2023 Oscar Predictions: SUPPORTING ACTOR (May)

The return to acting narrative for Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once) could prove a powerful one this season, and deservedly so. Quan burst onto the scene nearly 40 years ago as a child actor with the one-two punch of 1984’s Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom (directed by Steven Spielberg) and 1985’s The Goonies (exec produced by Spielberg).  “Never in my wildest imagination did I think I would end up being an actor. But I fell in love with it. That movie changed my life and my entire family’s life,” Quan recently said in regards to the Raiders sequel. He waited for the next big thing to hit but instead, his phone mostly went silent. Not seeing the Asian representation he needed, or being given the opportunity to be that representation, Quay co-starred in a few TV shows and some films but largely pulled back from acting, opting for film school at the University of Southern California where he found success as a stunt coordinator and an assistant director (most notably on Wong Kar-Wai’s 2046). But his acting bug never went away and it was only the recent success of films like Crazy Rich Asians, Parasite and Minari that rekindled the possibility to live the dream he had given up so many decades before. As Waymond Wang in Everything Everywhere All at Once, Quan centers and grounds the film, giving Michelle Yeoh the star turn she deserves while not letting the focus stray too far from himself as well, a perfect supporting performer. Right now, his biggest advantage is also his biggest challenge; being first out of the gate and with such universal praise, should make him a lock and had this been a fall release he would be. But A24, and critics groups, will have to keep Quan in the conversation when the late in the season heavy hitters start landing so he doesn’t get lost in the multi-awardsverse.

After earning his first-ever Oscar nomination last season (for The Power of the Dog, in this category), Jesse Plemons is one of the most likely to return this year with Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon from Apple Original Films. He’ll face stiff internal competition from two-time Academy Award-winning legend Robert De Niro but with recent years giving us double supporting actor nominations from the same film with such consistency now, it might be safe to just pencil them both in.

Speaking of Spielberg, the powerhouse director will be coming off his most recent Best Picture nominee (West Side Story) and directing nod with what could be one of his most baity films to date; a semi-autobiographical look at his own childhood in The Fabelmans. Like Killers of the Flower Moon, we could be toying with another double-nomination scenario, this time between the never-nominated pair of Paul Dano and Seth Rogen. Dano plays the stand-in version of Spielberg’s father, Arnold, while Rogen plays the director’s favorite uncle. With a history of stellar performances in everything from Prisoners, There Will Be Blood and Love & Mercy yet no major awards consideration to date (plus The Batman earlier this year), this could finally be Paul Dano’s year.

Here are my 2023 Oscar predictions in Supporting Actor for May 2022.

1. Paul Dano – The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures)
2. Jesse Plemons – Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films)
3. Robert De Niro – Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films)
4. Brad Pitt – Babylon (Paramount Pictures)
5. Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24)

6. Willem Dafoe – Poor Things (Searchlight Pictures)
7. Ben Whishaw – Women Talking (MGM/UAR/Orion)
8. André Holland – Shirley (Netflix)
9. Anthony Hopkins – Armageddon Time (Focus Features)
10. Ashton Sanders – I Wanna Dance with Somebody (Columbia)
11. Seth Rogen – The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures)
12. Tom Hanks – Elvis (Warner Bros)
13. Colin Firth – Empire of Light (Searchlight Pictures)
14. Brendan Gleeson – The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures)
15. Glynn Turman – Rustin (Netflix)
16. Don Cheadle – White Noise (Netflix)
17. Zen McGrath – The Son (Sony Pictures Classics)
18. Russell Crowe – The Greatest Beer Run Ever (Apple Original Films)
19. Adrien Brody – Blonde (Netflix)
20. Bobby Cannavale – Blonde (Netflix)

Other contenders (alphabetical):

