2025 Oscar Predictions: BEST PICTURE and BEST DIRECTOR (June)
Coming in with ‘early’ Oscar predictions a little later than last year, wanting to give some breathing room to Cannes and its winners and trying to take the barometer of the (almost) first half of the year in terms of other film festivals’ impact, the spring box office (as it were, or wasn’t) and who might have the staying power to keep afloat for the next six to eight months.
Sundance, Berlin and Cannes gave us a peek at several potential contenders we’ll see coming in the summer and fall, winning festival prizes and, in most cases, securing solid studio distribution. Kicking it off in January, right as last season’s Oscar nominations were being announced, director Sean Wang debuted his first feature film Dìdi (弟弟) on the very day he would receive an Oscar nomination for Best Documentary Short for his film Nai Nai & Wài Pó. While he didn’t win the Oscar, Dìdi (弟弟) triumphed with the festival Audience Award win for U.S. Narrative Feature, the Ensemble Award for its cast and a pickup from Focus Features, who will release the film on July 26. While Focus Features will have other priorities in the fall, Dìdi (弟弟) could land Wang some first-time director kudos throughout the season and a push in supporting actress for veteran actress Joan Chen would be realistic and deserved. Elsewhere, Alessandra Lacorazza’s In the Summers was a big double winner, taking the U.S. Grand Jury Prize and Directing Award. News broke just today that Music Box Films has picked up the winner for U.S. distribution later this summer after it hits the Tribeca and Frameline festivals this month. Jesse Eisenberg’s screenplay win for A Real Pain put it on the map in a big way as it also features a major supporting actor contender performance from Kieran Culkin. Searchlight Pictures will release the film on October 18. In the documentary categories, keep an eye on Daughters (hitting Netflix in August), Ibelin (Netflix), Porcelain War and Sugarcane (NatGeo/Disney+) and for international feature film, Mexico has a contender in Sujo.
Berlin kicked off Sebastian Stan’s Best Actor campaign with a lead performance win for A Different Man from A24 and Killer Films and will hit theaters on September 20. Mati Diop’s Golden Bear winner Dahomey should put her in the documentary feature conversation. Emily Watson, a two-time Oscar nominee, took Berlin’s supporting performance for Small Things Like These, which was just picked up by Lionsgate this week.
Finally we get to the big one, Cannes. One thing the year’s biggest and most glamorous festivals does best is give us our best hopes for the international feature film category and, quite consistently now, show us the ‘international’ director and film that will push its way through Oscar’s Best Picture and Best Director categories. Last year’s embarrassment of riches with Justine Triet’s Anatomy of a Fall and Jonathan Glazer’s The Zone of Interest turned their Cannes wins into Oscar gold (in original screenplay and international feature film, respectively) but both also made the picture and director cut. Netflix picked up Jury Prize and Best Actress winner Emilia Pérez for a cool $12m and will likely position it well this fall as an international feature film play for France (it’s largely in Spanish but a French production) as well as parsing out where to place the quartet of actresses who won the Cannes prize – Karla Sofía Gascón, Zoe Saldaña, Selena Gomez and Adriana Paz – with the smart bet being Gascón as the sole lead. Speaking of actress contenders (and more), Sean Baker’s Anora, the Palme d’Or winner, marks the unprecedented 5th top Cannes prize in a row for distributor NEON after Parasite (2019), Titane (2021), Triangle of Sadness (2022) and last year’s Anatomy of a Fall. The film, which was just revealed to be getting a mid-October release, puts it, Baker and leading lady star Mikey Madison in the top contenders list. Jesse Plemons nabbed the Best Actor prize for Kinds of Kindness and while he’ll likely compete in supporting (there is no lead/supporting distinction at Cannes) elsewhere, with his blistering single scene in the A24 hit Civil War earlier this spring, a return for the previous Oscar nominee seems very possible. The body horror film The Substance, which won the screenplay honor for director Coralie Fargeat, marks a major comeback for Demi Moore, and Hollywood could follow. Payal Kapadia’s Grand Prize winner All We Imagine as Light could bring India its first IFF nomination since 2001’s Lagaan. The Seed of the Sacred Fig by Mohammad Rasoulof made headlines as the Iranian director had to flee his home country in secret after being arrested, charged and sentenced to prison, and competition president Greta Gerwig and her jury awarded the film a ‘special prize’ outside of the traditional honors but that choice felt almost obligatory, as a way to acknowledge the film and Rasoulof’s bravery but it’s clear it wasn’t a strong enough to film to break into the top awards.
