2024 Primetime Emmy Winner Predictions: Who’s Out Front Two Weeks Ahead of Voting

With Phase I of the Emmy Awards, the nominations, out of the way, it’s onto Phase II, voting for the winners with episode-based submissions. After months of campaigning, networks and streamers now face the challenge of positioning their nominees at the forefront of voters’ attention in the hopes of seeing victories in top categories in September. Voters will look towards their second round of winners in a single calendar year. 

The FX series moved into drama after it was announced the network would be looking into potential further seasons for the show, effectively taking it out of the limited series race. The series can be found in most of the main drama categories other than supporting actress, with the potential of taking home multiple awards in September. The Morning Show staked its claim in many of the drama categories as well, the most being in supporting actress where the AppleTV+ drama found itself with four spots out of eight. Jennifer Aniston and Reese Witherspoon both grabbed spots in the lead actress pool, with Aniston a former winner in the category for her role in the series. Billy Crudup could find another win in the supporting actor category for his performance. And there will be a tough competition in actress, but Anna Sawai seems poised to take the win. AppleTV+ also found success with Slow Horses this year, a series on its third season that has finally broken through and will compete for several wins this year. The Crown will compete for its final season that had a lackluster response compared to previous outings, so it will be an upward battle for Netflix’s drama to compete against shows like Shōgun this year. 

There are fun nominations in the comedy categories, Matt Berry’s for What We Do in the Shadows being one of the best (and most deserved) in recent memory. Reservation Dogs will join the competition for its final season, also earning a nomination in leading actor for D’Pharoah Woon-A-Tai. The comedy categories will see the biggest competition coming between Hacks and The Bear, two series that will go against each other in almost every category as they attempt to grab the top prize. Ayo Ederbiri has shifted from supporting into lead so she will now be going against Jean Smart, back this year after Hacks took a year off last year . They’re joined by Quinta Brunson, forming a measured competition for the top spot in this category. Jean Smart will likely return to the winners circle this year with her performance on Hacks. Jeremy Allen White doesn’t face much competition after the hype of last season. 

Baby Reindeer looks to do well in the limited series and anthology categories. Jessica Gunning is all but assured victory in the supporting actress category. It was a huge year for limited series, so shows like Fargo, Fellow Travelers, True Detective: Night Country, and Lessons in Chemistry will put up a huge fight with one another in the other categories. Shōgun’s shift out of these categories has provided a huge clearing for a big competition to take place between the remaining shows, as the FX series would have likely taken most of these categories had it remained.

Night One of the Creative Arts Emmys this year will be held Saturday, September 7, Night Two on Sunday, September 8 and the 76th Primetime Emmy Awards will be Sunday, September 15 live on ABC. You can find the breakdown of awards for each night here.

Here are my predictions for what will win and what could win at the 2024 Emmys: 

Outstanding Drama Series

Could win: The Crown (Netflix)
Fallout (Prime Video)
The Gilded Age (HBO | Max)
The Morning Show (AppleTV+)
Mr. and Mrs. Smith (Prime Video)
Predicted winner: Shōgun (FX)
Slow Horses (AppleTV+)
3 Body Problem (Netflix)

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series

Could win: Jennifer Aniston The Morning Show (AppleTV+)
Carrie Coon, The Gilded Age (HBO | Max)
Maya Erskine, Mr. and Mrs. Smith (Prime Video)
Predicted winner: Anna Sawai, Shōgun (FX)
Imelda Staunton, The Crown (Netflix)
Reese Witherspoon, The Morning Show (AppleTV+)

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series

Idris Elba, Hijack (AppleTV+)
Donald Glover, Mr. and Mrs. Smith (Prime Video)
Walton Goggins, Fallout, (Prime Video)
Could win: Gary Oldman, Slow Horses (AppleTV+)
Predicted winner: Hiroyuki Sanada, Shōgun (FX)
Dominic West, The Crown (Netflix)

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series

Could win: Christine Baranski, The Gilded Age (HBO | Max)
Nicole Beharie, The Morning Show (AppleTV+)
Predicted winner: Elizabeth Debicki, The Crown (Netflix)
Greta Lee, The Morning Show (AppleTV+)
Lesley Manville, The Crown (Netflix)
Karen Pittman, The Morning Show (AppleTV+)
Holland Taylor, The Morning Show (AppleTV+)

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series

Tadanobu Asano, Shōgun (FX)
Predicted winner: Billy Crudup, The Morning Show (AppleTV+)
Mark Duplass, The Morning Show (AppleTV+)
Jon Hamm, The Morning Show (AppleTV+)
Could win: Takehiro Hira, Shōgun (FX)
Jack Lowden, Slow Horses (AppleTV+)
Jonathan Pryce, The Crown (Netflix)

