2025 Oscar Predictions: SUPPORTING ACTOR (October)

A consistently healthy category full of possibilities but with now having seen all performances in my current top 10 save one (Ed Norton in A Complete Unknown, which still isn’t finished and hasn’t started screening for anyone as of this writing), the top tier contenders are feeling pretty solid.

With all actors in September 5 going supporting, I’ve swapped out John Magaro for Peter Sarsgaard, who I had a possible lead contender before the announcement, and Paramount itself appears to be prioritizing Sarsgaard over Magaro. Another film with an abundance of supporting actors that could fill out this entire category is Anora. Even though Mark Eydelshteyn’s Ivan is outrageous and hilarious, he largely disappears for the film’s midsection, making way for the equally funny Karren Karagulian and Vache Tovmasyan but I think it’s Yura Borisov’s quiet and tender goon Igor that will connect with voters, especially since he features so heavily in the film’s second half and spends all of his screen time with major Best Actress contender Mikey Madison.

Here are my 2025 Oscar predictions in Supporting Actor for October.

1. Denzel Washington – Gladiator II (Paramount Pictures)
2. Kieran Culkin – A Real Pain (Searchlight Pictures)
3. Clarence Maclin – Sing Sing (A24)
4. Stanley Tucci – Conclave (Focus Features)
5. Guy Pearce – The Brutalist (A24)
6. Edward Norton – A Complete Unknown (Searchlight Pictures)
7. Yura Borisov – Anora (NEON)
8. John Lithgow – Conclave (Focus Features)
9. Peter Sarsgaard – September 5 (Paramount Pictures)
10. Samuel L. Jackson – The Piano Lesson (Netflix)

Next up: Austin Butler – Dune Part II (Warner Bros), Harris Dickinson – Babygirl (A24), Mark Eydelshteyn – Anora (NEON), Mike Faist – Challengers (Amazon MGM), Ray Fisher – The Piano Lesson (Netflix), Fred Hechinger – Gladiator II (Paramount Pictures), Brian Tyree Henry – The Fire Inside (Amazon MGM), Cooper Hoffman – Saturday Night (Sony Pictures), John Magaro – September 5 (Paramount Pictures), Josh O’Connor – Challengers (Amazon MGM), Adam Pearson – A Different Man (A24), Drew Starkey – Queer (A24), Jeremy Strong – The Apprentice (Briarcliff Entertainment), John Turturro – The Room Next Door (Sony Pictures Classics), Brandon Wilson – Nickel Boys (Amazon MGM)

Other contenders: Jonathan Bailey – Wicked Part I (Universal Pictures), Antonio Banderas – Babygirl (A24), Willem Dafoe – Kinds of Kindness (Searchlight Pictures), Tom Hardy – The Bikeriders (Focus Features), Chris Hemsworth – Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (Warner Bros), George MacKay – The End (NEON), Scoot McNairy – Nightbitch (Searchlight Pictures), Dylan O’Brien – Saturday Night (Sony Pictures), Jesse Plemons – Civil War (A24), Joseph Quinn – Gladiator II (Paramount Pictures), Paul Raci – Sing Sing (A24), Cory Michael Smith – Saturday Night (Sony Pictures)

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Erik Anderson

Erik Anderson is the founder/owner and Editor-in-Chief of AwardsWatch and has always loved all things Oscar, having watched the Academy Awards since he was in single digits; making lists, rankings and predictions throughout the show. This led him down the path to obsessing about awards. Much later, he found himself in film school and the film forums of GoldDerby, and then migrated over to the former Oscarwatch (now AwardsDaily), before breaking off to create AwardsWatch in 2013.

He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Hollywood Critics Association (HCA) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.

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