2025 Oscar Predictions: The Awards Alchemist’s Final Forecast in All 23 Categories – Cannes You Feel the Love Tonight?

“Alchemy is a kind of philosophy: a kind of thinking that leads to a way of understanding” – Marcel Duchamp

Alchemy goes beyond the simple idea of turning lead into gold; it is symbolic for personal and intellectual transformation. Alchemists use a mindset that encourages a deeper grasp of the world, whether through self-exploration, uncovering universal truths, or discovering something new. The journey itself – seeking knowledge and growth – holds as much value as the outcome.

And so it is with predicting an awards season, especially one as challenging as this one has seemed. I’ve been predicting the Oscars online since 2009 – after quieter years in small circles since 1997 – and this race is the toughest I’ve ever faced. 

This weekend, the film year will finally come to an end. Let’s examine how we arrived at this moment. To navigate our future journeys, we must look back and study this one to see how the game has changed and evolved.

For many years, the awards race truly began with Telluride and Venice. The first half of the year felt like an extended prologue, a waiting game until the fall festival season kicked off. But something shifted around 2019, the year of Parasite. That’s when Cannes officially stopped being just a launching pad for the film year and became a catalyst for the Oscar race.

Cannes has always held significance – artistic prestige, global visibility, and industry networking, to name a few of the strong values Cannes presented. But recently, its role has changed. It’s no longer just a marketplace where films seek distribution under an international spotlight. It has transformed into a major bellwether for Oscar success. Alchemy!

Until 2019, The Lost Weekend (1945) and Marty (1955) were the only Palme d’Or winners to go the distance and win Best Picture at the Oscars. Then Parasite shattered that 64-year drought. Now, if the predictions hold, Anora will shorten the gap between Palme winners to just five years.

Consider this alchemy:

Four of the last five Palme d’Or winners have been nominated for Best Picture, with (possibly) two of them winning (Parasite and Anora). The previous six Palme winners (2013–2018) were completely absent from the Best Picture lineup. Before that, you have to go back to Amour (2012) and The Tree of Life (2011) for another nominee. And before them? The last Palme d’Or winner to land a Best Picture nomination was The Pianist (2002).

So, in the first 19 years of this century, only three Palme winners were nominated for Best Picture. Now, in the last five years alone, four Palme winners have made the cut.

The game has changed. It is a fascinating evolution how the festival now fits into the broader awards ecosystem. 

What is the root cause for Cannes becoming an Oscar power player? 

Several factors have contributed to Cannes’ growing influence on the awards race. Among them:

• The Expansion to Ten Best Picture Nominees – The more opportunities, the higher the probability a film has of making the cut. But this alone doesn’t explain the shift.
• The Globalization of the Academy – The international membership expansion has had a profound impact. In the last seven years, there have been 10 international directors nominated, compared to just seven in the first 40 years of the Oscars. We see this reflected in other categories as well – the majority of the 45 shortlisted short films this year are in a non-English language.
• The “Parasite Effect” – The groundbreaking success of Parasite changed the game. It proved that a Cannes winner could not only compete but win Best Picture. That success has made it easier for distributors to position Cannes films for major awards runs.
• The Academy’s Shift Toward Arthouse & Niche Films – As the Oscars move further away from mainstream, studio-driven cinema and travel deeper down the rabbit hole of auteur-driven, arthouse films, Cannes’ influence grows. Cannes has always championed these kinds of films – now the Oscars are rewarding them, too.

A modest film that emerged from the auteur-driven Cannes Film Festival, Anora wasn’t necessarily backed by the automatic Hollywood machinery. Yet, like The Little Engine That Could, it has climbed the awards season mountain, slowly but steadily, proving that it could. First the CCA. I think it can… Then the DGA. I think it can… Then the PGA. I think it… Cannes? 

With the Oscars now within reach, Anora stands alongside Parasite as a symbol of this alchemic shift – proof that Cannes is no longer just the starting line for a film’s journey. It is the road to the podium.

