2024 Oscar Predictions: SUPPORTING ACTOR (August)

It’s RRR season. Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer), Ryan Gosling (Barbie) and Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon) stay put as my top three with the first two locking down blockbuster status and performance raves for their films.

Someone I’m keeping my eye on is Jeremy Allen White in the Von Erich brothers wrestling biopic The Iron Claw. Despite what looks like an odd choice to not send the Sean Durkin film to any fall festivals (yet, Telluride or NYFF could surprise), the move by the Emmys to January could prove to be fortuitous for the young star. It’s very likely that he’ll win a Golden Globe, Critics’ Choice and Emmy Award for his role in the FX series The Bear (albeit for two different seasons) all in the space of a week…which also overlaps with Oscar nomination voting. Should the film be well received and A24 focuses on him as a contender, he’s one to look out for here.

We’ll also have a double dose of Euphoria star Jacob Elordi as he finds himself as the object of Barry Keoghan’s obsession in Emerald Fennell’s Saltburn and as none other than Elvis Presley in Sofia Coppola’s Priscilla.

Oscar nominations will be announced on January 23, 2024 and the 96th Academy Awards will be held on March 10.

Here are my 2024 Oscar predictions in Supporting Actor for August 2023.

1. Robert Downey Jr. – Oppenheimer (Universal Pictures) (-)
2. Ryan Gosling – Barbie (Warner Bros) (-)
3. Robert De Niro – Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures) (-)
4. Charles Melton – May December (Netflix) (▲)
5. Willem Dafoe – Poor Things (Searchlight Pictures) (-)
6. John Magaro – Past Lives (A24) (-)
7. Colman Domingo – The Color Purple (Warner Bros) (▼)
8. Matt Damon – Oppenheimer (Universal Pictures) (-)
9. Jeremy Allen White – The Iron Claw (A24) (▲)
10. Richard E. Grant – Saltburn (Amazon Studios) (▲)

Next up: Ben Affleck – Air (Amazon Studios) (▲), Jacob Elordi – Priscilla (A24) (▲), Jacob Elordi – Saltburn (Amazon Studios) (▲), Glenn Howerton – BlackBerry (IFC Films) (▼), Tommy Lee Jones – The Burial (Amazon Studios) (▲), Holt McCallany – The Iron Claw (A24) (▲), Jesse Plemons – Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures) (▼), Mark Ruffalo – Poor Things (Searchlight Pictures) (▲) (▲), Dominic Sessa – The Holdovers (Focus Features) (NEW), Michael Shannon – The Bikeriders (20th Century Studios) (▲), Ramy Youssef – Poor Things (Searchlight Pictures) (▲)

Lead or Supporting Dilemma: Riz Ahmed – Fingernails (Apple Original Films), Austin Butler – The Bikeriders (20th Century Studios), Christopher Abbott – Poor Things (Searchlight Pictures), Jacob Elordi – Priscilla (A24), Tom Hardy – The Bikeriders (20th Century Studios), Mark Ruffalo – Poor Things (Searchlight Pictures), Teo Yoo – Past Lives (A24), Ramy Youssef – Poor Things (Searchlight Pictures)

Other contenders and/or possible 2024 releases:

• Christopher Abbott – Poor Things (Searchlight Pictures)
• Riz Ahmed – Fingernails (Apple Original Films)
• Jamie Bell – All of Us Strangers (Searchlight Pictures)
• Gael García Bernal – Holland, Michigan (Amazon Studios)
• Demián Bichir – Without Blood (Fremantle)
• Esteban Bigliardi – Society of the Snow (Netflix)
• Matt Bomer – Maestro (Netflix)
• Austin Butler – The Bikeriders (20th Century Studios)
• Raul Castillo – Cassandro (Amazon Studios)
• Benedict Cumberbatch – The Book of Clarence (Sony Pictures)
• Paul Dano – Spaceman (Netflix)
• Harris Dickinson – Blitz (Apple Original Films)
• Harris Dickinson – The Iron Claw (A24)
• Joel Edgerton – The Boys in the Boat (MGM)
• Jacob Elordi – Priscilla (A24)
• Ben Foster – Long Day’s Journey Into Night (MGM)
• Noah Galvin – Theater Camp (Searchlight Pictures)
• Matthew Goode – Freud’s Last Session (Sony Pictures Classics)
• Louis Gossett Jr. – The Color Purple (Warner Bros)
• Stephen Graham – Blitz (Apple Original Films)
• Tom Hardy – The Bikeriders (20th Century Studios)
• Stephen McKinley Henderson – Civil War (A24)
• Bill Irwin – Rustin (Netflix)
• Jude Law – Firebrand (MGM)
• Gabriel Leone – Ferrari NEON)
• Anders Danielsen Lie – Mothers Instinct (NEON)
• James McAvoy – The Book of Clarence (Sony Pictures)
• Matthew Macfadyen – Holland, Michigan (Amazon Studios)
• Paul Mescal – All of Us Strangers (Searchlight Pictures)
• Chris Messina – Air (Amazon Studios)
• Wagner Moura – Civil War (A24)
• Jack O’Connell – Ferrari (NEON)
• Aaron Pierre – Foe (Amazon Studios)
• Tahar Rahim – Napoleon (Apple Original Films/Sony Pictures)
• Seth Rogen – Dumb Money (Sony Pictures)
• Sebastian Stan – Dumb Money (Sony Pictures)
• Omar Sy – The Book of Clarence (Sony Pictures)
• Glynn Turman – Rustin (Netflix)
• Enzo Vogrincic – Society of the Snow (Netflix)

Without U.S. distribution: Paul Bettany – The Collaboration (TBD), Daniel Brühl – The Collaboration (TBD), Benedict Cumberbatch – The End We Start From (TBD), Willem Dafoe – Gonzo Girl (TBD), Chiwetel Ejiofor – Rob Peace (TBD), Paapa Essiedu – The Outrun (TBD), John Lithgow – Conclave (TBD), Jeremy Pope – The Collaboration (TBD), Jonathan Pryce – One Life (TBD), Andy Samberg – Lee (TBD), Alexander Skarsgård – Lee (TBD), Timothy Spall – Wicked Little Letters (TBD), Stanley Tucci – Conclave (TBD)