David Dawson – My Policeman (Amazon Studios)
Robert De Niro – Amsterdam (20^th Century Studios)
Robert Duvall – The Pale Blue Eye (Netflix)
Ralph Fiennes – The Menu (Searchlight Pictures)
Woody Harrelson – Triangle of Sadness (NEON)
Ethan Hawke – Raymond & Ray (Apple Original Films)
Stephen McKinley Henderson – Civil War (A24) – 2022 or 2023?
Brian Tyree Henry – Red, White, Water (A24)
Rami Heuberger – Golda (Bleecker Street)
Ciarán Hinds – The Wonder (Netflix)
Bill Irwin – Rustin (Netflix)
Toby Jones – Empire of Light (Searchlight Pictures) – 2022 or 2023?
Sukollawat Kanarot – Thirteen Lives (MGM/UAR)
Barry Keoghan – The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures)
Nathan Lane – Disappointment Blvd. (A24) – 2022 or 2023?
John Leguizamo – The Menu (Searchlight Pictures)
Rami Malek – Amsterdam (20^th Century Studios)
Ewan McGregor – Raymond & Ray (Apple Original Films)
Harry Melling – The Pale Blue Eye (Netflix)
Denis Menochet – Disappointment Blvd. (A24) – 2022 or 2023?
Viggo Mortensen – Thirteen Lives (MGM/UAR) – lead or supporting?
Wagner Moura – Civil War (A24) 2022 or 2023?
David Oyelowo – See How They Run (Searchlight Pictures)
Aaron Pierre – Foe (Amazon Studios)
Chris Pine – Don’t Worry Darling (Warner Bros)
Matthias Schoenaerts – Amsterdam (20^th Century Studios)
Jeremy Strong – Armageddon Time (Focus Features)
Michael Stuhlbarg – Bones and All (MGM/UAR)
Harry Styles – Don’t Worry Darling (Warner Bros)
Ali Suliman – The Swimmers (Netflix)
Teeradon Supapunpiyo – Thirteen Lives (MGM/UAR)
Stanley Tucci – I Wanna Dance with Somebody (Columbia)
Micheal Ward – Empire of Light (Searchlight Pictures) – 2022 or 2023?
John David Washington – Amsterdam (20^th Century Studios)
Ken Watanabe – True Love (20^th Century Studios)
Nikita Yefremov – Tetris (Apple Original Films)

Without distribution

Vincenzo Amato – L’Immensita
Odin Lund Bidon – Tchaikovsky’s Wife
Alessandro Borghi – Le Otto Montagne
Matthew Broderick – She Came to Me
Adrien Brody – Manodrome
Jean Dujardin – November
Luca Marinelli – Le Otto Montagne
Ben Mendelsohn – Misanthrope
Nick Mohammad – Maggie Moore(s)
Sami Outalbali – November
Tahar Rahim – She Came to Me
Mark Rylance – The Brutalist
Sebastian Stan – The Brutalist
Ethan Suplee – Manodrome

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Erik Anderson

Erik Anderson is the founder/owner and Editor-in-Chief of AwardsWatch and has always loved all things Oscar, having watched the Academy Awards since he was in single digits; making lists, rankings and predictions throughout the show. This led him down the path to obsessing about awards. Much later, he found himself in film school and the film forums of GoldDerby, and then migrated over to the former Oscarwatch (now AwardsDaily), before breaking off to create AwardsWatch in 2013.

He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Hollywood Critics Association (HCA) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.