Let’s put a bow on the 97th Academy Awards season.

Following tradition, I’m categorizing my final predictions into tiers. A tier ranking system allows you to divide a subject in terms of best to worst, most to least, easiest to hardest – you get the point, right? In this case, we are looking at grouping the easiest races up to the most difficult to predict. I break things down into three segments: Hand Them the Oscar Now (Easy tier – aka: don’t overthink it); This Could Go Either Way (Challenging tier: clear front-runner present, but sneaky underdog exists); and Oscar Pool Winners (Expert tier: this is where you will separate yourself from your rival Oscar predictors. Many of these categories have more than two possible outcomes or no clear front-runner).

For each category, I’ll unveil my predicted winner (What/Who Will Win), what might provide an upset (What/Who Could Win), and my own personal choice, regardless of the selection being nominated or not (What/Who I Would Have Voted For). Additionally, I’ll provide insights, stats, or analysis to enrich the forecast (Stats/Analysis). 

I will make several references to key years in Oscar history that will serve to underscore the evolving dynamics of Academy voting, including pivotal changes such as the adoption of preferential voting in 2009. Another big change happened in 2000, when after years of BAFTA taking place after the Oscars, they suddenly moved in front and became a major precursor for Academy (AMPAS) results. In 2012, the Screen Actors Guild (SAG) merged with the American Federation of Television and Radio Artists (AFTRA) and became SAG-AFTRA. Another major change has been AMPAS’ initiative to diversify its membership. Per the LA Times, in January 2016, a second year of the #OscarsSoWhite firestorm led the academy to publicly announce an initiative to double the number of women and minorities in its ranks — then about 1,500 and 535, respectively — by 2020. You can read more about the Academy’s efforts to diversify their organization here, but the gist is that those who select the awards now look a little different than, say, 20 years ago. As a reminder: 2000, 2009, and 2012 are a few key dates, with recent history weighing in more than ever due to membership diversification.

Here… we… go!

Hand Them the Oscar Now (all categories are listed in order of confidence)

Production Design
What/Who Will Win: Nathan Crowley (Wicked)
What/Who Could Win: Judy Becker (The Brutalist)
What/Who I Would Have Voted For: Beatrice Brentnerova, Paul Ghirardani, and Craig Lathrop (Nosferatu)
Analysis: Wicked made a clean sweep of the ADG, SDSA, CCA, and BAFTA awards. The most recent film to win the Oscar for Production Design without claiming one of the top ADG prizes (Period, Fantasy, or Contemporary) was All Quiet on the Western Front (2022). Before that, the last to do so was Lincoln (2012). However, All Quiet was a true anomaly, as it also failed to win with SDSA, CCA, or BAFTA. 

In the preferential ballot era (2009–present), only three films have won the Oscar in this category after being shut out by those four major precursors: Lincoln, Alice in Wonderland (2010), and All Quiet on the Western Front. It’s worth noting that SDSA only began awarding honors in 2020, so Lincoln and Alice missed with just the three groups.

Though it’s a small sample size, in the four years since SDSA entered the scene, three films have swept all four major precursors – and each of them went on to win the Oscar for Production Design. Wicked looks poised to be the fourth in five years.
Stat: Since 2003 (The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King), The Shape of Water is the only Best Picture winner to also take home the Oscar for Art Direction/Production Design.

Costume Design
What/Who Will Win: Paul Tazewell (Wicked)
What/Who Could Win: Linda Muir (Nosferatu)
What/Who I Would Have Voted For: Paul Tazewell (Wicked)
Analysis: Like Production Design, Paul Tazewell (Akron’s own) swept the major precursors – CDG, BAFTA, and CCA – for his extraordinary costume designs for Wicked. In the preferential era, both CCA and BAFTA have an 80% overlap with the Oscars in this category, while CDG lags behind with just a 53% overlap (8 of the last 15 years), despite having three distinct categories to recognize – Period, Fantasy, and Contemporary.