• Ben Aldridge – Spoiler Alert (Focus Features)
• Alm Ameen – Rustin (Netflix)
• Lior Ashkenazi – Golda (Bleecker Street)
• John Boyega – The Woman King (Columbia)
• Andre Braugher – She Said (Universal Pictures)
• Daniel Brühl – All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix)
• Timothée Chalamet – Bones and All (MGM/UAR)
• Sharlto Copley – Monkey Man (Netflix)
• David Dawson – My Policeman (Amazon Studios)
• Robert De Niro – Amsterdam (20^th Century Studios)
• Robert Duvall – The Pale Blue Eye (Netflix)
• Joel Edgerton – Thirteen Lives (MGM/UAR)
• Colin Farrell – Thirteen Lives (MGM/UAR)
• Ralph Fiennes – The Menu (Searchlight Pictures)
• Ethan Hawke – Raymond & Ray (Apple Original Films)
• Stephen McKinley Henderson – Civil War (A24)
• Brian Tyree Henry – Red, White, Water (A24)
• Rami Heuberger – Golda (Bleecker Street)
• Ciarán Hinds – The Wonder (Netflix)
• Bill Irwin – Rustin (Netflix)
• Toby Jones – Empire of Light (Searchlight Pictures)
• Tommy Lee Jones – The Burial (Amazon Studios)
• Kaimana – Next Goal Wins (Searchlight Pictures)
• Sukollawat Kanarot – Thirteen Lives (MGM/UAR)
• Barry Keoghan – The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures)
• Nathan Lane – Disappointment Blvd. (A24)
• John Leguizamo – The Menu (Searchlight Pictures)
• David Lynch – The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures)
• Rami Malek – Amsterdam (20^th Century Studios)
• Ewan McGregor – Raymond & Ray (Apple Original Films)
• Harry Melling – The Pale Blue Eye (Netflix)
• Denis Menochet – Disappointment Blvd. (A24)
• Viggo Mortensen – Thirteen Lives (MGM/UAR)
• Wagner Moura – Civil War (A24)
• David Oyelowo – See How They Run (Searchlight Pictures)
• Aaron Pierre – Foe (Amazon Studios)
• Chris Pine – Don’t Worry Darling (Warner Bros)
• Mark Ruffalo – Poor Things (Searchlight Pictures)
• Matthias Schoenaerts – Amsterdam (20^th Century Studios)
• Jeremy Strong – Armageddon Time (Focus Features)
• Michael Stuhlbarg – Bones and All (MGM/UAR)
• Harry Styles – Don’t Worry Darling (Warner Bros)
• Ali Suliman – The Swimmers (Netflix)
• Teeradon Supapunpiyo – Thirteen Lives (MGM/UAR)
• Stanley Tucci – I Wanna Dance with Somebody (Columbia)
• Micheal Ward – Empire of Light (Searchlight Pictures)
• John David Washington – Amsterdam (20^th Century Studios)
• Ken Watanabe – True Love (20^th Century Studios)
• Nikita Yefremov – Tetris (Apple Original Films)

Without distribution

• Vincenzo Amato – L’Immensita
• Odin Lund Bidon – Tchaikovsky’s Wife
• Alessandro Borghi – Le Otto Montagne
• Matthew Broderick – She Came to Me
• Adrien Brody – Manodrome
• Jean Dujardin – November
• Woody Harrelson – Triangle of Sadnes
• Luca Marinelli – Le Otto Montagne
• Ben Mendelsohn – Misanthrope
• Nick Mohammad – Maggie Moore(s)
• Sami Outalbali – November
• Tahar Rahim – She Came to Me
• Mark Rylance – The Brutalist
• Sebastian Stan – The Brutalist
• Ethan Suplee – Manodrome

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Erik Anderson

Erik Anderson is the founder/owner and Editor-in-Chief of AwardsWatch and has always loved all things Oscar, having watched the Academy Awards since he was in single digits; making lists, rankings and predictions throughout the show. This led him down the path to obsessing about awards. Much later, he found himself in film school and the film forums of GoldDerby, and then migrated over to the former Oscarwatch (now AwardsDaily), before breaking off to create AwardsWatch in 2013.

He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Hollywood Critics Association (HCA) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.

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