Outstanding Guest Actor in a Drama Series

Predicted winner: Néstor Carbonell, Shogun (FX)
Could win: Paul Dano, Mr. & Mrs. Smith (Prime Video)
Tracy Letts, Winning Time: The Rise of the Lakers Dynasty (HBO)
Jonathan Pryce, Slow Horses (AppleTV+)
John Turturro, Mr. & Mrs. Smith (Prime Video)

Outstanding Guest Actress in a Drama Series

Michaela Coel, Mr. & Mrs. Smith (Prime Video)
Could win: Claire Foy, The Crown (Netflix)
Marcia Gay Harden, The Morning Show (AppleTV+)
Predicted winner: Sarah Paulson, Mr. & Mrs. Smith (Prime Video)
Parker Posey, Mr. & Mrs. Smith (Prime Video)

Outstanding Comedy Series

Abbott Elementary (ABC)
Predicted winner: The Bear (FX)
Curb Your Enthusiasm (HBO)
Could win: Hacks (HBO | Max)
Only Murders in the Building (Hulu)
Palm Royale (AppleTV+)
Reservation Dogs (FX)
What We Do in the Shadows (FX)

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series

Matt Berry, What We Do in the Shadows (FX)
Larry David, Curb Your Enthusiasm (HBO)
Steve Martin, Only Murders in the Building (Hulu)
Could win: Martin Short, Only Murders in the Building (Hulu)
Predicted winner: Jeremy Allen White, The Bear (FX)
D’Pharaoh Woon-A-Tai, Reservation Dogs (FX)

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series

Quinta Brunson, Abbott Elementary (ABC)
Could win: Ayo Edebiri, The Bear (FX)
Selena Gomez, Only Murders in the Building (Hulu)
Maya Rudolph, Loot (AppleTV+)
Predicted winner: Jean Smart, Hacks (HBO | Max)
Kristen Wiig, Palm Royale (AppleTV+) 

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series 

Lionel Boyce, The Bear (FX)
Could win: Paul W. Downs, Hacks (HBO | Max)
Predicted winner: Ebon Moss-Bachrach, The Bear (FX)
Paul Rudd, Only Murders in the Building (Hulu)
Tyler James Williams, Abbott Elementary (ABC)
Bowen Yang, Saturday Night Live (NBC)

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series 

Carol Burnett, Palm Royale (AppleTV+)
Liza Colón-Zayas, The Bear (FX)
Could win: Hannah Einbinder, Hacks (HBO | Max)
Janelle James, Abbott Elementary (ABC)
Sheryl Lee Ralph, Abbott Elementary (ABC)
Predicted winner: Meryl Streep, Only Murders in the Building (Hulu)

Outstanding Guest Actor in a Comedy Series

Jon Bernthal, The Bear (FX)
Matthew Broderick, Only Murders in the Building (Hulu)
Ryan Gosling, Saturday Night Live (NBC)
Couls win: Christopher Lloyd, Hacks (HBO | Max)
Bob Odenkirk, The Bear (FX)

Will Poulter, The Bear (FX)

Outstanding Guest Actress in a Comedy Series

Olivia Colman, The Bear (FX)
Predicted winner: Jamie Lee Curtis, The Bear (FX)
Could win: Kaitlin Olson, Hacks (HBO | Max)
Da’Vine Joy Randolph, Only Murders in the Building (Hulu)
Maya Rudolph, Saturday Night Live (NBC)
Kristen Wiig, Saturday Night Live (NBC)

Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series

Predicted winner: Baby Reindeer (Netflix)
Fargo (FX)
Lessons in Chemistry (AppleTV+)
Ripley (Netflix)
Could win: True Detective: Night Country (HBO)

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie

Could win: Matt Bomer, Fellow Travelers (Showtime)
Predicted winner: Richard Gadd, Baby Reindeer (Netflix)
Jon Hamm, Fargo (FX)
Tom Hollander, Feud: Capote vs. the Swans (FX)
Andrew Scott, Ripley (Netflix)

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie

Predicted winner: Jodie Foster, True Detective: Night Country (HBO)
Could win: Brie Larson, Lessons in Chemistry (AppleTV+)
Juno Temple, Fargo (FX)
Sofía Vergara, Griselda (Netflix)
Naomi Watts, Feud: Capote vs. The Swans (FX)

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie

Predicted winner: Jonathan Bailey, Fellow Travelers (Showtime)
Robert Downey Jr., The Sympathizer (HBO | Max)
Tom Goodman-Hill, Baby Reindeer (Netflix)
Could win: John Hawkes, True Detective: Night Country (HBO)
Lamorne Morris, Fargo (FX)
Lewis Pullman, Lessons in Chemistry (AppleTV+)
Treat Williams, Feud: Capote vs. The Swans (FX)