Academy Awards nominations will be announced January 17, 2025 and the 97th Oscars will be held on March 2.
Let’s take a look at the main awards from Sundance, Berlin and Cannes.
Sundance
- U.S. Grand Jury Prize, Dramatic: In The Summers
- Directing Award, U.S. Dramatic: Alessandra Lacorazza for In The Summers
- U.S. Dramatic Special Jury Award for Best Ensemble: Izaac Wang, Joan Chen, Shirley Chen, and Chang Li Hua for Dìdi (弟弟)
- Waldo Salt Screenwriting Award, U.S. Dramatic: Jesse Eisenberg for A Real Pain
- World Cinema Grand Jury Prize, Dramatic: Sujo
- Directing Award, World Cinema Dramatic: Raha Amirfazli and Alireza Ghasemi for In the Land of Brothers
- World Cinema Dramatic Special Jury Award for Acting: Preeti Panigrahi for Girls Will Be Girls
- U.S. Grand Jury Prize, Documentary: Porcelain War
- World Cinema Grand Jury Prize, Documentary: A New Kind of Wilderness
- Directing Award, U.S. Documentary: Julian Brave NoiseCat and Emily Kassie for Sugarcane
- Directing Award, World Cinema Documentary: Benjamin Ree for Ibelin
- Festival Favorite Award: Daughters
- Audience Award, U.S. Dramatic: Dìdi (弟弟)
- Audience Award, U.S. Documentary: Daughters
- Audience Award, World Cinema Dramatic: Girls Will Be Girls
- Audience Award, World Cinema Documentary: Ibelin
- Audience Award, NEXT: Kneecap
Berlin
- Golden Bear for Best Film: Dahomey by Mati Diop
- Silver Bear, Grand Jury Prize: Yeohaengjaui pilyo (A Traveler’s Needs)
- Silver Bear, Jury Prize: L’Empire (The Empire)
- Silver Bear for Best Director: Nelson Carlos De Los Santos Arias for Pepe
- Silver Bear for Best Acting in a Leading Role: Sebastian Stan for A Different Man
- Silver Bear for Best Acting in a Supporting Role: Emily Watson for Small Things Like These
- Silver Bear for Best Screenplay: Matthias Glasner for Dying
Cannes
- Palme d’Or: Anora by Sean Baker
- Grand Prize: All We Imagine as Light by Payal Kapadia
- Jury Prize: Emilia Pérez by Jacques Audiard
- Director: Miguel Gomes for Grand Tour
- Actor: Jesse Plemons for Kinds of Kindness
- Actress: Karla Sofía Gascón, Zoe Saldaña, Selena Gomez and Adriana Paz for Emilia Pérez
- Screenplay: The Substance by Coralie Fargeat
- Special Prize: The Seed of the Sacred Fig by Mohammad Rasoulof
Looking at what’s been seen, what’s to come and a year of some significant box office failures (especially compared to last summer’s monster hits), all eyes will be on Venice, Telluride and Toronto as well as seeing if anything can break through with enough box office gold to land a spot in Best Picture.
Here are my 2025 Oscar predictions in Best Picture and Best Director for June.
