2024 Oscar Predictions: BEST DIRECTOR and BEST PICTURE (June)
As I expected in May, Justine Triet’s Anatomy of a Fall and Jonathan Glazer’s The Zone of Interest were the top Cannes winners last month, earning the Palme d’Or and the Grand Prize, respectively, putting them in strong early positions as top Oscar prospects for both NEON and A24. This was NEON’s 4th Palme-winning film in a row, an astonishing feat (one of which resulted in a Best Picture win, 2019’s Parasite), and A24 just took home its first Best Picture win this season (Everything Everywhere All At Once) since 2016’s Moonlight.
As we eke just past mid-June, there are not only already a handful of contenders that have been seen (whether it’s from Sundance, Berlin, SXSW or Cannes) but some that have already been released like Past Lives, Air and Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse. Last season’s Best Picture winner (EEAAO) was released in March, and before that CODA was a Sundance premiere with an August release. That’s all to say that I think we’ve really gotten past the ‘it’s too early to start predicting the Oscars’ when the landscape has already changed and the terra isn’t so firma anymore.
My Best Director and Best Picture top 10s aren’t very different than last month, and yes, it’s still crazy to have three films from Warner Bros and two from A24 all crowded together; they’re not all making it. But for now, and until we have the results of the Barbie–Oppenheimer wars, they’re all hanging in there.
Here are my 2024 Oscar Predictions in Best Director and Best Picture as of June 2023.
BEST DIRECTOR
- Martin Scorsese – Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
- Christopher Nolan – Oppenheimer (Universal Pictures)
- Jonathan Glazer – The Zone of Interest (A24)
- Bradley Cooper – Maestro (Netflix)
- Alexander Payne – The Holdovers (Focus Features)
- Denis Villeneuve – Dune Part Two (Warner Bros)
- Celine Song – Past Lives (A24)
- Blitz Bazawule – The Color Purple (Warner Bros)
- Greta Gerwig – Barbie (Warner Bros)
- Emerald Fennell – Saltburn (Amazon Studios)
Other top contenders: Ben Affleck – Air (Amazon Studios), Justine Triet – Anatomy of a Fall (NEON), Wes Anderson – Asteroid City (Focus Features), Luca Guadagnino – Challengers (MGM), Alice Rohrwacher – La Chimera (NEON), Hayao Miyazaki – How Do You Live? (GKIDS), Sean Durkin – The Iron Claw (A24), David Fincher – The Killer (Netflix), Ellen Kuras – Lee (TBD), Todd Haynes – May December (Netflix), Ridley Scott – Napoleon (Apple Original Films/Sony Pictures), Yorgos Lanthimos – Poor Things (Searchlight Pictures), Sofia Coppola – Priscilla (A24), Joaquim Dos Santos/Kemp Powers/Justin K. Thompson – Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Sony Pictures)
Other contenders or possible 2024 releases:
- The Actor (NEON)
- The Bikeriders (20th Century Studios)
- BlackBerry (IFC Films)
- Blitz (Apple Original Films)
- Bob Marley: One Love (Paramount Pictures)
- The Book of Clarence (Sony Pictures)
- The Boys in the Boat (Amazon Studios)
- The Burial (Amazon Studios)
- Cassandro (Amazon Studios)
- Civil War (A24)
- Drive-Away Dolls (Focus Features)
- Dumb Money (Sony Pictures)
- Ferrari (STX Entertainment)
- Fingernails (Apple Original Films)
- Firebrand (MGM)
- Flint Strong (MGM)
- Foe (Amazon Studios)
- Freud’s Last Session (Sony Pictures Classics)
- Leave the World Behind (Netflix)
- Long Day’s Journey Into Night (MGM)
- Marley (Paramount Pictures)
- Mothers Instinct (NEON)
- Next Goal Wins (Searchlight Pictures)
- Nyad (Netflix)
- The Persian Version (Sony Pictures Classics)
- The Piano Lesson (Netflix)
- Rustin (Netflix)
- Shirley (Netflix)
- Society of the Snow (Netflix)
- Spaceman (Netflix)
- Strangers (Searchlight Pictures)
- Theater Camp (Searchlight Pictures)
- A Thousand and One (Focus Features)
- Without Blood (Freemantle)
- Wonka (Warner Bros)
Without U.S. distribution: The Book of Solutions (TBD), Il Capitano (TBD), Alonso Ruizpalacios – La Cocina (TBD), Conclave (TBD), Gonzo Girl (TBD), Joika (TBD), Limonov: The Ballad of Eddie (TBD), Lost in the Night (TBD), Memory (TBD), The New Boy (TBD), One Life (TBD), The Outrun (TBD), The Pot au Feu (TBD), Wicked Little Letters (TBD)
BEST PICTURE
- Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
- The Color Purple (Warner Bros)
- Maestro (Netflix)
- Oppenheimer (Universal Pictures)
- The Zone of Interest (A24)
- The Holdovers (Focus Features)
- Dune Part Two (Warner Bros)
- Past Lives (A24)
- Barbie (Warner Bros)
- Saltburn (Amazon Studios)
Other top contenders: Air (Amazon Studios), Anatomy of a Fall (NEON), Asteroid City (Focus Features), Challengers (MGM), La Chimera (NEON), How Do You Live? (GKIDS), The Iron Claw (A24), The Killer (Netflix), Lee (TBD), May December (Netflix), Napoleon (Apple Original Films/Sony Pictures), Poor Things (Searchlight Pictures), Priscilla (A24), Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Sony Pictures)
Other contenders or possible 2024 releases:
- The Actor (NEON)
- The Bikeriders (20th Century Studios)
- BlackBerry (IFC Films)
- Blitz (Apple Original Films)
- Bob Marley: One Love (Paramount Pictures)
- The Book of Clarence (Sony Pictures)
- The Boys in the Boat (Amazon Studios)
- The Burial (Amazon Studios)
- Cassandro (Amazon Studios)
- Civil War (A24)
- Drive-Away Dolls (Focus Features)
- Dumb Money (Sony Pictures)
- Ferrari (STX Entertainment)
- Fingernails (Apple Original Films)
- Firebrand (MGM)
- Flint Strong (MGM)
- Foe (Amazon Studios)
- Freud’s Last Session (Sony Pictures Classics)
- Leave the World Behind (Netflix)
- Long Day’s Journey Into Night (MGM)
- Marley (Paramount Pictures)
- Mothers Instinct (NEON)
- Next Goal Wins (Searchlight Pictures)
- Nyad (Netflix)
- The Persian Version (Sony Pictures Classics)
- The Piano Lesson (Netflix)
- Rustin (Netflix)
- Shirley (Netflix)
- Society of the Snow (Netflix)
- Spaceman (Netflix)
- Strangers (Searchlight Pictures)
- Theater Camp (Searchlight Pictures)
- A Thousand and One (Focus Features)
- Without Blood (Freemantle)
- Wonka (Warner Bros)
Without U.S. distribution: The Book of Solutions (TBD), Il Capitano (TBD), Alonso Ruizpalacios – La Cocina (TBD), Conclave (TBD), Gonzo Girl (TBD), Joika (TBD), Limonov: The Ballad of Eddie (TBD), Lost in the Night (TBD), Memory (TBD), The New Boy (TBD), One Life (TBD), The Outrun (TBD), The Pot au Feu (TBD), Wicked Little Letters (TBD)
He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Hollywood Critics Association (HCA) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.
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