2025 Oscar Predictions: BEST ACTOR (December)

Just when Best Actor started to look pretty locked in…someone unexpected came knocking at the door.

Earlier in the month we heard from the Gotham Awards, who gave their lead performance win to Colman Domingo for Sing Sing, who then earned a Spirit Award nomination a few days later and this week secured both Golden Globe and Critics Choice noms. As expected, Ralph Fiennes (Conclave), Adrien Brody (The Brutalist) Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown) earned both of those as well and even Daniel Craig (Queer) did. That’s an easy five, right?

Almost. In the scattered realm of 12 spots at the Globes and six at CCA, someone rather unexpected rose up. Not Paul Mescal for Gladiator II or Jesse Eisenberg for A Real Pain or even Glen Powell for Hit Man (although the latter two hit GG) but instead it was Hugh Grant’s creepy, inviting intellectual from the A24 horror/thriller Heretic. Also, if you’re counting at home, that makes for five major Best Actor contenders from the studio, with at least three likely to get into the final five come Oscar nomination morning.

But how far can Grant really go? Will SAG or BAFTA bite? What if they both do? There’s a scenario in which Grant gets three or even all four precursors and still misses; it’s quite a classic move by the Oscars’ acting branch to bring someone so close only to shut the door. Grant being a potential first-time nominee actually benefits him a small bit as so many of those BAFTA/CCA/GG/SAG nominees that have missed have been Oscar-winning actresses like Marion Cotillard, Tilda Swinton and Emma Thompson but it happened to Timothée Chalamet just one year after his Oscar nomination for 2017’s Call Me By Your Name, denying him his ‘after glow’ nom for Beautiful Boy, and to Jake Gyllenhaal for 2014’s Nightcrawler, which would have been his long-awaited second nomination.

I’m just intrigued by the possibility of Benoit Blanc and his husband being co-nominees.

The BAFTA longlists drop on January 3 with nominations on January 15 and right in between there the Screen Actors Guild will have their say with nominations on January 8. Academy Awards nominations will be announced January 17, 2025 and the 97th Oscars will be held on March 2.

Here are my 2025 Oscar predictions in Best Actor for December.

Next up (alphabetical): 

Other contenders: Austin Butler – The Bikeriders (Focus Features), Timothée Chalamet – Dune Part Two (Warner Bros), Adam Driver – Megalopolis (Lionsgate), Andrew Garfield – We Live in Time (A24), Richard Gere – Oh, Canada (Kino Lorber), Elliott Heffernan — Blitz (Apple Original Films), Ethan Herisse – Nickel Boys (Amazon MGM), Tom Hanks – Here (Sony Pictures/Tri-Star), Josh Hartnett – Trap (Warner Bros), André Holland – Exhibiting Forgiveness (Roadside Attractions), Anthony Hopkins – One Life (Bleecker Street), Jharrel Jerome – Unstoppable (Amazon MGM), Keith Kupferer – Ghostlight (IFC Films) – Gotham, Spirit; Cillian Murphy – Small Things Like These (Lionsgate/Roadside Attractions), Joaquin Phoenix – Joker: Folie à Deux (Warner Bros), Jason Schwartzman – Between the Temples (Sony Pictures Classics), John David Washington – The Piano Lesson (Netflix), Robbie Williams – Better Man (Paramount Pictures)

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Erik Anderson

Erik Anderson is the founder/owner and Editor-in-Chief of AwardsWatch and has always loved all things Oscar, having watched the Academy Awards since he was in single digits; making lists, rankings and predictions throughout the show. This led him down the path to obsessing about awards. Much later, he found himself in film school and the film forums of GoldDerby, and then migrated over to the former Oscarwatch (now AwardsDaily), before breaking off to create AwardsWatch in 2013.

He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Hollywood Critics Association (HCA) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.

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