Looking at the CDG’s 25-year history, its winners have matched the Oscar 15 times. Notably, the Period category has been the most successful Oscar predictor. This year, that honor went to Nosferatu, while Wicked took home the Fantasy prize. Of the eight CDG winners that went on to win the Oscar in the last 15 years, five came from the Period category.
Stat: In the past 10 years, this award has gone to a Best Picture contender six times – another strong indicator in Wicked‘s favor over Nosferatu.

Makeup & Hairstyling
What/Who Will Win: The Substance
What/Who Could Win: Wicked
What/Who I Would Have Voted For: A Different Man
Analysis: Since its inception in 1999, MUAH has handed out awards in 16 years, with a curious hiatus from 2004 to 2012. In those 16 ceremonies, a winner from one of its three categories – Contemporary, Period, or Special Make-up Effects – has gone on to win the Oscar 12 times.

Since MUAH’s return in 2013, only two Oscar winners for Hair and Makeup have failed to triumph there: The Eyes of Tammy Faye (2021) and Poor Things (2023). While MUAH remains a strong precursor, its recent track record is less promising, with just one match in the past three years – suggesting it may be trending in the wrong direction.

The CCA is another solid indicator, predicting five of the last seven Oscar winners, though it also missed the last two. BAFTA, on the other hand, has matched five of the last seven and is the only precursor currently on a hot streak, aligning with four of the past five winners. Notably, while both MUAH and CCA missed Poor Things, BAFTA did not.

This year, The Substance swept MUAH, CCA, and BAFTA, positioning it as the clear frontrunner. Wicked is the only other nominee with a major win at MUAH, making it the most likely challenger.
Stat: There have been 42 Oscars awarded for Best Makeup (with Hairstyling added to the category name in 2012). In that span, 11 Best Picture nominees that were also nominated for Makeup lost the latter category to a non-Best Picture nominee. However, this matchup has only occurred 23 times, highlighting how disconnected the Makeup category tends to be from the Best Picture race.

In fact, across those 42 contests, only 11 times has the eventual Best Picture winner even been nominated for Makeup. Of those, just four went on to win both Oscars: Amadeus (1984), Driving Miss Daisy (1989), Braveheart (1995), and The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King (2003).

Animated Feature
What/Who Will Win: The Wild Robot
What/Who Could Win: Flow
What/Who I Would Have Voted For: The Wild Robot
Analysis: Flow kicked off the awards season on a high note, claiming victories at both the NBR and the Golden Globes. Notably, eight of the last nine Globe winners went on to win the Oscar, even in years with tight races like The Boy and the Heron and Encanto.

Since that strong start, however, The Wild Robot has dominated. It’s racked up wins at the PGA, Annies, VES, ADG, CSA, and CCA, creating an impressive momentum that feels unstoppable. The only bump in its road came at the BAFTAs, where Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl took the top prize, in a race where many thought Flow might surprise.

Looking at the predictive power of these awards, the Annies’ top honor has forecasted the Oscar six times in the last nine years, though only twice in the last five. The CCA has aligned with the Oscar five of the last seven times, but just once in the last three. Interestingly, both the Annies and the CCA missed the same two wins that the Globes nailed.

While the PGA overlooked The Boy and the Heron last year, its recent track record remains solid, matching the Oscar winner eight of the last nine times—the same success rate as the Globes and ACE. Unfortunately, with the ACE winner announced after the Oscars, we won’t have that final clue ahead of time.
Stat: Speaking of ACE… since they began awarding Animated Feature films in 2009, only one film has won the Oscar without first receiving an ACE nomination: The Boy and the Heron (2023). The ACE winner has matched the Animated Feature Oscar-winner 13 out of 15 times – the exceptions being when The Lego Movie won ACE while the Oscar went to Big Hero Six, and when Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse took ACE while the Oscar went to The Boy and the Heron. Notably, Memoir of a Snail is the only current nominee without an ACE nomination.

