2024 Oscar Predictions: SUPPORTING ACTOR (October)

Ryan Gosling (Barbie) leap frogs over Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer) this month but otherwise the lineup is not finding itself easy to move around. The top four of Gosling, Downey Jr., Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon) and Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things) feels almost impenetrable with that 5th spot a real right between four-time previous nominee Willem Dafoe and newcomer Charles Melton (May December).

The recency bias of this category to have two nominees from the same film is definitely lording over it and logic says Dafoe should make it in over Melton. But the latter’s reviews are across the board great, even naming him best in show in a film with Oscar winners Natalie Portman and Julianne Moore, no small feat. But it’s not even November, lots can change, as it often does.

The Screen Actors Guild (who are still currently under strike) will reveal their nominations on January 10, 2024 and the 30th SAG Awards will be held on February 24. Oscar nominations will be announced on January 23 and the 96th Academy Awards will be held on March 10.

Here are my 2024 Oscar predictions in Supporting Actor for October 2023.

1. Ryan Gosling – Barbie (Warner Bros) (▲)
2. Robert Downey Jr. – Oppenheimer (Universal Pictures) (▼)
3. Robert De Niro – Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures) (-)
4. Mark Ruffalo – Poor Things (Searchlight Pictures) (-)
5. Charles Melton – May December (Netflix) (-)
6. Willem Dafoe – Poor Things (Searchlight Pictures) (-)
7. Colman Domingo – The Color Purple (Warner Bros) (-)
8. Dominic Sessa – The Holdovers (Focus Features) (-)
9. Sterling K. Brown – American Fiction (Amazon MGM) (-)
10. Paul Mescal – All of Us Strangers (Searchlight Pictures) (-)

Next up: Matt Damon – Oppenheimer (Universal Pictures), Jacob Elordi – Priscilla (A24), John Magaro – Past Lives (A24), Holt McCallany – The Iron Claw (A24) (▲), Jeremy Allen White – The Iron Claw (A24)

Other contenders:

• Christopher Abbott – Poor Things (Searchlight Pictures)
• Ben Affleck – Air (Amazon Studios) (▼)
• Jamie Bell – All of Us Strangers (Searchlight Pictures)
• Jon Bernthal – Origin (NEON) (NEW)
• Austin Butler – The Bikeriders (20th Century Studios)
• Raul Castillo – Cassandro (Amazon Studios)
• Jacob Elordi – Saltburn (Amazon Studios) (▼)
• Matthew Goode – Freud’s Last Session (Sony Pictures Classics)
• Richard E. Grant – Saltburn (Amazon Studios)
• Louis Gossett Jr. – The Color Purple (Warner Bros)
• Tom Hardy – The Bikeriders (20th Century Studios)
• Glenn Howerton – BlackBerry (IFC Films) (▼)
• Rhys Ifans – NYAD (Netflix)
• Tommy Lee Jones – The Burial (Amazon Studios) (▼)
• Chris Messina – Air (Amazon Studios)
• Jesse Plemons – Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures) (▼)
• Tahar Rahim – Napoleon (Apple Original Films/Sony Pictures)
• Michael Shannon – The Bikeriders (20th Century Studios)
• Glynn Turman – Rustin (Netflix) (▼)
• Ramy Youssef – Poor Things (Searchlight Pictures) (▼)

Photo: François Duhamel / Courtesy of Netflix

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Erik Anderson

Erik Anderson is the founder/owner and Editor-in-Chief of AwardsWatch and has always loved all things Oscar, having watched the Academy Awards since he was in single digits; making lists, rankings and predictions throughout the show. This led him down the path to obsessing about awards. Much later, he found himself in film school and the film forums of GoldDerby, and then migrated over to the former Oscarwatch (now AwardsDaily), before breaking off to create AwardsWatch in 2013.

He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Hollywood Critics Association (HCA) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.

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