2025 Oscar Predictions: ANIMATED FEATURE, DOCUMENTARY FEATURE and INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM (November)
The Animated Feature race feels squarely between two films and a classic studio rivalry, Dreamworks’ The Wild Robot and Pixar’s Inside Out 2, that goes back to the very first award in this category, when Shrek beat out Monsters, Inc.
The Wild Robot director Chris Sanders is a three-time Oscar bridesmaid here, with nominations for 2003’s Lilo and Stitch, 2011’s How to Train Your Dragon and 2014’s The Croods. One of those times, HTTYD, he lost to another huge Pixar legacy sequel, Toy Story 3. The success of sequels in this category, especially for Walt Disney and Pixar, has been hit and miss. Both Frozen and Frozen 2 won for Disney, but Finding Dory missed a nomination entirely for Pixar. Sony’s Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse bested Incredibles 2 but then just last season the Spider-Verse sequel (part two of three) lost to Hiyao Miyazaki’s The Boy and the Heron. Miyazaki was the second winner ever in this category, with 2001’s Spirited Away.
Hot button topics in a post-Trump election win are likely to bubble to the surface for topics like immigration, trans rights, abortion and war. While these are already subjects that the branch would be naturally drawn to, you can expect that they’ll receive even more attention for films like No Other Land, Will & Harper, Porcelain War, Zurawski v Texas and more. We already have Critics Choice winners in Will & Harper and Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story but the ‘Critics Choice curse’ remains a strong one and celebrity bio-docs aren’t likely to find themselves able to compete with more ‘serious’ topics. See the Michael J. Fox film from last year, or the countless others that preceded it.
Emmy Award winner Jim Henson Idea Man received a one week limited theatrical run before its television debut, making it eligible here however, The Greatest Night in Pop went from a premiere at Sundance directly to Netflix and therefore isn’t eligible. According to Academy rules, a doc can bypass the theatrical run by “winning a festival award”qualifying award at a competitive film festival, as specified in the Documentary Feature Film Qualifying Festival List, regardless of any prior public exhibition or distribution by nontheatrical means” but The Greatest Night in Pop, the behind the scenes look at the creation of the star-studded “We Are the World” single, did not. The celebrated Palestinian film No Other Land is still without U.S. distribution but its win at Berlin will (should) qualify it here.
The International Feature Film race has settled on 85 submissions (the final list from the Academy is incoming) and it’s a very hotly contested season. Even with what feels like a breakaway frontrunner in Emilia Pérez (France), which is expected to earn nominations elsewhere, we have a deep bench of Cannes, Venice and Berlin hits and another season with a unique title that could be enough to push it into shortlist territory.
Once again, we also have crossover in these categories with Flow (Latvia) and The Glassworker (Pakistan) contending in Animated and International Feature and Dahomey representing Senegal and also in the doc race.
The Oscar shortlist for Documentary Feature (15) and International Feature Film (15) will be revealed on December 17, 2024. Academy Awards nominations will be announced January 17, 2025 and the 97th Oscars will be held on March 2.
Here are my 2025 Oscar predictions in Animated Feature, Documentary Feature and International Feature Film for November 2024.
