2024 Primetime Emmy Awards Winner Predictions: With Three Voting Days Left, Has Anything Changed?

Emmy Awards voting is ongoing until August 26, allowing for final promotional and FYC campaigns to drive life into some of these Emmy dreams. 

Moving closer towards the ceremony, I am not keen on shifting predictions too heavily – or at all, really. This year’s race has felt more stagnant than previous years, likely due to both a decrease in enthusiasm with the nominees and a smaller pool of series in contention for top prizes. With shows like Succession and House of the Dragon not eligible, the fanaticism brought by some audiences isn’t on display as it usually is, which makes the winners feel a little more concrete this year. 

Shōgun seems poised to dominate most drama categories after it was moved out of limited series. I’m starting to believe that second place belongs to Mr. and Mrs. Smith, a series that outdid itself in nominations in the guest categories. Could that be indicative of an underlying support for the Prime Video series that could see it sneak up in a couple categories? Seems mostly unlikely, but nothing is out of the realm of possibility with the Television Academy. The Crown is destined to fizzle out at the end of its run, its biggest hope for a final Emmy residing in Elizabeth Debicki for her supporting performance as Princess Diana. The Morning Show has done well in past ceremonies, but it doesn’t have much vocal support that could keep it at the front of the race.

While the comedy categories are competitive, it will likely come down to Hacks and The Bear in most of them. Meryl Streep provides the biggest chance for Only Murders in the Building to clinch a win this year, but Hannah Einbinder is right behind her, fresh off of her best season yet of Hacks. Jeremy Allen White will repeat his win from last year and Jean Smart will very likely return to the winner’s circle for the third season of Hacks. Other certainties at the ceremony will come in the Limited Series categories, where Baby Reindeer will likely parade through the categories collecting wins. Jessica Gunning winning supporting actress seems more concrete than the actual date of the ceremony.

It’s been a fascinating year to watch unfold as we get closer to television’s biggest night. 

Here are my predictions for the winners of the 2024 Emmys: 

Outstanding Drama Series

The Crown (Netflix)
Fallout (Prime Video)
The Gilded Age (HBO)
The Morning Show (AppleTV+)
Could win: Mr. and Mrs. Smith (Prime Video)
Predicted winner: Shōgun (FX)
Slow Horses (AppleTV+)
3 Body Problem (Netflix)

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series

Jennifer Aniston The Morning Show (AppleTV+)
Could win: Carrie Coon, The Gilded Age (HBO/Max)
Maya Erskine, Mr. and Mrs. Smith (Prime Video)
Predicted winner: Anna Sawai, Shōgun (FX)
Imelda Staunton, The Crown (Netflix)
Reese Witherspoon, The Morning Show (AppleTV+)

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series

Idris Elba, Hijack (AppleTV+)
Donald Glover, Mr. and Mrs. Smith (Prime Video)
Walton Goggins, Fallout (Prime Video)
Could win: Gary Oldman, Slow Horses (AppleTV+)
Predicted winner: Hiroyuki Sanada, Shōgun (FX)
Dominic West, The Crown (Netflix)

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series

Could win: Christine Baranski, The Gilded Age (HBO/Max)
Nicole Beharie, The Morning Show (AppleTV+)
Predicted winner: Elizabeth Debicki, The Crown (Netflix)
Greta Lee, The Morning Show (AppleTV+)
Lesley Manville, The Crown (Netflix)
Karen Pittman, The Morning Show (AppleTV+)
Holland Taylor, The Morning Show (AppleTV+)

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series

Tadanobu Asano, Shōgun (FX)
Predicted winner: Billy Crudup, The Morning Show (AppleTV+)
Mark Duplass, The Morning Show (AppleTV+)
Jon Hamm, The Morning Show (AppleTV+)
Could win: Takehiro Hira, Shōgun (FX)
Jack Lowden, Slow Horses (AppleTV+)
Jonathan Pryce, The Crown (Netflix)

Outstanding Guest Actor in a Drama Series

Predicted winner: Néstor Carbonell, Shogun (FX)
Could win: Paul Dano, Mr. & Mrs. Smith (Prime Video)
Tracy Letts, Winning Time: The Rise of the Lakers Dynasty (HBO/Max)
Jonathan Pryce, Slow Horses (AppleTV+)
John Turturro, Mr. & Mrs. Smith (Prime Video)

Outstanding Guest Actress in a Drama Series

Michaela Coel, Mr. & Mrs. Smith (Prime Video)
Could win: Claire Foy, The Crown (Netflix)
Marcia Gay Harden, The Morning Show (AppleTV+)
Predicted winner: Sarah Paulson, Mr. & Mrs. Smith (Prime Video)
Parker Posey, Mr. & Mrs. Smith (Prime Video)