Supporting Actor
What/Who Will Win: Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain)
What/Who Could Win: Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown)
What/Who I Would Have Voted For: John Magaro (September 5, not nominated)
Analysis: SAG, BAFTA, Globes, and CCA – securing that quartet makes it nearly impossible to bet against. Since 2007, ten supporting actors have swept the season, and all ten went on to win the Oscar. Culkin will make it eleven, and will be the first in over a decade to win this category without his film being nominated for Best Picture.
Stat: Fifteen of the last 17 SAG winners in this category went on to win the Oscar. The only two mismatches in that span were in 2012, when Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln) won SAG but lost the Oscar to Christoph Waltz (Django Unchained), and in 2015, when Idris Elba (Beasts of No Nation) took SAG but wasn’t even nominated for the Oscar, which went to Mark Rylance (Bridge of Spies).

Supporting Actress
What/Who Will Win: Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)
What/Who Could Win: Ariana Grande (Wicked)
What/Who I Would Have Voted For: Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown)
Analysis: Rinse, wash, repeat. Like Culkin, Saldaña holds the same quartet of SAG, BAFTA, Globes, and CCA.
Stat: Fourteen of the last 15 SAG winners in this category went on to win the Oscar, with the only exception being Regina King in 2018, who wasn’t nominated.

Visual Effects
What/Who Will Win: Dune: Part Two
What/Who Could Win: The Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
What/Who I Would Have Voted For: Dune: Part Two
Analysis: This race is essentially between Dune: Part Two – which won BAFTA and CCA – and Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, which took home the top prize at VES for Outstanding Visual Effects in an Effects-Driven Motion Picture (Photoreal Feature).

Last year, Godzilla Minus One shattered every precedent in this category. It won the Oscar despite missing nominations at BAFTA, CCA, and even the main VES category. Since at least 2000, Godzilla is the only winner to lack a BAFTA nomination for Visual Effects. The same goes for CCA, which began awarding the category in 2009. As for VES, Godzilla became just the fifth Oscar winner to miss a nomination in the top category since its inception in 2002. 

That brings us to this year, where we must weigh the significance of VES against the combo of BAFTA and CCA. Over the past decade, the VES winner has matched the Oscar only three times, and in four of the other seven years, it wasn’t even nominated. Meanwhile, CCA winners have aligned with the Oscar four times, missing a nomination only once – last year, with Godzilla. BAFTA has the strongest track record, matching with the Oscar winner seven times in the last ten years.

Another stat favoring Dune? Since 2009, there have been nine instances where a film won Best Visual Effects at both BAFTA and CCA. Eight of those nine went on to win the Oscar.

Beyond the precursors, history also leans toward Dune. It’s a Best Picture nominee, while Apes is not. Before Ex Machina’s surprise win in 2015, you’d have to go all the way back to 1970 to find the last time a non-Best Picture nominee defeated a Best Picture nominee in this category (Tora! Tora! Tora! over Patton).

One final edge for Dune: the Sound-Visual Effects connection. Twelve of the last 16 Visual Effects winners also had a Sound nomination. Dune does. Apes does not.
Stat: One of my favorite Oscar stats has always been the strong correlation between Visual Effects winners and Production Design nominees. Over the past 24 years, 20 Visual Effects winners also earned a nomination for Art Direction/Production Design. The only exceptions? Spider-Man 2 (2004), Ex Machina (2015), The Jungle Book (2016), and, of course, Godzilla Minus One.

Oh… and this year? Dune: Part Two has a Production Design nomination. Apes does not.

