2024 Emmys: Can Robert Downey, Jr. (‘The Sympathizer’) Triumph as his Show’s Lone Nomination?

It’s been a remarkable past year for Robert Downey, Jr. Not only did he score rave reviews, the Oscar and a plethora of other Best Supporting Actor trophies for Oppenheimer – he quickly followed that up with stellar notices for work on the small screen, on HBO’s The Sympathizer.

Based on Viet Thanh Nguyen’s 2015 Pulitzer Prize-winning novel, The Sympathizer finds Downey, Jr. in not one, not two but a total of four different roles, including a CIA agent, professor, congressman and filmmaker. The flashy nature of the performance, coupled with afterglow from his earlier awards season run, made Downey, Jr. an Emmy front-runner right out of the starting gates.

Then, nominations were announced and, to the surprise of many, The Sympathizer vastly underperformed. Yes, Downey, Jr. scored a widely expected bid in Limited Series Supporting Actor. Less expected was that he would emerge the lone nomination for his program. Have his chances of winning suddenly been dampened, given the apparent lack of enthusiasm among voters for The Sympathizer? Let’s take a look at both the category’s history and this specific field of contenders.

In examining past Limited Series Supporting Actor Emmy winners, there is both good and bad news for Downey, Jr. The good news? There is precedent for actors taking this prize as the lone nomination from their program. In total, five have done so – Art Carney (Terrible Joe Moran), Dabney Coleman (Sworn to Silence), Derek Jacobi (The Tenth Man), James Earl Jones (Heat Wave) and Beau Bridges (The Second Civil War). The bad news? No one has achieved this feat in nearly three decades, since Bridges in 1997.

Downey, Jr. faces six competitors, all hailing from programs that have been embraced in other categories. There’s Jonathan Bailey (Fellow Travelers, a three-time nominee), Tom Goodman-Hill (Baby Reindeer, an 11-time nominee), John Hawkes (True Detective: Night Country, a 19-time nominee), Lamorne Morris (Fargo, a 15-time nominee), Lewis Pullman (Lessons in Chemistry, a 10-time nominee) and the late Treat Williams (Feud: Capote vs. The Swans, a 10-time nominee). If voters approach this category based on their feelings for the series themselves, Downey, Jr. may be a long shot.

While this field lacks a clear front-runner, if there’s a slight category favorite, it’s likely Bailey, who earned raves for his turn, earlier won the Limited Series Supporting Actor prize at the Critics’ Choice Awards (over Pullman) and is on the verge of becoming a full-fledged movie star with Wicked and the next Jurassic World installment. What perhaps keeps Bailey from being the commanding favorite is the somewhat lukewarm reception for Fellow Travelers itself, which did score in Limited Series Actor (for Matt Bomer) and Limited Series Writing but notably missed in Best Limited Series itself and surfaced nowhere on the Creative Arts side. No one since Bridges has prevailed in this category for a series with such little support.

Among the other contenders, Baby Reindeer appears poised for a strong showing on Emmy night. If voters are even more head over heels than expected, it’s conceivable Goodman-Hill could ride the show’s wave to victory. Likewise, extraordinary showings for True Detective: Night Country, Fargo or Lessons in Chemistry could put their nominees in serious contention. Williams, who last year died in a tragic motorcycle crash, could be something of a dark horse here, given he worked with countless folks in the industry over his five-decade career. It should, however, be noted that six actors (Jack Hawkins, Walter McGinn, Jack Albertson, Richard Burton, J.T. Walsh and, just last year, Ray Liotta) have been posthumously nominated in this category and none prevailed.

In the end, this is an exciting and unpredictable race. Despite their programs, compared to the competition, being less embraced overall, Bailey still rings of a soft front-runner, with Downey, Jr. perhaps not far behind. The rest of the field, however, is not to be underestimated. All it could take is a Baby Reindeer sweep or overperformance among the other programs for this category to be upended.

Robert Downey, Jr. is Emmy-nominated in the category of Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie for The Sympathizer.