Outstanding Comedy Series

Abbott Elementary (ABC)
Predicted winner: The Bear (FX)
Curb Your Enthusiasm (HBO/Max)
Could win: Hacks (HBO/Max)
Only Murders in the Building (Hulu)
Palm Royale (AppleTV+)
Reservation Dogs (FX)
What We Do in the Shadows (FX)

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series

Matt Berry, What We Do in the Shadows (FX)
Larry David, Curb Your Enthusiasm (HBO/Max)
Steve Martin, Only Murders in the Building (Hulu)
Could win: Martin Short, Only Murders in the Building (Hulu)
Predicted winner: Jeremy Allen White, The Bear (FX)
D’Pharaoh Woon-A-Tai, Reservation Dogs (FX)

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series

Quinta Brunson, Abbott Elementary (ABC)
Could win: Ayo Edebiri, The Bear (FX)
Selena Gomez, Only Murders in the Building (Hulu)
Maya Rudolph, Loot (AppleTV+)
Predicted winner: Jean Smart, Hacks (HBO/Max)
Kristen Wiig, Palm Royale (AppleTV+) 

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series 

Lionel Boyce, The Bear (FX)
Could win: Paul W. Downs, Hacks (HBO/Max)
Predicted winner: Ebon Moss-Bachrach, The Bear (FX)
Paul Rudd, Only Murders in the Building (Hulu)
Tyler James Williams, Abbott Elementary (ABC)
Bowen Yang, Saturday Night Live (NBC)

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series 

Carol Burnett, Palm Royale (AppleTV+)
Liza Colón-Zayas, The Bear (FX)
Could win: Hannah Einbinder, Hacks (HBO/Max)
Janelle James, Abbott Elementary (ABC)
Sheryl Lee Ralph, Abbott Elementary (ABC)
Predicted winner: Meryl Streep, Only Murders in the Building (Hulu)

Outstanding Guest Actor in a Comedy Series

Jon Bernthal, The Bear (FX)
Matthew Broderick, Only Murders in the Building (Hulu)
Ryan Gosling, Saturday Night Live (NBC)
Couls win: Christopher Lloyd, Hacks (HBO/Max)
Bob Odenkirk, The Bear (FX)

Will Poulter, The Bear (FX)

Outstanding Guest Actress in a Comedy Series

Olivia Colman, The Bear (FX)
Predicted winner: Jamie Lee Curtis, The Bear (FX)
Could win: Kaitlin Olson, Hacks (HBO/Max)
Da’Vine Joy Randolph, Only Murders in the Building (Hulu)
Maya Rudolph, Saturday Night Live (NBC)
Kristen Wiig, Saturday Night Live (NBC)

Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series

Predicted winner: Baby Reindeer (Netflix)
Fargo (FX)
Lessons in Chemistry (AppleTV+)
Ripley (Netflix)
Could win: True Detective: Night Country (HBO/Max)

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie

Could win: Matt Bomer, Fellow Travelers (Showtime)
Predicted winner: Richard Gadd, Baby Reindeer (Netflix)
Jon Hamm, Fargo (FX)
Tom Hollander, Feud: Capote vs. the Swans (FX)
Andrew Scott, Ripley (Netflix)

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie

Predicted winner: Jodie Foster, True Detective: Night Country (HBO/Max)
Could win: Brie Larson, Lessons in Chemistry (AppleTV+)
Juno Temple, Fargo (FX)
Sofía Vergara, Griselda (Netflix)
Naomi Watts, Feud: Capote vs. The Swans (FX)

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie

Predicted winner: Jonathan Bailey, Fellow Travelers (Showtime)
Robert Downey Jr., The Sympathizer (HBO/Max)
Tom Goodman-Hill, Baby Reindeer (Netflix)
Could win: John Hawkes, True Detective: Night Country (HBO/Max)
Lamorne Morris, Fargo (FX)
Lewis Pullman, Lessons in Chemistry (AppleTV+)
Treat Williams, Feud: Capote vs. The Swans (FX)

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie

Dakota Fanning Ripley (Netflix)
Lily Gladstone, Under the Bridge (Hulu)
Predicted winner: Jessica Gunning, Baby Reindeer (Netflix)
Aja Naomi King, Lessons in Chemistry (AppleTV+)
Diane Lane, Feud: Capote vs. The Swans (FX)
Nava Mau, Baby Reindeer (Netflix)
Could win: Kali Reis, True Detective: Night Country (HBO/Max)