This Could Go Either Way

Adapted Screenplay
What/Who Will Win: Peter Straughan (Conclave)
What/Who Could Win: RaMell Ross & Joslyn Barnes (Nickel Boys)
What/Who I Would Have Voted For: Peter Straughan (Conclave)
Analysis: Straughan (Conclave) dominated this year’s Screenplay race, winning BAFTA, the Golden Globe, CCA, and the USC Scripter. The only major miss? WGA, though that was due to ineligibility under their restrictive rules. Had Conclave been in the mix, we might be looking at a full sweep. Instead, Nickel Boys capitalized on the opening, taking home the WGA award and positioning itself as the only real threat to upset on Oscar night. Among the major precursors, BAFTA currently boasts the strongest track record, aligning with the Oscar winner six times in the past seven years – Women Talking being the only exception in that stretch.
Stat: In the preferential ballot era, 110 out of 136 Best Picture nominees have also received a Screenplay nomination, an impressive 80.8% overlap.

Original Song
What/Who Will Win: “El Mal” (Emilia Pérez)
What/Who Could Win: “The Journey” (The Six Triple Eight)
What/Who I Would Have Voted For: “Kiss the Sky” (The Wild Robot, not nominated)
Analysis: We don’t get many clear signals when it comes to the frontrunner for Best Original Song. The key precursors – CCA, Globes, and SCL – offer some insight, but not always certainty. This year, the Globes and CCA both awarded “El Mal”, while SCL went with Diane Warren’s “The Journey.”

Many believe the controversy surrounding Emilia Pérez star Karla Sofía Gascón could impact the film beyond just Lead Actress. If that controversy extends to Best Original Song, it could open the door for Warren – who has an incredible 15 nominations without a win – to finally claim her long-overdue Oscar. Warren has been a fixture in this category, earning nominations for the past eight consecutive years (2017–2024). 

In the last 12 years, the Globes and CCA have aligned with the Oscar winner nine times. SCL, which has only been awarding this category for five years, has matched with Oscar just twice in that span.

Original Score
What/Who Will Win: Daniel Blumberg (The Brutalist)
What/Who Could Win: Volker Bertelmann (Conclave) or Kris Bowers (The Wild Robot)
What/Who I Would Have Voted For: Daniel Blumberg (The Brutalist)
Analysis: What should be a tough race to call becomes a bit clearer with the absence of Challengers composers Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, who won both the Globes and CCA but didn’t receive an Oscar nomination. That leaves us with two major prize winners still in contention: The Brutalist composer Daniel Blumberg, who took home BAFTA and SCL honors, and The Wild Robot‘s Kris Bowers, who won SCL.

SCL has only been awarding this category for five years, correctly predicting the Oscar winner three times in that span. BAFTA, however, has been a far stronger indicator, matching the eventual Oscar winner 10 times in the last 11 years. The only exception? A Star Is Born, which won BAFTA but lost the Oscar to Black Panther.
Stat: Best Picture nominees have a significant edge in this category – 21 of the last 24 Score winners were also nominated for Best Picture. The only exceptions? Frida (2002), The Hateful Eight (2015), and Soul (2020). This year, The Wild Robot stands as the lone nominee in Best Original Score without a corresponding Best Picture nod.

Director
What/Who Will Win: Sean Baker (Anora)
What/Who Could Win: Brady Corbet (The Brutalist)
What/Who I Would Have Voted For: Edward Berger (Conclave, not nominated)
Analysis: Corbet won both the BAFTA and the Golden Globe, while Jon M. Chu (Wicked) took home the Critics’ Choice Award. Meanwhile, all Baker managed to win was something small – the DGA. But since Chu isn’t nominated, the real comparison comes down to BAFTA and the Globes versus the DGA.

In the preferential ballot era, the DGA winner has gone on to win the Oscar for Best Director 13 out of 15 times. The only exceptions? Ben Affleck (Argo, 2012) and Sam Mendes (1917, 2019). Over that same period, the Golden Globes aligned with the Oscar winner eight times, while BAFTA matched 10 times. Notably, in nine of those years, the DGA winner’s film also won Best Picture.

As Erik pointed out on X (Twitter), the last person to win Best Director at the Oscars with only the DGA was Alejandro G. Iñárritu for Birdman (2014). That’s the precedent for Baker.

