2025 Oscar Predictions: Introducing ‘The Awards Alchemist’ and a Closer Look at the Animated Feature Oscar Race

As we head into November, the awards season is beginning to heat up. The Gothams have made their announcements, and soon we’ll hear from the British Independent Film Awards (BIFA) and the European Film Awards (EFA). By the end of the month, voting for the Golden Globe nominations will commence. A consensus is starting to form.

But before we dive deeper into the awards race, let’s address an important change. With my transition to AwardsWatch, I’ve decided to rebrand my monthly article. Goodbye to Good As Gold; hello to The Awards Alchemist – a nod to the science and analytics behind Oscar predictions, inspired by the ancient Egyptian and Greek practices of alchemy that sought to turn base metals into gold. I’m excited to explore the race with all of you and appreciate your thoughts along the way.

Now, let’s switch gears back to awards. Typically, I focus on the Best Picture race, but this time I want to shine a light on a category that often flies under the radar: Animated Feature. In October, I caught up with several contenders in this rather loaded field.

Two films stand out as frontrunners: Disney/Pixar’s Inside Out 2 and Universal/DreamWorks Animation’s The Wild Robot. I was able to catch Inside Out 2 at the Nantucket Film Festival in June, and despite my mixed feelings about the original, the sequel captivated me. It offers a genuine and poignant exploration of a teenage mind grappling with emotions like anxiety and envy – an experience I found relatable as a father of two teens.

The Wild Robot, meanwhile, presents a heartwarming story about unexpected motherhood, climate change, and the intersection of nature and technology. Featuring Lupita Nyong’o as the voice of Roz, an AI robot who must reprogram herself to take on the enormous challenge of fostering the baby bird, The Wild Robot is a rather touching tale. Its original score by Kris Bowers and the song “Kiss the Sky” by Maren Morris also position it for nominations beyond Animation.

Both films boast impressive voice casts. Inside Out 2 includes Amy Poehler, Maya Hawke, Phyllis Smith, Lewis Black, and others, while The Wild Robot features Nyong’o alongside Pedro Pascal, Kit Connor, Catherine O’Hara, Mark Hamill, and Bill Nighy.

These two are as close to a lock as you can get for a nomination in Animated Feature. Inside Out 2 would mark the 13th sequel nominated in this category, adding to Pixar’s impressive record of 19 nominations since the category’s inception in 2001. If it wins, it would bring Pixar’s total to 12 Oscars in Animated Feature.

The Wild Robot would be the 15th nominee from DreamWorks Animation, potentially joining Shrek (2001) and Wallace & Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit (2005) as the studio’s third winner.

Speaking of Wallace & Gromit, they return with Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, a stop-motion claymation under Netflix’s banner. This latest installment retains the clever charm fans expect, making it a likely nominee.

Another Netflix contender, That Christmas, directed by Simon Otto and co-written by Richard Curtis, has truly captured my heart. This feel-good family film draws inspiration from Curtis’ beloved children’s books and showcases his signature storytelling flair, known from classics like Four Weddings and a Funeral, Notting Hill, and Love Actually. Otto describes the film as “a story about change, family, and the generational divides that emerge during traditional family gatherings.” With its heartfelt themes and charming narrative, That Christmas is destined to become a holiday classic.

Also noteworthy from Netflix is Ultraman: Rising, co-directed by Shannon Tindle and John Aoshima. Tindle, who co-wrote Kubo and the Two Strings, has created an animation style that merges anime aesthetics with realism, honoring classic Ultraman themes. One of my favorites among the animated contenders, this is a film that deserves more attention than it has received.

Focus Features’ Piece by Piece tells Pharrell Williams’ story through LEGO animation. I was charmed by its music, vibrant energy, and heartfelt narrative at its Telluride premiere.

IFC Films is distributing Memoir of a Snail, which employs stop-motion animation. I saw Memoir at Middleburg, and despite heavier themes, I found it to be a life-affirming tale that should pull on the strings of Academy members’ hearts.

I have yet to see Flow, promoted by Sideshow/Janus Films. Flow, the official entry for International Feature for Latvia, hopes to pull off two-thirds of what Denmark’s Flee did in 2021 when it was nominated for Animated, International, and Documentary Feature Oscars.

The animated film I’m most eager to see is Warner Bros.’ The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim. As a Middle-earth enthusiast, I can’t wait to see the legend of King Helm Hammerhand come to life. Bryan Cox voices the titular character, and the story unfolds 183 years before The Fellowship of the Ring. Miranda Otto reprises her role as Eowyn, narrating the tale. Warner Bros recently shared a preview of the Paris Paloma tune for the film, “The Rider,” which could be a contender in the Original Song category.

As of now, these are your strongest contenders for Academy Award consideration. However, several films could disrupt the race, including Disney’s upcoming Moana 2, Illumination’s Despicable Me 4, Paramount’s Transformers One (the best Transformers movie ever made), Netflix’s Spellbound, and Ketchup Entertainment’s The Day The Earth Blew Up: A Looney Tunes Movie.

One thing is clear: this is shaping up to be one of the most competitive Animated Feature races in years. With so many strong contenders, it’s possible that a major player could miss the final cut. The next few months will be an exciting puzzle to piece together.

Current Predictions for Animated Feature

On the Radar

1. Piece by Piece (Focus Features)
2. Flow (Janus Films)
3. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim (Warner Bros)
4. Transformers One (Paramount Pictures)
5. That Christmas (Netflix)
6. Ultraman: Rising (Netflix)
7. The Day the Earth Blew Up: A Looney Tunes Movie (Ketchup Entertainment)

Let’s wrap up this debut edition of The Awards Alchemist with a brief look at the Best Picture race, which is also starting to take shape. Currently, we can categorize the contenders into three groups:

The Frontrunners

There are currently 33 experts over at Gold Derby, of which I am proud to be one. All but two pundits have updated their predictions since October 6. This group of films currently has at least twenty experts (out of 31) predicting the movie to be a Best Picture nominee (as of 11/1).

