2023 Oscar Predictions: SUPPORTING ACTOR (October)

The Gotham Awards nominations this week gave us our first look at who some of our potential frontrunners are, have been or could be in the supporting actor race. While the Gothams aren’t the biggest precursor (they are a critics’ group, after all, and nominations are decided on by just five people per category), this is where Troy Kotsur officially began his run last year on the way to his historic Oscar win for CODA.

Of the male supporting performances nominated at the Gothams (they utilize non-gender specific lead and supporting acting categories) we have Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once) and Ben Whishaw (Women Talking), who have both been in my top 5 for months. Given a leg up this week were Raúl Castillo in The Inspection, Brian Tyree Henry in Causeway and previous Oscar winner Mark Rylance in Bones and All.

The big question in this category is if either The Fabelmans or The Banshees of Inisherin can get two actors nominated here. Both major contenders in Best Picture and elsewhere, we could even see both pairs go all the way.

Here are my 2023 Oscar predictions in Supporting Actor for October.

Green – moves up ↑ Red – moves down ↓ Blue – new entry ♦

1. Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24)
2. Ben Whishaw – Women Talking (MGM/UAR)
3. Brendan Gleeson – The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures)
4. Paul Dano – The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures) ↑
5. Barry Keoghan – The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures) ↑

6. Judd Hirsch – The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures) ↓
7. Woody Harrelson – Triangle of Sadness (NEON) ↑
8. Eddie Redmayne – The Good Nurse (Netflix) ↓
9. Brad Pitt – Babylon (Paramount Pictures) ↓
10. Anthony Hopkins – Armageddon Time (Focus Features)
11. Brian Tyree Henry – Causeway (Apple Original Films) ↑
12. Tom Hanks – Elvis (Warner Bros)
13. Mark Rylance – Bones and All (MGM/UAR) ↑
14. John Boyega – The Woman King (Columbia) ↓
15. Don Cheadle – White Noise (Netflix) ↑
16. Jeremy Strong – Armageddon Time (Focus Features) ↑
17. Raúl Castillo – The Inspection (A24) ♦
18. Stanley Tucci – I Wanna Dance with Somebody (Columbia Pictures) ↑
19. Ashton Sanders – I Wanna Dance with Somebody (Columbia Pictures)
20. Daniel Brühl – All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix)

Other contenders (alphabetical)

• Andre Braugher – She Said (Universal Pictures)
• Zlatko Burić – Triangle of Sadness (NEON) ♦
• Colin Firth – Empire of Light (Searchlight Pictures) ↓
• Ben Foster – Emancipation (Apple Original Films) ♦
• Anthony Hopkins – The Son (Sony Pictures Classics)
• Ciarán Hinds – The Wonder (Netflix)
• Toby Jones – Empire of Light (Searchlight Pictures)
• Zen McGrath – The Son (Sony Pictures Classics) ↓
• Seth Rogen – The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures) ↓