ANIMATED FEATURE
| 1. The Wild Robot (Dreamworks/Universal) |
| 2. Inside Out 2 (Walt Disney/Pixar) |
| 3. Memoir of a Snail (IFC Films) |
| 4. Flow (Janus Films/Sideshow) |
| 5. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (Aardman/Netflix) |
| 6. Piece by Piece (Focus Features) |
| 7. Moana 2 (Walt Disney) |
| 8. The Lord of the Rings: The War of Rohirrim (Warner Bros) |
| 9. Spellbound (Netflix/Skydance) |
| 10. Transformers One (Paramount Pictures) |
Next up: Demon Slayer: Kimetsu No Yaiba – To the Hashira Training (Toho), Despicable Me 4 (Illumination/Universal Pictures), The Glassworker (Geo Films), The Imaginary (Netflix), That Christmas (Netflix), Ultraman: Rising (Netflix)
Other contenders: Chicken for Linda (GKids), The Colors Within (GKids), The Day the Earth Blew Up: A Looney Tunes Movie (Ketchup Entertainment), The Garfield Movie (Sony Pictures), Haikyu!! The Dumpster Battle (Toho), Hitpig! (Viva Pictures), Kung Fu Panda 4 (Dreamworks/Universal), Look Back (GKids)
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
| 1. Dahomey (MUBI) | Golden Bear for Best Film – Berlin, EFA, Gotham |
| 2. No Other Land (No U.S. distribution) | Berlinale Documentary Award – Berlin, BIFA, EFA, Gotham |
| 3. Daughters (Netflix) | CCA |
| 4. Sugarcane (National Geographic Documentary Films) | CCA |
| 5. Black Box Diaries (MTV Documentary Films) | |
| 6. Will & Harper (Netflix) | CCA |
| 7. Ernest Cole: Lost and Found (Magnolia Pictures) | |
| 8. Soundtrack to a Coup d’etat (Kino Lorber) | EFA, Gotham |
| 9. Porcelain War (Picturehouse) | Sundance |
| 10. The Remarkable Life of Ibelin (Netflix) | CCA |
| 11. The Last of the Sea Women (Apple Original Films) | |
| 12. Union (Level Ground) – Gotham | |
| 13. Frida (Amazon MGM) | |
| 14. Bread and Roses (Apple Original Films) | |
| 15. Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story (Warner Bros) | BIFA, CCA |
Next up: The Commandant’s Shadow (HBO Documentary Films), Girls State (Apple TV+), Hollywoodgate (Fourth Act Film), In Limbo – EFA, Intercepted – Gotham, Kiss the Future (Artists Equity/Fifth Season), Music by John Williams (Disney+) – CCA, Piece by Piece – CCA, Queendom (Dogwoof/Greenwich), (Seeking Mavis Beacon (NEON)
Other contenders: Billy & Molly: An Otter Love Story (National Geographic) – CCA, Bye Bye Tiberias – EFA, The Contestant – BIFA, Grand Theft Hamlet – BIFA, Two Strangers Trying Not to Kill Each Other – BIFA, Witches – BIFA
INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
| 1. France – Emilia Pérez (Netflix) | Jury Prize – Cannes |
| 2. Germany – The Seed of the Sacred Fig (NEON) | Special Jury Prize – Cannes, EFA, BIFA |
| 3. Brazil – I’m Still Here (Sony Pictures Classics) | |
| 4. Denmark – The Girl with the Needle (MUBI) | |
| 5. Senegal – Dahomey (MUBI) | Golden Bear for Best Film – Berlin, EFA |
| 6. Italy – Vermiglio (Janus Films) | EFA, Gotham |
| 7. Ireland – Kneecap (Sony Pictures Classics) | |
| 8. Latvia – Flow (Sideshow/Janus) | EFA |
| 9. Thailand – How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies (Well Go USA) | |
| 10. Canada – Universal Language (Oscilloscope) | |
| 11. Iceland – Touch (Focus Features) | |
| 12. Mexico – Sujo (The Forge) | Sundance |
| 13. Portugal – Grand Tour (MUBI) | Best Director – Cannes |
| 14. Pakistan – The Glassworker | |
| 15. Norway – Armand (IFC Films) |
Next up: Costa Rica – Memories of a Burning Body, Japan – Cloud, Palestine – From Ground Zero, Romania – Three Kilometres to the End of the World, United Kingdom – Santosh
Other contenders: Argentina – Kill the Jockey, Austria – The Devil’s Bath, Belgium – Juliet Keeps Quiet, Cambodia – Meeting with Pol Pot, Chile – In Her Place, Czechia – Waves, India – Laapataa Ladies, Mongolia – If Only I Could Hibernate, Nepal – Shambhala
He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Hollywood Critics Association (HCA) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.
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