• Anora, Emilia Pérez, and The Brutalist (all 31 pundits are predicting)
• Conclave (29 predictions)
• Dune: Part Two (28 predictions)
• Sing Sing (26 predictions)
• Gladiator II (22 predictions)
• September 5 (21 predictions)

This sets up a strong consensus, leaving two spots likely filled by contenders from the next category.

The Challengers

• A Real Pain (17 predictions)
• Blitz (16 predictions)
• Nickel Boys (15 predictions)
• Wicked (12 predictions)
• A Complete Unknown (10 predictions)
• The Piano Lesson (7 predictions)

As more viewers see September 5 and A Real Pain, I expect them to gain traction. This group contains significant wild cards; Wicked could perform well commercially, leading to nominations in technical categories, while A Complete Unknown might position Timothée Chalamet for a Best Actor win.

As you round out your field of ten, this is likely the group you are torn picking between. I think as more people see September 5 and A Real Pain they might see a spike in consideration. This group contains some of the biggest X-factors of the season. Wicked could make a LOT of money, and with it, some citations from the crafts guilds – Costume, Makeup and Hairstyling, Art Directors, to name a few – and perhaps even the Producers Guild. A Complete Unknown could make Timothée Chalamet an Oscar-winner, which is where I currently rank him in my Best Actor predictions. If you are with me there, you will want to include the Bob Dylan biopic in your rankings. Going back to the inception of the preferential ballot in 2009, only two winners for Best Actor did not have their films show up in the Best Picture list – Jeff Bridges (Crazy Heart; 2009) and Brendan Fraser (The Whale; 2022). That’s an 87% hit rate.

The Outliers

• The Wild Robot (5 predictions)
• Nosferatu (4 predictions)
• The Piano Lesson and The Substance (3 predictions)
• The Room Next Door, Queer, Challengers, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, and All We Imagine As Light (2 predictions each)

And those with one vote each: Hard Truths, The Apprentice, Didi, The Hit Man, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Better Man, and Nightbitch.

While these films currently seem like longshots, external factors—such as the upcoming U.S. Presidential Election and ongoing industry dynamics – could shift the landscape in their favor. “A chip and a chair,” as we say in the poker world. That’s all you need to be in the race.

Here’s where I have it heading into November. You can find my full slate of predictions over at GoldDerby. You can find predictions from AwardsWatch Editor-In-Chief Erik Anderson here.

On the Radar

1. Sing Sing (A24)
2. Blitz (Apple Original Films)
3. Saturday Night (Sony Pictures)
4. Nickel Boys (Amazon MGM/Orion) – Gothams
5. The Piano Lesson (Netflix)
6. The Room Next Door (Sony Pictures Classics) – Venice
7. The Apprentice (Briarcliff Entertainment) – Cannes
8. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (Neon) – Cannes
9. Hard Truths (Bleecker Street)
10. Juror No. 2 (Warner Bros)
11. Babygirl (A24) – Gothams
12. A Different Man (A24) – Gothams
13. Challengers (Amazon/MGM) – Gothams

On the Radar

1. Denis Villeneuve (Dune: Part Two)
2. RaMell Ross (Nickel Boys) – Gotham
3. Mohammad Rasoulof (The Seed of the Sacred Fig)
4. James Mangold (A Complete Unknown)
5. Tim Fehlbaum (September 5)
6. Jon M. Chu (Wicked)
7. Greg Kwedar (Sing Sing)
8. Jesse Eisenberg (A Real Pain)
9. Pedro Almodóvar (The Room Next Door)
10. Jason Reitman (Saturday Night)

On the Radar

1. Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice)
2. Daniel Craig (Queer)
3. John David Washington (The Piano Lesson)
4. Jesse Eisenberg (A Real Pain)
5. Joaquin Phoenix (Joker: Folie a Deux)

On the Radar

1. Demi Moore (The Substance) – Gothams
2. Saoirse Ronan (The Outrun) – Gothams
3. Tilda Swinton (The Room Next Door)
4. Amy Adams (Nightbitch)
5. Cynthia Erivo (Wicked)

On the Radar

1. Stanley Tucci (Conclave)
2. Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice)
3. Yura Borisov (Anora) – Gotham
4. Peter Sarsgaard (September 5)
5. Ray Fisher (The Piano Lesson)

On the Radar

1. Selena Gomez (Emilia Perez) – Cannes
2. Carrie Coon (His Three Daughters)
3. Felicity Jones (The Brutalist)
4. Natasha Lyonne (His Three Daughters) – Gotham
5. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (Nickel Boys)

On the Radar

1. The Piano Lesson
2. The Room Next Door
3. Gladiator II
4. A Complete Unknown
5. Inside Out 2

On the Radar

1. Saturday Night
2. Blitz
3. The Seed of the Sacred Fig
4. Hard Truths
5. His Three Daughters – Gotham

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Mark Johnson

Mark Johnson has been a prominent voice in film coverage and the Oscar race since 2009. He launched his career with his own website, Award Contenders, before joining forces with Clayton Davis at Awards Circuit from 2011 to 2020. After continuing his insightful work at Awards Daily from 2020 to 2024, Mark now contributes to both The Contending and AwardsWatch. His renowned Oscar predictions column, The Awards Alchemist (formerly Good As Gold), has solidified his reputation in the industry. A member of the Critics Choice Association, Mark regularly attends major film festivals, including Telluride, Nantucket, and Middleburg, offering in-depth analysis and predictions throughout awards season.

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