2024 Oscar Predictions: ANIMATED FEATURE, DOCUMENTARY FEATURE and INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM (December)

We have the official lists of eligible films for Animated, Documentary and International Feature Films, the latter of the two which are set to be reduced to 15-film shortlists on December 21.

For animated films we have Critics Choice and Golden Globe nominations to help guide the possible choices. Four films earned both: The Boy and the Heron, Elemental, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse and Wish.

Nimona and Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem both made CCA while The Super Mario Bros. Movie and Suzume were nominated by just the Globes. Both orgs have six spots versus five at the Oscars and there’s no shortlist in this category. So we’ll always be looking at a combination of CCA and GG as well as standout individual critics’ wins. Those aren’t much help this season as only Heron and Spider-Man have earned those. That’s where can look outside the trappings of precursors and possibly find a place for something like Robot Dreams.

Documentary features have several precursors: Critics Choice, Cinema Eye Honors, the International Documentary Association and the Producers Guild. We have nominations in place at all four and two winners already; Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie from CCA and Bobi Wine: The People’s President from IDA. No single film managed nods at all four (nearly impossible with how varied these groups are) but 20 Days at Mariupol got in three: CCA, CEH and PGA. Speaking of Still, will the CCA curse come into play once again? After a brief respite when Summer of Soul won a few years ago, we went right back to the doc branch snubbing the CCA winner where last year’s Good Night Oppy couldn’t even make the shortlist.

International Feature Film is feeling even more Euro-centric than usual this year and the voters at this stage will have to make concerted efforts to see films outside of Europe to create their shortlist. Is it also just a banner year for European films and directors? Definitely, but when isn’t it? Films from Africa, South America and much of Asia that isn’t Japan or Korea, have to fight for a place at the table every year. Even though we’ll get inspired nominations like Bhutan’s A Yak in the Classroom, they’re few and far between. I think there’s room for films like Bhutan’s The Monk and the Gun, Senegal’s Banel & Adama or Morocco’s The Mother of All Lies (which should show up on the doc shortlist) but voting history isn’t as favorable as it should be.

ANIMATED FEATURE

33 features are eligible for consideration in the Animated Feature Film category for the 96th Academy Awards.  Some of the films have not yet had their required qualifying release and must fulfill that requirement and comply with all the category’s other qualifying rules to advance in the voting process. This is up from 27 entries last year where Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio won the Oscar.

To determine the five nominees, members of the Short Films and Feature Animation Branch are automatically eligible to vote in the category.  Academy members outside of the Short Films and Feature Animation Branch are invited to opt in to participate and must meet a minimum viewing requirement to be eligible to vote in the category.  Films submitted in the Animated Feature Film category may also qualify for Academy Awards in other categories, including Best Picture.

Oscar nominations will be announced on January 23, 2024 and the 96th Academy Awards will be held on March 10.

Here are my 2024 Oscar predictions in Animated Feature for October 2023.

1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Sony Pictures) – CCA, GG
2. The Boy and the Heron (GKIDS) – CCA, GG
3. Elemental (Pixar) – CCA, GG
4. Nimona (Netflix) – CCA
5. Robot Dreams (NEON)
6. Wish (Walt Disney) – CCA, GG
7. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem (Paramount Pictures) – CCA
8. Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget (Netflix)
9. Suzume (Crunchyroll) – GG
10. The Super Mario Bros. Movie (Universal Pictures) – GG

Next up: Ernest & Celestine: A Trip to Gibbertia (GKIDS), The Inventor (Blue Fox), Leo (Netflix), Migration (Universal Pictures), The Peasants (Sony Pictures Classics), They Shot the Piano Player (Sony Pictures Classics), Trolls Band Together (DreamWorks)

Other contenders: The Amazing Maurice, Blue Giant, Chang’an, Deep Sea, The First Slam Dunk, Lonely Castle in the Mirror, The Magicians’s Elephant, The Monkey King (Netflix), My Love Affair with Marriage, PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie (Paramount Pictures), Perlimps, Titina, Unicorn Wars, Warrior King

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

167 features are eligible for consideration in the Documentary Feature Film category for the 96th Academy Awards.  Some of the films have not yet had their required qualifying release and must fulfill that requirement and comply with all the category’s other qualifying rules to advance in the voting process. This is up from 144 last year which saw Navalny as the Oscar winner.

Documentary features that have won a qualifying film festival award or have been submitted in the International Feature Film category as their country’s official selection are also eligible in the category.  Films submitted in the Documentary Feature Film category may also qualify for Academy Awards in other categories, including Best Picture. Members of the Documentary Branch vote to determine the shortlist and the nominees.  

