2025 Oscar Predictions: SUPPORTING ACTRESS (October)
With only a handful of films yet to be screened in any public way (Wicked, A Complete Unknown, Juror #2) and seeing at least one in release film on the rise (The Substance), it’s getting a little bit easier to see the shape of the supporting actress race.
As competitive as Best Actress, there’s not a whole lot of change in my top 10 from last month outside of Margaret Qualley being able to capitalize on the success of The Substance and being so inextricably tied to star Demi Moore, both figuratively and literally. She could find herself a perfect coattail nomination (complimentary) without having to run parallel to Moore in the precursor race (think Jessie Buckley in The Lost Daughter). I’m not ready to pop her into the top 5 just yet but she’s well-connected and has worked with several high-profile directors and is an Emmy-nominated actress in her own right.
Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez), Danielle Deadwyler (The Piano Lesson) and Felicity Jones (The Brutalist) just get stronger by the day, which keeps the next two spots wide open with 7-10 contenders all with a good case to get in, either on the sole strength of their performance or from the broad support of their film overall. But campaigns have begun in earnest, with the recent Academy Museum Gala this last weekend seeing several show up to kick that off, namely, Saldaña, Deadwyler, Ronan, Joan Chen, Qualley, Selena Gomez, Ariana Grande and more.
The race is on.
Here are my 2025 Oscar predictions in Supporting Actress for October.
- Zoe Saldaña – Emilia Pérez (Netflix)
- Danielle Deadwyler – The Piano Lesson (Netflix)
- Felicity Jones – The Brutalist (A24)
- Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor – Nickel Boys (Amazon MGM)
- Saoirse Ronan – Blitz (Apple Original Films)
- Isabella Rossellini – Conclave (Focus Features)
- Joan Chen – Dìdi (Focus Features)
- Margaret Qualley – The Substance (MUBI)
- Selena Gomez – Emilia Pérez (Netflix)
- Leonie Benesch – September 5 (Paramount Pictures)
Next up: Michelle Austin – Hard Truths (Bleecker Street), Maria Bakalova – The Apprentice (Briarcliff Entertainment), Monica Barbaro – A Complete Unknown (Searchlight Pictures), Toni Collette – Juror #2 (Warner Bros), Jamie Lee Curtis – The Last Showgirl (Roadside Attractions), Elle Fanning – A Complete Unknown (Searchlight Pictures), Ariana Grande – Wicked Part I (Universal Pictures), Jennifer Lopez – Unstoppable (Amazon MGM), Natasha Lyonne – His Three Daughters (Netflix)
Other contenders: Glenn Close – The Deliverance (Netflix), Carrie Coon – His Three Daughters (Netflix), Dolly De Leon – Between the Temples (Sony Pictures Classics), Jennifer Grey – A Real Pain (Searchlight Pictures), Moses Ingram – The End (NEON), Lady Gaga – Joker: Folie à Deux (Warner Bros), Lesley Manville – Queer (A24), Fernanda Montenegro – I’m Still Here (Sony Pictures Classics), Connie Nielsen – Gladiator II (Paramount Pictures), Elizabeth Olsen – His Three Daughters (Netflix), Adriana Paz – Emilia Pérez (Netflix), Renate Reinsve – A Different Man (A24), Rachel Sennott – Saturday Night (Sony Pictures), Emily Watson – Small Things Happen (Lionsgate), Robin Wright – Here (Sony Pictures/Columbia Pictures), Michelle Yeoh – Wicked Part I (Universal Pictures)
He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Hollywood Critics Association (HCA) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.
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