Historically, the DGA is even more dominant as a predictor. In its 76-year history, it has differed from the Oscar winner only nine times – an 88.2% accuracy rate. Additionally, the DGA winner’s film has won Best Picture all but 19 times in that span (a 75% correlation).

If you’re predicting a Picture/Director split – say, Corbet for Director and Anora for Picture, or Baker for Director and Conclave for Picture – keep in mind that this would be the sixth such split in the preferential era. Once a rarity, splits are becoming more common. However, the DGA and PGA have aligned 26 times in the 35 years since the PGA was established. Of those 26 matches, 18 went on to win both Picture and Director at the Oscars. So, if you’re betting against the DGA, proceed with caution.
Stat: Coralie Fargeat is the 10th woman nominated for Director.

Cinematography
What/Who Will Win: Lol Crawley (The Brutalist)
What/Who Could Win: Jarin Blaschke (Nosferatu) or Edward Lachman (Maria)
What/Who I Would Have Voted For: Edward Lachman (Maria)
Analysis: Before Oscar voting wrapped, The Brutalist had claimed BAFTA and BSC cinematography honors, while Nosferatu snagged CCA, teeing up a clash between the two. Then, after voting closed, Edward Lachman gatecrashed with an ASC win for Maria. Of the four major precursors, BAFTA’s track record towers above: since 2012, its cinematography winner has taken the Oscar 11 out of 12 times. The lone exception? Nomadland, upset by Mank (2020). Seven of those 11 winners also took home Best Director, which could tilt the odds toward Brady Corbet when that category rolls around.
Stat: Since black-and-white and color films started competing in the same cinematography category, 18 black-and-white movies have earned Oscar nominations. The most recent? Edward Lachman’s El Conde, just last year.

Sound
What/Who Will Win: Dune: Part Two
What/Who Could Win: A Complete Unknown
What/Who I Would Have Voted For: Conclave (not nominated)
Analysis: BAFTA, MPSE, and AMPS awarded Dune: Part Two, while CAS recognized A Complete Unknown. Since the Academy merged its Sound Editing and Sound Mixing categories just four years ago, the data set is small. In that time, BAFTA, AMPS, and CAS winners have aligned with Oscar three times, while MPSE has matched twice. However, BAFTA remains the strongest indicator, having only mismatched with Oscar twice in the past 17 years.
Stat: Expanding beyond the past four years, when Sound was still divided into two categories, a clear pattern emerges. For 13 consecutive years, at least one of the Sound winners was also nominated for Film Editing. That streak was broken just last year. In nine of those 13 years, the Editing winner matched with one or both Sound winners. This year, Emilia Pérez and Wicked are the only Sound nominees that also have a Film Editing nomination, making them key contenders to watch.

Lead Actor
What/Who Will Win: Adrien Brody (The Brutalist)
What/Who Could Win: Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown)
What/Who I Would Have Voted For: Keith Kupferer (Ghostlight, not nominated)
Analysis: Brody appeared poised for a clean sweep heading into the SAG Awards. With victories already secured at the BAFTAs, Globes, and CCA, Chalamet’s upset win at SAG came as a bit of a surprise. This raises an intriguing question: how will wins announced after Oscar voting closed affect the race? It’s a tough one to answer. Some victories will likely reveal the direction the wind was blowing, while others will prove to be mere distractions. The challenge lies in distinguishing between the two. In my view, Chalamet’s win leans more toward the latter – a red herring rather than a true indicator.
Stat: At 83, Anthony Hopkins became the oldest winner in the Lead Actor category for The Father, surpassing Henry Fonda, who was 76 when he won for On Golden Pond.

Oscar Pool Winners

Film Editing
What/Who Will Win: Conclave
What/Who Could Win: Anora
What/Who I Would Have Voted For: Conclave
Analysis: This is a tough category to predict, especially with the ACE Eddies taking place after the Oscars this year. That’s unfortunate for us, as ACE has historically been the most reliable precursor for this award. Since 2000, the ACE winner has gone on to win the Oscar 16 times in 24 years, and no film has won the Oscar without at least an ACE nomination in that span.