The shortlist of 15 films will be announced on Thursday, December 21, 2023. Oscar nominations will be announced on January 23, 2024 and the 96th Academy Awards will be held on March 10.

Here are my 2024 Oscar predictions for the 15-film shortlist in Documentary Feature for December 2023.

1. American Symphony (Netflix) – CCA, PGA
2. 20 Days in Mariupol (PBS) – CCA, CEH, PGA
3. Four Daughters (Kino Lorber) – CEH
4. Beyond Utopia (Roadside Attractions) – CCA, PGA
5. The Mission (National Geographic) – CCA
6. The Mother of All Lies (Insight Films) – IDA, PGA
7. 32 Sounds (Abramorama) – CEH
8. Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie (Apple Original Films) – CCA, CEH
9. Bobi Wine: The People’s President (National Geographic) – IDA
10. The Eternal Memory (MTV Documentary Films) – CCA, CEH
11. The Disappearance of Shere Hite (IFC Films/Sapan Studios) – PGA
12. Kokomo City (Magnolia Pictures) – CCA, CEH
13. Menus-Plaisirs Les Troisgros (Zipporah Films)
14. Orlando, My Political Documentary (Janus Films/Sideshow)
15. Smoke Sauna Sisterhood (Greenwich Entertainment) – PGA

Next up:

• Anselm (Janus Films/Sideshow)
• Apolonia, Apolonia (CAT & Docs) – IDA
• The Deepest Breath (Netflix) – CCA
• Going to Mars: The Nikki Giovanni Project (HBO Documentary Films) – CEH, IDA
• Little Richard: I Am Everything (Magnolia Pictures)
• The Pigeon Tunnel (Apple Original Films)
• Silver Dollar Road (Amazon Studios)
• Squaring the Circle (The Story of Hipgnosis) (Utopia) – PGA
• Stamped from the Beginning (Netflix) – CCA
• They Shot the Piano Player (Sony Pictures Classics)

Other contenders: Against the Tide (Snooker Films) – IDA; Anhell69 (Monogram Film) – IDA; Every Body (Focus Features); Joan Baez I Am a Noise (Magnolia Pictures), The Lady Bird Diaries (Hulu); Occupied City (A24), Songs of Earth (Strand Releasing); While We Watched (BritDoc Films) – IDA

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

88 countries or regions have submitted films that are eligible for consideration in the International Feature Film category for the 96th Academy Awards. This is down from 92 last year, where All Quiet on the Western Front won the Oscar for Germany.

An international feature film is defined as a feature-length motion picture (more than 40 minutes) produced outside the United States with a predominantly (more than 50%) non-English dialogue track. Namibia is a first-time entrant.

Academy members from all branches are invited to opt in to participate in the preliminary round of voting and must meet a minimum viewing requirement to be eligible to vote in the category.  

The shortlist of 15 films will be announced on Thursday, December 21, 2023. Oscar nominations will be announced on January 23, 2024 and the 96th Academy Awards will be held on March 10.

Here are my 2024 Oscar shortlist predictions in International Feature Film for October 2023.

1. The Zone of Interest (UK) – CCA, GG
2. The Teachers’ Lounge (Germany)
3. The Taste of Things (France) – CCA
4. Society of the Snow (Spain) – CCA, GG
5. Fallen Leaves (Finland) – GG
6. Perfect Days (Japan) – CCA
7. The Promised Land (Denmark)
8. Tótem (Mexico)
9. 20 Days in Mariupol (Ukraine)
10. The Peasants (Poland)
11. Shayda (Australia)
12. Housekeeping for Beginners (North Macedonia)
13. Io Capitano (Italy) – GG
14. The Monk and the Gun (Bhutan)
15. Banel & Adama (Senegal)

Next up: Do Not Expect Much From the End of the World (Romania), Godland (Iceland), The Mother of All Lies (Morocco), The Settlers (Chile), Seven Blessings (Israel)

Other contenders: About Dry Grasses (Turkey), Amerikatsi (Armenia), Bye Bye Tiberias (Palestine), Four Daughters (Tunisia), The Night Guardian (Iran), Pictures of Ghosts (Brazil), Rojek (Canada), Smoke Sauna Sisterhood (Estonia)

See full lists of eligible films below.

