2025 Oscar Predictions: SUPPORTING ACTOR (June)

Kieran Culkin may be adding an Oscar to his Emmy win last season with one Sundance’s biggest films, Searchlight Pictures’ A Real Pain, which was written, directed and co-stars Jesse Eisenberg. In the film, Eisenberg and Culkin play slightly estranged cousins who convene to memorialize their grandmother’s passing with a trip to Poland that includes visiting the last city she lived before coming to America and a nearby concentration camp with a tour group. If that all sounds very dark, it is; but it’s also scathingly funny. Culkin’s Benji doesn’t stray too far from his Roman on Succession; petulant, a know-it-all, spiky at almost all times. But it works very much in his favor here. While Eisenberg won the Waldo Salt Screenwriting Award for the film at Sundance this year, and gives a searing performance himself, it’s Culkin who viewers and voters will walk away thinking about.

Samuel L. Jackson hasn’t been Oscar-nominated since 1994’s Pulp Fiction, still his only nomination ever and for a career probably more prolific than any working actor alive today. He also happens to be the Guinness Book of World Records holder as the actor with the highest number of $100M grossing films (45) and the overall box office king between the Star Wars, Incredibles, Jurassic Park and Avengers franchises pushing his total above $12B. Now, Jackson earned an Honorary Oscar in 2021 and one could say that between being a part of these behemoth box office numbers, the sheer volume of his work and missing out on that earlier win that the Academy was honoring for these collective achievements. That is after all what most Honorary Oscars do, it’s part of their purpose. The Piano Lesson follows Fences and Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom in Denzel Washington’s producorial commitment to bring the plays of August Wilson to the big screen and both of those films were strong Oscar players with Viola Davis earning an Academy Award in supporting actress for Fences, a role she won a lead Tony Award for years earlier. Jackson was Tony-nominated for his role as Doaker Charles in The Piano Lesson in 2023 but lost to Brandon Uranowitz for Leopoldstadt. No pressure, but the feature film version is directed by Malcolm Washington, Denzel’s son, and also stars his brother John David Washington, who also starred in the Broadway production. Netflix will release The Piano Lesson later this year and I expect a healthy fall festival run for the film.

But you’ll have to look no further for immediate competition than the elder Washington himself, for his role in Gladiator II, the long-awaited sequel to the 2000 Best Picture winner. A two-time Oscar winner, it’s impossible count Washington out as a possible nominee in almost any year. Looking at another contender with longevity and respect within the industry is John Lithgow for the upcoming film Conclave. Lithgow has two Oscar nominations, six Emmys, three Screen Actors Guild awards, two Tony Awards, two Golden Globe wins and four Grammy nominations. If the papal thriller hits with audiences and voters, he’s in the mix in a big way. Swinging all the way to the other side, to someone with no name recognition is Clarence Maclin from the prison drama Sing Sing, which stars Best Actor contender Colman Domingo. Maclin, a former inmate himself and who received a story by credit for the film, plays Divine Eye, the prison’s most notorious drug dealer but who also has a passion to join Domingo’s Divine G as a part of the prison theatre troupe. It’s one of those breakout performances, the kind we see every year that are lifted above the fold. With a mid-July release from A24, critics will need to do just that, keep Maclin lifted throughout the fall to keep his name in the conversation but if he can stay there he’s as big a threat as anyone else.

Academy Awards nominations will be announced January 17, 2025 and the 97th Oscars will be held on March 2.

Here are my 2025 Oscar predictions in Supporting Actor for June.

1. Samuel L. Jackson – The Piano Lesson (Netflix)
2. Kieran Culkin – A Real Pain (Searchlight Pictures)
3. John Lithgow – Conclave (Focus Features)
4. Clarence Maclin – Sing Sing (A24)
5. Denzel Washington – Gladiator II (Paramount Pictures)
6. Drew Starkey – Queer (TBA)
7. Stephen Graham – Blitz (Apple Original Films)
8. Adam Pearson – A Different Man (A24)
9. Austin Butler – Dune Part II (Warner Bros)
10. Jharrel Jerome – Unstoppable (Amazon MGM)

Next up: Yuri Borisov – Anora (NEON), Willem Dafoe – Kinds of Kindness (Searchlight Pictures), Anders Danielsen Lie – The Summer Book (TBA), Harris Dickinson – Blitz (Apple Original Films), Mark Edelstein – Anora (NEON), Brian Tyree Henry – The Fire Inside (Amazon MGM), Hamish Linklater – Nickel Boys (Amazon MGM), Scoot McNairy – Nightbitch, Paul Raci – Sing Sing (A24), Stanley Tucci – Conclave (Focus Features)

Other contenders: Jonathan Bailey – Wicked Part I (Universal Pictures), Tom Bateman – Hedda (Amazon MGM), Giancarlo Esposito – Megalopolis (Lionsgate), Ben Foster – Long Day’s Journey Into Night (MGM), Tom Hardy – The Bikeriders (Focus Features), Chris Hemsworth – Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (Warner Bros), George MacKay – The End (NEON), Jesse Plemons – Civil War (A24), John Turturro – The Room Next Door (Sony Pictures Classics)

Lead or Supporting?: Demián Bichir – Without Blood (Fremantle), Mike Faist – Challengers (Amazon MGM), Jharrel Jerome – Unstoppable (Amazon MGM), Barry Keoghan – Bird (MUBI), Josh O’Connor – Challengers (Amazon MGM),  Jesse Plemons – Kinds of Kindness (Searchlight Pictures)

Will it be out in 2024?: Nicholas Braun/Gabriel LaBelle/Dylan O’Brien/LaMorne Morris/J.K. Simmons/Anyone – SNL 1975 (Sony Pictures), George Clooney – Jay Kelly (Netflix), Jeremy Strong – The Apprentice (TBA), Jeffrey Wright – High and Low (Apple Original Films)