2024 Oscar Predictions: SUPPORTING ACTOR (December)

Almost identical to how supporting actress is playing out, five supporting actor contenders have earned both Golden Globe and Critics Choice nominations: Ryan Gosling in Barbie, Robert Downey Jr. in Oppenheimer, Mark Ruffalo in Poor Things, Robert De Niro in Killers of the Flower Moon and Charles Melton in May December.

Right now, Gosling, Downey Jr., Ruffalo and Melton are duking it out for critics’ wins with new announcements every day. Only De Niro has yet to earn one but he’s De Niro. Unless that makes him the most vulnerable here? Melton’s in the weaker film and could even find himself being its sole nomination (I don’t think that’s happening, but it could) but it’s hard to say who is truly the most vulnerable.

In fields of six, Willem Dafoe (Poor Things) earned a Globe nod while Sterling K. Brown (American Fiction) hit Critics Choice. If SAG goes for the five above I’d be hard pressed to find a proper in road for anyone else but a lot can happen between now and January 23. Dominic Sessa (The Holdovers) is such a mystery right now. Sure, he’s a newcomer in his first role but he’s a co-lead in one of the most loved films of the year that’s winning critics’ awards left and right even outside of Da’Vine Joy Randolph’s dominance. So why wasn’t he able to nab a Globe or Critics’ Choice nod? I think he could be the actual spoiler to this top five when all is said and done but something needs to happen for him soon. A surprise SAG nom would be a good start. Maybe it’s sly Oscar bellwether Dallas-Ft. Worth again this year…

The Golden Globes awards ceremony will be held on Sunday, January 7, 2024. The Screen Actors Guild will reveal their nominations on January 10 and the 30th SAG Awards will be held on February 24. Oscar nominations will be announced on January 23 and the 96th Academy Awards will be held on March 10.

Here are my 2024 Oscar predictions in Supporting Actor for December 2023.

1. Ryan Gosling – Barbie (Warner Bros) – CCA, GG
2. Robert Downey Jr. – Oppenheimer (Universal Pictures) – CCA, GG
3. Mark Ruffalo – Poor Things (Searchlight Pictures) – CCA, GG
4. Charles Melton – May December (Netflix) – CCA, GG
5. Robert De Niro – Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films) – CCA, GG
6. Dominic Sessa – The Holdovers (Focus Features)
7. Willem Dafoe – Poor Things (Searchlight Pictures) – GG
8. Sterling K. Brown – American Fiction (Amazon MGM Studios) – CCA
9. Colman Domingo – The Color Purple (Warner Bros)
10. Paul Mescal – All of Us Strangers (Searchlight Pictures)

Next up: Jamie Bell – All of Us Strangers (Searchlight Pictures), Matt Damon – Oppenheimer (Universal Pictures), Jacob Elordi – Saltburn (Amazon Studios), Glenn Howerton – BlackBerry (IFC Films), John Magaro – Past Lives (A24), Holt McCallany – The Iron Claw (A24), Peter Sarsgaard – Memory (Ketchup Entertainment)

Other contenders:

• Ben Affleck – Air (Amazon Studios)
• Jacob Elordi – Priscilla (A24)
• Rhys Ifans – Nyad (Netflix)
• Jeremy Allen White – The Iron Claw (A24)
• Ramy Youssef – Poor Things (Searchlight Pictures)

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Erik Anderson

Erik Anderson is the founder/owner and Editor-in-Chief of AwardsWatch and has always loved all things Oscar, having watched the Academy Awards since he was in single digits; making lists, rankings and predictions throughout the show. This led him down the path to obsessing about awards. Much later, he found himself in film school and the film forums of GoldDerby, and then migrated over to the former Oscarwatch (now AwardsDaily), before breaking off to create AwardsWatch in 2013.

He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Hollywood Critics Association (HCA) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.

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