ANIMATED FEATURE

“The Amazing Maurice”
“Blue Giant”
“The Boy and the Heron”
“Chang’an”
“Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget”
“Deep Sea”
“Elemental”
“Ernest & Celestine: A Trip to Gibberitia”
“The First Slam Dunk”
“The Inventor”
“Leo”
“Lonely Castle in the Mirror”
“The Magician’s Elephant”
“Migration”
“Miraculous: Ladybug & Cat Noir, The Movie”
“The Monkey King”
“My Love Affair with Marriage”
“Nimona”
“Paw Patrol: The Mighty Movie”
“The Peasants”
“Perlimps”
“Robot Dreams”
“Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken”
“Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse”
“The Super Mario Bros. Movie”
“Suzume”
“Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem”
“They Shot the Piano Player”
“Titina”
“Trolls Band Together”
“Unicorn Wars”
“Warrior King”
“Wish”

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

“AKA Mr. Chow”
“After Sherman”
“Against the Tide”
“Alexander”
“American Symphony”
“American: An Odyssey to 1947”
“Americonned”
“And Miles to Go before I Sleep”
“Anhell69”
“Anonymous Sister”
“Another Body”
“Anselm”
“Apache Blues: Welcome Home”
“Apolonia, Apolonia”
“Bad Press”
“Batata”
“Bella”
“Bella!”
“Beyond Utopia”
“Bobi Wine: The People’s President”
“Bye Bye Tiberias”
“Canary”
“Carlos”
“Carterland”
“Close to Vermeer”
“Common Ground”
“A Compassionate Spy”
“Cup of Salvation”
“De Humani Corporis Fabrica”
“Deep Rising”
“The Deepest Breath”
“Deserters”
“Desperate Souls, Dark City and the Legend of Midnight Cowboy”
“The Disappearance of Shere Hite”
“Dosed: The Trip of a Lifetime”
“Downwind”
“Eat Bitter”
“The Echo”
“El Juicio”
“Elis & Tom – It Had to Be You”
“The Eternal Memory”
“Every Body”
“Fantastic Machine”
“Finding Her Beat”
“Fioretta”
“For the Animals”
“Four Daughters”
“Full Circle”
“Going to Mars: The Nikki Giovanni Project”
“Grandpa Was an Emperor”
“Have You Got It Yet? The Story of Syd Barrett and Pink Floyd”
“Here. Is. Better.”
“High & Low – John Galliano”
“The Holly”
“Holy Frit”
“I Got a Monster”
“If You Let Me Go”
“Imagining the Indian”
“Immediate Family”
“In the Company of Rose”
“In the Rearview”
“In the Shadow of Beirut”
“In Viaggio: The Travels of Pope Francis”
“Incompatible with Life”
“Into the Spotlight”
“The Invention of the Other”
“Invisible Beauty”
“The Issue with Tissue – A Boreal Love Story”
“It Ain’t Over”
“Joan Baez I Am a Noise”
“Joonam”
“King Coal”
“Knights of Santiago”
“Kokomo City”
“The Lady Bird Diaries”
“Lakota Nation vs. United States”
“Land of My Dreams”
“The Last Rider”
“The League”
“Lift”
“Little Richard: I Am Everything”
“The Lost Weekend: A Love Story”
“The Melt Goes on Forever: The Art & Times of David Hammons”
“Menus-Plaisirs – Les Troisgros”
“The Mission”
“Mission Peace: The Staunch Moderates Documentary”
“Mr. Jimmy”
“The Mother of All Lies”
“Motherland”
“The Mountains”
“Mourning in Lod”
“Music Is My Life – Dr. Joseph Shabalala and Ladysmith Black Mambazo”
“My Name Is Happy”
“Nam June Paik: Moon Is the Oldest TV”
“1946: The Mistranslation That Shifted Culture”
“North Circular”
“Occupied City”
“Orlando, My Political Biography”
“Our Body”
“Pacific Mother”
“The Padilla Affair”
“The Painting”
“Pay or Die”
“Periodical”
“Photophobia”
“Pianoforte”
“Pictures of Ghosts”
“The Pigeon Tunnel”
“Plan C”
“Radical Wolfe”
“Razing Liberty Square”
“Reality Winner”
“Refuge”
“A Revolution on Canvas”
“Rewind & Play”
“A Rising Fury”
“Robert Irwin: A Desert of Pure Feeling”
“Rojek”
“Sam Now”
“Samuel and the Light”
“The Secret Cities of Mark Kistler”
“Shot in the Arm”
“Show Her the Money”
“Silver Dollar Road”
“Sly”
“The Smell of Money”
“Smoke Sauna Sisterhood”
“A Song Film by Kishi Bashi – ‘Omoiyari’”
“Songs of Earth”
“Sound of the Police”
“Splice Here: A Projected Odyssey”
“Stamped from the Beginning”
“State of the Unity”
“Stephen Curry: Underrated”
“Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie”
“A Still Small Voice”
“A Storm Foretold”
“Subject”
“Symphony of the Holocaust”
“Taylor Mac’s 24-Decade History of Popular Music”
“They Shot the Piano Player”
“32 Sounds”
“This Much We Know”
“Thy Neighbours”
“Tito, Margot and Me”
“To Kill a Tiger”
“Total Trust”
“20 Days in Mariupol”
“26.2 to Life”
“Twice Colonized”
“Umberto Eco: A Library of the World”
“Uncharitable”
“Unconditional”
“Under the Sky of Damascus”
“Unfinished Business”
“Unseen”
“Unzipped: An Autopsy of American Inequality”
“Victim/Suspect”
“We Dare to Dream”
“What the Hell Happened to Blood, Sweat & Tears?”
“While the Green Grass Grows”
“While We Watched”
“Who I Am Not”
“Wild Beauty: Mustang Spirit of the West”
“Yoshiki under the Sky”
“You Were My First Boyfriend”
“Your Fat Friend”