While we do have the CCA winner, that doesn’t help much since Challengers – the CCA pick – wasn’t even nominated for the Oscar. Over the past 15 years, Bohemian Rhapsody (2018) is the only film to win the Oscar for Editing without a CCA nomination. That leaves BAFTA, which awarded Conclave as the best of the year. Conclave is also nominated at ACE and CCA, making it a strong contender. The only other nominee with all three major precursor nods is Anora, the Best Picture frontrunner. While the Best Picture winner has also taken Editing the past two years, it has only happened four times in the preferential ballot era.

One of the most interesting Oscar stats in this category since the introduction of the preferential ballot (2009) is the connection between Film Editing and Sound. In the past 15 years, 14 Editing winners were also nominated in a Sound category. The only exception? Everything Everywhere All At Once (2022). Prior to 2020, when there were two separate Sound categories, the Film Editing winner also won at least one of them 10 times in 11 years – and in five of those cases, it won both. Since AMPAS consolidated Sound into a single category, the Editing and Sound winners have matched twice in four years.

This year, the only films nominated for both Editing and Sound are Wicked and Emilia Pérez. It’s an unpredictable race in an unpredictable year.
Stat: Since Film Editing became an Oscar category at the 1934 Academy Awards, 37 films have won both Best Film Editing and Best Director. Of those, only six failed to go on to win Best Picture: A Place in the Sun (1951), Cabaret (1972), Born on the Fourth of July (1989), Saving Private Ryan (1998), Traffic (2000), and Gravity (2013).

Documentary Feature
What/Who Will Win: Porcelain War
What/Who Could Win: No Other Land
What/Who I Would Have Voted For: Porcelain War
Analysis: No Other Land won IDA and received an ACE nomination, while Porcelain War took the DGA and received nods from PGA and ASC. The BAFTA, CCA, and PGA winners missed Oscar’s cut, leaving DGA and IDA as the key predictors. Of these two groups, DGA has the superior track record. DGA’s winner matched with Oscar’s choice for Documentary seven times in the last 15 years, with 13 of the Oscar winners being DGA-nominated. IDA has synced with Oscar just three times in that stretch, with only eight of the Oscar winners being IDA-nominated. Still, the precursors are a mess, so let’s try to try to get into the mind of an Academy voter. 

No Other Land has a pro-Palestinian edge, exposing the Israeli occupation’s toll. Maybe it missed U.S. distribution because many deemed it too hot to touch. By contrast, Porcelain War, my 2024 standout, fuses art with Ukraine’s defiance, a democratic fight many voters back. No sides taken – just gauging where Academy minds might tilt in this dead-heat race.

Stat: Over the past seven years, Summer of Soul remains the only CCA-winning documentary to snag an Oscar nod. The CCA champs Oscar ignored: Jane, Won’t You Be My Neighbor?, Apollo 11, Dick Johnson Is Dead, Good Night Oppy, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, and now this year’s winners, Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story and Will & Harper.

International Feature
What/Who Will Win: I’m Still Here (Brazil)
What/Who Could Win: Emilia Pérez (France)
What/Who I Would Have Voted For: I’m Still Here
Analysis: Emilia Pérez leads all films with 13 nominations and remains the likely favorite here after sweeping the Golden Globes, CCA, and BAFTA in this category. However, I’m Still Here has been gaining momentum just as Emilia Pérez appears to be losing steam. The controversy surrounding Karla Sofía Gascón’s resurfaced tweets has sparked backlash, which could spill over into this already tight race. Regardless of the outcome, this will mark the first time a Best Picture nominee loses in this category, making historical stats far less reliable than usual.
Stat: Emilia Pérez marks France’s 41st nomination in this category, the most of any country since its inception in 1947. A win would bring France’s total to 13, putting it just one shy of Italy’s record 14 victories, the most in the category’s history.