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie

Dakota Fanning Ripley (Netflix)
Lily Gladstone, Under the Bridge (Hulu)
Predicted winner: Jessica Gunning, Baby Reindeer (Netflix)
Aja Naomi King, Lessons in Chemistry (AppleTV+)
Diane Lane, Feud: Capote vs. The Swans (FX)
Nava Mau, Baby Reindeer (Netflix)
Could win: Kali Reis, True Detective: Night Country (HBO)

Outstanding Directing for a Drama Series

Stephen Daldry, The Crown – “Sleep, Dearie Sleep” (Netflix)
Mimi Leder, The Morning Show – “The Overview Effect” (AppleTV+)
Could win: Hiro Murai, Mr. & Mrs. Smith – “First Date” (Prime Video)

Predicted winner: Frederick E.O. Toye, Shōgun – “Chapter Nine: Crimson Sky” (FX)
Saul Metzstein, Slow Horses – “Strange Games” (AppleTV+)
Salli Richardson-Whitfield, Winning Time: The Rise of the Lakers Dynasty – “Beat L.A.”(HBO)

Outstanding Directing for a Comedy Series

Randall Einhorn, Abbott Elementary – “Party” (ABC)

Predicted winner: Christopher Storer, The Bear – “Fishes” (FX)
Ramy Youssef, The Bear – “Honeydew” (FX)

Guy Ritchie, The Gentlemen -”Refined Aggression” (Netflix)
Could win: Lucia Aniello, Hacks – “Bulletproof” (HBO | Max)
Mary Lou Belli, The Ms. Pat Show – “I’m the Pappy” (BET)

Outstanding Directing for a Limited Series

Predicted winner: Weronika Tofilska, Baby Reindeer – “Episode 1” (Netflix)
Noah Hawley, Fargo – “The Tragedy of the Commons” (FX)
Could win: Gus Van Sant, Feud: Capote v the Swans – “Pilot” (FX)
Millicent Shelton, Lessons in Chemistry – “Poirot” (AppleTV+)
Steve Zaillian, Ripley (Netflix)
Issa Lopez, True Detective: Night Country (HBO)

Outstanding Writing for a Drama Series

Peter Morgan, Meriel Sheibani-Clare, The Crown – “Sleep, Dearie Sleep” (Netflix)

Geneva Robertson-Dworet, Graham Wagner, Fallout – “The End” (Prime Video)
Could win: Francesca Sloane, Donald Glover, Mr. & Mrs. Smith – “First Date” (Prime Video)
Predicted winner: Rachel Kondo, Justin Marks, Shōgun – “Chapter One: Anjin” (FX)

Rachel Kondo, Caillin Puente, Shōgun – “Chapter Nine: Crimson Sky” (FX)
Will Smith, Slow Horses – “Negotiating With Tigers” (AppleTV+)

Outstanding Writing for a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie

Could win: Richard Gadd, Baby Reindeer (Netflix)
Charlie Brooker, Black Mirror – “Joan is Awful” (Netflix)
Predicted winner: Noah Hawley, Fargo – “The Tragedy of the Commons” (FX)
Ron Nyswaner, Fellow Travelers – “You’re Wonderful” (Showtime)
Steven Zaillian, Ripley (Netflix)
Issa López, True Detective: Night Country – “Part 6” (HBO)

Outstanding Writing for a Comedy Series

Quinta Brunson, Abbott Elementary –  “Career Day” (ABC)
Could win: Christopher Storer, The Bear – “Fishes” (FX)
Meredith Scardino, Sam Means, Girls5eva – “Orlando” (Netflix)
Predicted winner: Lucia Aniello, Paul W. Downs, Jen Statsky, Hacks – “Bulletproof”(HBO | Max)
Chris Kelly, Sarah Schneider, The Other Two – “Brooke Hosts A Night of Undeniable Good”  (HBO | Max)
Jake Bender, Zach Dunn, What We Do in the Shadows – “Pride Parade” (FX)

Outstanding Talk Series

The Daily Show (Comedy Central)
Predicted winner: Jimmy Kimmel Live! (ABC)
Could win: Late Night With Seth Meyers (NBC)
The Late Show With Stephen Colbert (CBS)

Outstanding Reality Competition Series

The Amazing Race (CBS)
Could win: RuPaul’s Drag Race (MTV)
Top Chef (Bravo)
Predicted winner: The Traitors (Peacock)
The Voice (NBC)

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Tyler Doster

Tyler is the TV Awards Editor for AwardsWatch and from Tuscaloosa, Alabama. He’s been obsessed with movies and the oscars since he was about 14. He enjoys reading, but even more, talking about Amy Adams more and will, at any given moment, bring up her Oscar snub for Arrival. The only thing he spends more time on than watching TV is sitting on Twitter. If you ever want to discuss the movie Carol at length, he’s your guy. You can find Tyler at @wordswithtyler

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