Outstanding Directing for a Drama Series

Stephen Daldry, The Crown – “Sleep, Dearie Sleep” Netflix)
Mimi Leder, The Morning Show – “The Overview Effect” (AppleTV+)
Could win: Hiro Murai, Mr. & Mrs. Smith – “First Date” (Prime Video)

Predicted winner: Frederick E.O. Toye, Shōgun – “Chapter Nine: Crimson Sky” (FX)
Saul Metzstein, Slow Horses – “Strange Games” (AppleTV+)
Salli Richardson-Whitfield, Winning Time: The Rise of the Lakers Dynasty (HBO/Max)

Outstanding Directing for a Comedy Series

Randall Einhorn, Abbott Elementary – “Party” (ABC)

Predicted winner: Christopher Storer, The Bear – “Fishes” (FX)
Ramy Youssef, The Bear – “Honeydew” (FX)

Guy Ritchie, The Gentlemen -”Refined Aggression” (Netflix)
Could win: Lucia Aniello, Hacks – “Bulletproof” (HBO/Max)
Mary Lou Belli, The Ms. Pat Show – “I’m the Pappy” (BET)

Outstanding Directing for a Limited Series

Predicted winner: Weronika Tofilska, Baby Reindeer – “Episode 1” (Netflix)
Noah Hawley, Fargo – “The Tragedy of the Commons” (FX)
Could win: Gus Van Sant, Feud: Capote v the Swans – “Pilot” (FX)
Millicent Shelton, Lessons in Chemistry – “Poirot” (AppleTV+)
Steve Zaillian, Ripley (Netflix)
Issa Lopez, True Detective: Night Country (HBO/MAX)

Outstanding Writing for a Drama Series

Peter Morgan, Meriel Sheibani-Clare, The Crown – “Sleep, Dearie Sleep” (Netflix)

Geneva Robertson-Dworet, Graham Wagner, Fallout – “The End” (Prime Video)
Could win: Francesca Sloane, Donald Glover, Mr. & Mrs. Smith – “First Date” (Prime Video)
Predicted winner: Rachel Kondo, Justin Marks, Shōgun – “Chapter One: Anjin” (FX)

Rachel Kondo, Caillin Puente, Shōgun – “Chapter Nine: Crimson Sky” (FX)
Will Smith, Slow Horses – “Negotiating With Tigers” (AppleTV+)

Outstanding Writing for a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie

Could win: Richard Gadd, Baby Reindeer (Netflix)
Charlie Brooker, Black Mirror – “Joan is Awful” (Netflix)
Predicted winner: Noah Hawley, Fargo – “The Tragedy of the Commons” (FX)
Ron Nyswaner, Fellow Travelers – “You’re Wonderful” (Showtime)
Steven Zaillian, Ripley (Netflix)
Issa López, True Detective: Night Country – “Part 6” (HBO/Max)

Outstanding Writing for a Comedy Series


Quinta Brunson, Abbott Elementary –  “Career Day” (ABC)
Could win: Christopher Storer, The Bear – “Fishes” (FX)
Meredith Scardino, Sam Means, Girls5eva – “Orlando” (Netflix)
Predicted winner: Lucia Aniello, Paul W. Downs, Jen Statsky, Hacks – “Bulletproof”(HBO/Max)
Chris Kelly, Sarah Schneider, The Other Two – “Brooke Hosts A Night of Undeniable Good”  (HBO/Max)
Jake Bender, Zach Dunn, What We Do in the Shadows – “Pride Parade” (FX)

Outstanding Talk Series

The Daily Show (Comedy Central)
Predicted winner: Jimmy Kimmel Live! (ABC)
Could win: Late Night With Seth Meyers (NBC)
The Late Show With Stephen Colbert (CBS)

Outstanding Reality Competition Series

The Amazing Race (CBS)
Could win: RuPaul’s Drag Race (MTV)
Top Chef (Bravo)
Predicted winner: The Traitors (Peacock)
The Voice (NBC)

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Tyler Doster

Tyler is the TV Awards Editor for AwardsWatch and from Tuscaloosa, Alabama. He’s been obsessed with movies and the oscars since he was about 14. He enjoys reading, but even more, talking about Amy Adams more and will, at any given moment, bring up her Oscar snub for Arrival. The only thing he spends more time on than watching TV is sitting on Twitter. If you ever want to discuss the movie Carol at length, he’s your guy. You can find Tyler at @wordswithtyler

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