2025 Oscar Predictions: SUPPORTING ACTRESS (November)
Dueling divas could be the narrative of awards season in supporting actress as child stars turned music superstars Selena Gomez and Ariana Grande both find themselves as possible Oscar contenders for the first time.
For Gomez, the multi-Emmy-nominated actor and producer for her hit series Only Murders in the Building already has a Best Actress win under her belt for Emilia Pérez at Cannes earlier this summer. She shares that win with her three female co-stars and her biggest battle to the top five will come from within as Zoe Saldaña, who still holds court. But while it may seem competitive on the surface, the solid nature of Saldaña’s position and the co-lead nature of her role could actually prove to be less competitive for Gomez. Think of it like Catherine Zeta-Jones and Queen Latifah in Chicago (I guess that predicates an Emilia Pérez Best Picture win, not impossible), Meryl Streep and Jane Alexander in Kramer vs. Kramer (another BP winner, am I making my case better or worse?), Amy Adams and Viola Davis in Doubt, or several more examples of dual supporting actress nominations that include one of them being significantly more screen time than the other.
Grammy award winner Grande (or Grande-Butera, as she’s officially credited in Wicked) has barely scratched the surface of an acting career; her first and only previous role in a major motion picture was her brief but hilarious cameo in 2021’s Don’t Look Up, playing a snooty diva pop star. But, through television appearances on Saturday Night Live and Scream Queens, it seems she knows her strengths lie not just in her soaring vocals but also in her comedic timing. That timing serves her well in Wicked, playing Glinda with both aloofness and sympathy and always funny, landing laugh after laugh, but hitting those emotional beats.
Here are my 2025 Oscar predictions in Supporting Actress for November.
| 1. Zoe Saldaña – Emilia Pérez (Netflix) | Cannes (Best Actress) |
| 2. Danielle Deadwyler – The Piano Lesson (Netflix) | Gotham |
| 3. Isabella Rossellini – Conclave (Focus Features) | |
| 4. Felicity Jones – The Brutalist (A24) | |
| 5. Saoirse Ronan – Blitz (Apple Original Films) |
| 6. Selena Gomez – Emilia Pérez (Netflix) | Cannes (Best Actress) |
| 7. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor – Nickel Boys (Amazon MGM) | |
| 8. Ariana Grande-Butera – Wicked Part I (Universal Pictures) | |
| 9. Margaret Qualley – The Substance (MUBI) | |
| 10. Joan Chen – Dìdi (Focus Features) |
Next up: Michelle Austin – Hard Truths (Bleecker Street), Maria Bakalova – The Apprentice (Briarcliff Entertainment), Monica Barbaro – A Complete Unknown (Searchlight Pictures), Leonie Benesch – September 5 (Paramount Pictures), Toni Collette – Juror #2 (Warner Bros), Jamie Lee Curtis – The Last Showgirl (Roadside Attractions), Elle Fanning – A Complete Unknown (Searchlight Pictures), Jennifer Lopez – Unstoppable (Amazon MGM), Natasha Lyonne – His Three Daughters (Netflix) – Gotham
Other contenders: Glenn Close – The Deliverance (Netflix), Carrie Coon – His Three Daughters (Netflix), Jennifer Grey – A Real Pain (Searchlight Pictures), Moses Ingram – The End (NEON), Carol Kane – Between the Temples (Sony Pictures Classics), Lady Gaga – Joker: Folie à Deux (Warner Bros), Lashana Lynch – Bob Marley: One Love (Paramount Pictures), Lesley Manville – Queer (A24), Connie Nielsen – Gladiator II (Paramount Pictures), Katy O’Brian – Love Lies Bleeding (A24) – Gotham, Elizabeth Olsen – His Three Daughters (Netflix), Adriana Paz – Emilia Pérez (Netflix) – Cannes Best Actress, Renate Reinsve – A Different Man (A24), Rachel Sennott – Saturday Night (Sony Pictures), Emily Watson – Small Things Happen (Lionsgate)
He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Hollywood Critics Association (HCA) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.
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