2024 Oscar Predictions: SUPPORTING ACTOR (May)
Picture it, May 2023. My first supporting actor Oscar predictions of last season and in the top 5 are *checks notes* Robert De Niro and Jesse Plemons for Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon. Well, what’s old is new again as here we are a full year later with an actual release date for the film (October 6) and an out of competition debut at the Cannes Film Festival next, which begins next week.
De Niro, a two-time Oscar winner and 7-time acting nominee, missed out on his last collab with Scorsese (2019’s The Irishman, which did net him a Best Picture nod as a producer) and it’s been a decade since his last nomination, for 2012’s Silver Linings Playbook (in supporting actor). Plemons is a very recent nominee, earning his for 2021’s The Power of the Dog, in supporting.
They aren’t the only possible duos that could show up, as The Color Purple, Oppenheimer and Poor Things all have potential to net attention from its male supporting cast. Although the 1985 film version of The Color Purple didn’t earn a supporting actor nod for Danny Glover as Mister, the original 2005 Broadway production did earn a Featured Actor in a Musical nomination for Brandon Victor Dixon in the role of Harpo, played by Corey Hawkins in the new movie musical. There’s also Emmy Award winner Colman Domingo as Mister here and Academy Award winner Louis Gossett Jr. as Old Mister, either of whom could make a play. Oppenheimer, from Christopher Nolan, is a jam-packed ensemble headed by Cillian Murphy and the summer release could make a play for previous acting nominees Matt Damon (and winner for Original Screenplay) and/or Robert Downey Jr. Yorgos Lanthimos will give us Poor Things in early September, where Christopher Abbott and Ramy Youssef will aim for their first-ever nods against co-stars Willem Dafoe (four Oscar nominations) and Mark Ruffalo (three Oscar nominations). We won’t know proper category placement until we do but Dafoe is probably the best bet here.
I think that a handful of films feel like 2024 releases and it’s so early in the year that we know several undated films will likely get pushed. Netflix’s The Piano Lesson, starring Samuel L. Jackson and Danielle Deadwyler, just went into production last month and they have a very healthy slate to promote once again, but I’m including it for now as it took all the way to the fall festivals last year to officially know that the streamer’s Rustin and Shirley weren’t making the 2023 cut.
Here are my 2024 Oscar predictions in Supporting Actor for May 2023.
- Robert De Niro – Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
- Jesse Plemons – Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
- Colman Domingo – The Color Purple (Warner Bros)
- Willem Dafoe – Poor Things (Searchlight Pictures)
- Samuel L. Jackson – The Piano Lesson (Netflix)
- Corey Hawkins – The Color Purple (Warner Bros)
- Brian Tyree Henry – Flint Strong (MGM)
- Ryan Gosling – Barbie (Warner Bros) – lead or supporting?
- Richard E. Grant – Saltburn (Amazon Studios)
- Matt Damon – Oppenheimer (Universal Pictures)
Other contenders and/or possible 2024 releases:
- Christopher Abbott – Poor Things (Searchlight Pictures)
- Ben Affleck – Air (Amazon Studios)
- Riz Ahmed – Fingernails (Apple Original Films)
- Jason Bateman – Air (Amazon Studios)
- Jamie Bell – Strangers (Searchlight Pictures)
- Gael García Bernal – Holland, Michigan (Amazon Studios)
- Demián Bichir – Without Blood (Freemantle)
- Esteban Bigliardi – Society of the Snow (Netflix)
- Matt Bomer – Maestro (Netflix)
- Austin Butler – The Bikeriders (20th Century Studios)
- Raul Castillo – Cassandro (Amazon Studios)
- Josh Charles – Mothers Instinct (NEON)
- Benedict Cumberbatch – The Book of Clarence (Sony Pictures)
- Paul Dano – Spaceman (Netflix)
- Harris Dickinson – Blitz (Apple Original Films)
- Harris Dickinson – The Iron Claw (A24)
- Robert Downey Jr. – Oppenheimer (Universal Pictures)
- Joel Edgerton – The Boys in the Boat (MGM)
- Jacob Elordi – Priscilla (A24)
- Jacob Elordi – Saltburn (Amazon Studios)
- Chris Evans – Pain Hustlers (Netflix)
- Mike Faist – Challengers (MGM)
- Ben Foster – Long Day’s Journey Into Night (MGM)
- Noah Galvin – Theater Camp (Searchlight Pictures)
- Gideon Glick – Maestro (Netflix)
- Matthew Goode – Freud’s Last Session (Sony Pictures Classics)
- Louis Gossett Jr. – The Color Purple (Warner Bros)
- Stephen Graham – Blitz (Apple Original Films)
- Tom Hardy – The Bikeriders (20th Century Studios)
- Stephen McKinley Henderson – Civil War (A24)
- Lucas Hedges – Shirley (Netflix)
- Glenn Howerton – BlackBerry (IFC Films)
- Terrence Howard – Shirley (Netflix)
- Bill Irwin – Rustin (Netflix)
- Tommy Lee Jones – The Burial (Amazon Studios)
- Keegan-Michael Key – Wonka (Warner Bros)
- Gabriel Leone Ferrari (STX Entertainment)
- Anders Danielsen Lie – Mothers Instinct (NEON)
- John Magaro – Past Lives (A24)
- Eddie Marsan – Back to Black (Focus Features)
- James McAvoy – The Book of Clarence (Sony Pictures)
- Holt McCallany – The Iron Claw (A24)
- Matthew McFayden – Holland, Michigan (Amazon Studios)
- Charles Melton – May December (TBD)
- Paul Mescal – Strangers (Searchlight Pictures)
- Wagner Moura – Civil War (A24)
- Jack O’Connell – Back to Black (Focus Features)
- Jack O’Connell – Ferrari (STX Entertainment)
- Josh O’Connor – Challengers (MGM)
- Pedro Pascal – Drive-Away Dolls (Focus Features)
- Adam Pearson – A Different Man (A24)
- Aaron Pierre – Foe (Amazon Studios)
- Tahar Rahim – Napoleon (Apple Original Films/Sony Pictures)
- Seth Rogen – Dumb Money (Sony Pictures)
- Mark Ruffalo – Poor Things (Searchlight Pictures)
- Michael Shannon – The Bikeriders (20th Century Studios)
- Sebastian Stan – Dumb Money (Sony Pictures)
- Omar Sy – The Book of Clarence (Sony Pictures)
- Glynn Turman – Rustin (Netflix)
- Enzo Vogrincic – Society of the Snow (Netflix)
- Jeremy Allen White – The Iron Claw (A24)
- Ramy Youssef – Poor Things (Searchlight Pictures)
Without U.S. distribution: Paul Bettany – The Collaboration (TBD), Daniel Brühl – The Collaboration (TBD), Benedict Cumberbatch – The End We Start From (TBD), Willem Dafoe – Gonzo Girl (TBD), Chiwetel Ejiofor – Rob Peace (TBD), Paapa Essiedu – The Outrun (TBD), Jude Law – Firebrand (TBD), John Lithgow – Conclave (TBD), Jeremy Pope – The Collaboration (TBD), Jonathan Pryce – One Life (TBD), Andy Samberg – Lee (TBD), Alexander Skarsgård – Lee (TBD), Timothy Spall – Wicked Little Letters (TBD), Stanley Tucci – Conclave (TBD)
Photo: DFree / Shutterstock
He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Hollywood Critics Association (HCA) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.
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