2025 Oscar Predictions: SUPPORTING ACTOR (December)
Guy Pearce (The Brutalist) and Yura Borisov (Anora) have begun building their precursor stash and winning some critics’ prizes along the way. Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing) is just behind them, coming in with a Gotham win.
Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain) has fully separated himself from the pack as the clear frontrunner, hitting all precursors so far and dominating critics wins including National Board of Review, Los Angeles and New York, and looking like he’s on his way to a season-long sweep.
Denzel Washington (Gladiator II) and Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown) are probably fighting for that 5th spot right now, both snagging Critics Choice and Golden Globe nominations and each with one critics win so far (Las Vegas for Washington, Boston for Norton). They also both represent the most likely previous nominees/winners to return, with Stanley Tucci (Conclave) peering in from the outside.
The BAFTA longlists drop on January 3 with nominations on January 15 and right in between there the Screen Actors Guild will have their say with nominations on January 8. By then we’ll also have the lion’s share of individual critics’ group having chimed in with their winners in acting categories, among others.
Academy Award nominations will be announced January 17, 2025 and the 97th Oscars will be held on March 2.
Here are my 2025 Oscar predictions in Supporting Actor for December.
| 1. Kieran Culkin – A Real Pain (Searchlight Pictures) | CCA, Gotham, GG |
| 2. Yura Borisov – Anora (NEON) | CCA, Gotham, GG |
| 3. Guy Pearce – The Brutalist (A24) | CCA, Gotham, GG |
| 4. Clarence Maclin – Sing Sing (A24) | CCA, Gotham |
| 5. Denzel Washington – Gladiator II (Paramount Pictures) | CCA, GG |
| 6. Edward Norton – A Complete Unknown (Searchlight Pictures) | CCA, GG |
| 7. Stanley Tucci – Conclave (Focus Features) | |
| 8. Jeremy Strong – The Apprentice (Briarcliff Entertainment) | GG |
| 9. Adam Pearson – A Different Man (A24) | Gotham |
| 10. Josh O’Connor – Challengers (Amazon MGM) |
Next up (alphabetical):
| Jonathan Bailey – Wicked Part I (Universal Pictures) | |
| Austin Butler – Dune Part II (Warner Bros) | |
| Brian Tyree Henry – The Fire Inside (Amazon MGM) | |
| John Lithgow – Conclave (Focus Features) | |
| Peter Sarsgaard – September 5 (Paramount Pictures) |
Other contenders: Harris Dickinson – Babygirl (A24), Mark Eydelshteyn – Anora (NEON), Chris Hemsworth – Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (Warner Bros), Cooper Hoffman – Saturday Night (Sony Pictures), Samuel L. Jackson – The Piano Lesson (Netflix), John Magaro – September 5 (Paramount Pictures), Drew Starkey – Queer (A24), Brandon Wilson – Nickel Boys (Amazon MGM)
He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Critics Choice Association (CCA), San Francisco Bay Area Film Critics Circle (SFBAFCC) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.
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