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

Albania, “Alexander”
Argentina, “The Delinquents”
Armenia, “Amerikatsi”
Australia, “Shayda”
Austria, “Vera”
Bangladesh, “No Ground beneath the Feet”
Belgium, “Omen”
Bhutan, “The Monk and the Gun”
Bolivia, “The Visitor”
Bosnia and Herzegovina, “Excursion”
Brazil, “Pictures of Ghosts”
Bulgaria, “Blaga’s Lessons”
Burkina Faso, “Sira”
Cameroon, “Half Heaven”
Canada, “Rojek”
Chile, “The Settlers”
China, “The Wandering Earth II”
Colombia, “Un Varón”
Costa Rica, “I Have Electric Dreams”
Croatia, “Traces”
Czech Republic, “Brothers”
Denmark, “The Promised Land”
Dominican Republic, “Cuarencena”
Egypt, “Voy! Voy! Voy!”
Estonia, “Smoke Sauna Sisterhood”
Finland, “Fallen Leaves”
France, “The Taste of Things”
Georgia, “Citizen Saint”
Germany, “The Teachers’ Lounge”
Greece, “Behind the Haystacks”
Hungary, “Four Souls of Coyote”
Iceland, “Godland”
India, “2018 – Everyone Is a Hero”
Indonesia, “Autobiography”
Iran, “The Night Guardian”
Iraq, “Hanging Gardens”
Ireland, “In the Shadow of Beirut”
Israel, “Seven Blessings”
Italy, “Io Capitano”
Japan, “Perfect Days”
Jordan, “Inshallah A Boy”
Kenya, “Mvera”
Latvia, “My Freedom”
Lithuania, “Slow”
Luxembourg, “The Last Ashes”
Malaysia, “Tiger Stripes”
Mexico, “Totem”
Moldova, “Thunders”
Mongolia, “City of Wind”
Montenegro, “Sirin”
Morocco, “The Mother of All Lies”
Namibia, “Under the Hanging Tree”
Nepal, “Halkara”
Netherlands, “Sweet Dreams”
Nigeria, “Mami Wata”
North Macedonia, “Housekeeping for Beginners”
Norway, “Songs of Earth”
Pakistan, “In Flames”
Palestine, “Bye Bye Tiberias”
Panama, “Tito, Margot and Me”
Paraguay, “The Last Runway 2, Comando Yaguarete”
Peru, “The Erection of Toribio Bardelli”
Philippines, “The Missing”
Poland, “The Peasants”
Portugal, “Bad Living”
Romania, “Do Not Expect Too Much from the End of the World”
Saudi Arabia, “Alhamour H.A.”
Senegal, “Banel & Adama”
Serbia, “The Duke and the Poet”
Singapore, “The Breaking Ice”
Slovakia, “Photophobia”
Slovenia, “Riders”
South Africa, “Music Is My Life – Dr. Joseph Shabalala and Ladysmith Black Mambazo”
South Korea, “Concrete Utopia”
Spain, “Society of the Snow”
Sudan, “Goodbye Julia”
Sweden, “Opponent”
Switzerland, “Thunder”
Taiwan, “Marry My Dead Body”
Thailand, “Not Friends”
Tunisia, “Four Daughters”
Turkey, “About Dry Grasses”
Ukraine, “20 Days in Mariupol”
United Kingdom, “The Zone of Interest”
Uruguay, “Family Album”
Venezuela, “The Shadow of the Sun”
Vietnam, “Glorious Ashes”
Yemen, “The Burdened”

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Erik Anderson

Erik Anderson is the founder/owner and Editor-in-Chief of AwardsWatch and has always loved all things Oscar, having watched the Academy Awards since he was in single digits; making lists, rankings and predictions throughout the show. This led him down the path to obsessing about awards. Much later, he found himself in film school and the film forums of GoldDerby, and then migrated over to the former Oscarwatch (now AwardsDaily), before breaking off to create AwardsWatch in 2013.

He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Hollywood Critics Association (HCA) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.

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