BEST PICTURE
- 1. Conclave (Focus Features) – 11/8
- 2. Anora (NEON) – 10/18
- 3. Dune Part II (Warner Bros) – 3/1
- 4. Emilia Pérez (Netflix) – date TBA
- 5. Blitz (Apple Original Films) – date TBA
- 6. Sing Sing (A24) – 7/12
- 7. Nickel Boys (Amazon MGM) – 10/25
- 8. Queer (TBA) – date TBA
- 9. A Real Pain (Searchlight Pictures) – 10/18
- 10. We Live in Time (A24) – 10/11
Next up: Challengers (Amazon MGM) – 4/26, The End (NEON) – date TBA, Gladiator II (Paramount Pictures) – 11/22, Hard Truths (Bleecker Street) – 10/18, Hedda (Amazon MGM) – date TBA, Joker: Folie à Deux (Warner Bros) – 10/4, Juror #2 (Warner Bros) – date TBA, Kinds of Kindness (Searchlight Pictures) – 6/28, Maria (TBA) – date TBA, Nightbitch (Searchlight Pictures) – 12/6, The Piano Lesson (Netflix), The Room Next Door (Sony Pictures Classics) – date TBA, Wicked Part I (Universal Pictures) – 11/27
Other contenders: The Actor (NEON) – date TBA, All We Imagine As Light (Janus/Sideshow) – date TBA, Bird (MUBI), Civil War (A24) – 4/12, Dìdi (Focus Features) – 7/26, A Different Man (A24) – 9/20, Evil Does Not Exist (Sideshow) – 5/3, The Fire Inside (Amazon MGM) – 12/25, His Three Daughters (Netflix) – date TBA, Hit Man (Netflix) – 6/7, Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1 (Warner Bros) – 6/26, Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 2 (Warner Bros) – 8/16, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (Warner Bros) – 5/24, Megalopolis (Lionsgate) – 9/27, Nosferatu (Focus Features) – 12/25, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (NEON) – date TBA, Small Things Like This (Lionsgate) – date TBA, The Substance (MUBI) – date TBA, Ustoppable (Amazon MGM) – date TBA
Will it be out in 2024?: The Apprentice (TBA), Grand Tour (TBA) – date TBA, High and Low (Apple Original Films), The History of Sound (TBA), SNL 1975 (Sony Pictures)
BEST DIRECTOR
- 1. Edward Berger – Conclave (Focus Features)
- 2. Sean Baker – Anora (NEON)
- 3. Denis Villeneuve – Dune Part II (Warner Bros)
- 4. Jacques Audiard – Emilia Pérez (Netflix)
- 5. Steve McQueen – Blitz (Apple Original Films)
- 6. Luca Guadagnino – Queer (TBA)
- 7. RaMell Ross – Nickel Boys (Amazon MGM)
- 8. Ridley Scott – Gladiator II (Paramount Pictures)
- 9. Todd Phillips – Joker: Folie à Deux (Warner Bros)
- 10. John Crowley – We Live in Time (A24)
Next up: Luca Guadagnino – Challengers (Amazon MGM), Payal Kapadia – All We Imagine as Light (NEON), Nia DaCosta – Hedda (Amazon MGM), Clint Eastwood – Juror#2 (Warner Bros), Yorgos Lanthimos – Kind of Kindness (Searchlight Pictures), Pablo Larraín – Maria (TBA), Marielle Heller – Nightbitch (Searchlight Pictures), Malcolm Washington – The Piano Lesson (Netflix), Jesse Eisenberg – A Real Pain (Searchlight Pictures), Pedro Almodóvar – The Room Next Door (Sony Pictures Classics), Mohammad Rasoulof – The Seed and the Fig (TBA), Greg Kwedar – Sing Sing (A24), Joshua Oppenheimer – The End (NEON), John M. Chu – Wicked Part I (Warner Bros)
Other contenders: Payal Kapadia – All We Imagine As Light (Janus/Sideshow), Andrea Arnold – Bird (MUBI), Sean Wang – Dìdi (Focus Features), Ryusuke Hamaguchi – Evil Does Not Exist (Janus/Sideshow), Rachel Morrison – The Fire Inside (Amazon MGM), George Miller – Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (Warner Bros), Richard Linklater – Hit Man (Netflix), Kevin Costner – Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter I, Mike Leigh – Hard Truths (Bleecker Street), Azazel Jacobs – His Three Daughters (Netflix), Francis Ford Coppola – Megalopolis (TBA)
Will it be out in 2024?: Ali Abbasi – The Apprentice (TBA), Miguel Gomes – Grand Tour (TBA), Spike Lee – High and Low (Apple Original Films), Oliver Hermanus – The History of Sound (TBA), Jason Reitman – SNL 1975 (Sony Pictures)
He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Hollywood Critics Association (HCA) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.
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