Picture
What/Who Will Win: Anora
What/Who Could Win: Conclave
What/Who I Would Have Voted For: Conclave
Analysis: We are down to two major contenders: Anora vs Conclave. 

Anora’s case: Anora won PGA, DGA, CCA, and WGA. Historically, only one film has ever won PGA/DGA/CCA while losing both SAG and BAFTA and still claimed Best Picture: The Shape of Water (2017). That year, The Shape of Water triumphed over Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, which had secured SAG, BAFTA, and the Golden Globe for Drama.

If Anora wins Best Picture with only one other award, it would become just the seventh film to do so, joining Wings (1927/1928), All Quiet on the Western Front (1929/1930), You Can’t Take It With You (1938), Rebecca (1940), The Greatest Show on Earth (1952), and Spotlight (2015). If its only other win is Director, it would become just the third film to win solely Best Picture and Best Director, alongside All Quiet on the Western Front and You Can’t Take It With You.

Only three films in Oscar history have won Best Picture as their sole award: The Broadway Melody (1928/1929), Grand Hotel (1931/1932), and Mutiny on the Bounty (1935). If Anora repeats its single win from CCA, it could join this extremely rare group.

If it wins Picture, Director, and Screenplay, it would become just the third film to take that specific trifecta, alongside Casablanca (1943) and Midnight Cowboy (1969). Parasite (2019) could also be included in this category if its International Feature win is excluded. 

If it wins Picture, Director, and Lead Actress, it would match Nomadland (2020) as the only two films to win just those three categories. 

If it wins Picture, Director, Actress, and Screenplay, it would join Annie Hall (1977) as the only film to take that exact quartet. Expanding the Actress slot to include either leading role, Marty (1955), Rain Man (1988), and The King’s Speech (2010) would also fit this pattern.

No matter the combination, Anora is poised to enter rare statistical territory. 

In the preferential ballot era, nine films have won both PGA and DGA and gone on to win Best Picture. Only two have lost: La La Land (2016) and 1917 (2019). Both were arguably stronger contenders than Anora, with La La Land also winning CCA, the Golden Globe, and BAFTA, while 1917 won the Golden Globe and BAFTA – yet neither secured Best Picture in the end.

Conclave’s case: Conclave has won BAFTA, SAG, and several small guild prizes. The only film to win BAFTA and SAG while also winning Best Picture without a Director nomination? Argo (2012). However, Argo was a sweeper, having also won PGA, DGA, Globes, and CCA. Conclave is nowhere near that level of dominance, making its potential victory unprecedented.

I have Conclave winning Adapted Screenplay and Film Editing. In the preferential era, the winner of both Editing and Screenplay has gone on to win Best Picture four times: The Hurt Locker (2009), Argo (2012), Everything Everywhere All At Once (2022), and Oppenheimer (2023). The only time this combination has failed in the era? The Social Network (2010). Beyond that, only a handful of films have ever won both Editing and Screenplay while losing Best Picture: Traffic (2000), Witness (1985), and How the West Was Won (1963). Two others meet this criterion, but in an era when there were three screenplay categories: A Place in the Sun (1951) and Wilson (1944). 

I started the 97th Oscars season in March predicting Conclave as the Best Picture winner. Now, 11 months later, I stand on the brink of predicting to do just that.

But history tells me one thing: it’s hard to bet against the PGA/DGA pairing.

My gut says Conclave. My brain says Anora. 

Original Screenplay
What/Who Will Win: Sean Baker (Anora)
What/Who Could Win: Jesse Eisenberg (A Real Pain) or Coralie Fargeat (The Substance)
What/Who I Would Have Voted For: Jesse Eisenberg (A Real Pain)
Analysis: Having three legitimate contenders makes this one of the most difficult races to call of the night. While The Substance pulled off a surprising Screenplay win at CCA, I see it as the least likely to take the Oscar. That leaves us with Anora, the Best Picture frontrunner, and A Real Pain, a strong contender despite missing a Picture nomination.

What A Real Pain has going for it is that it’s arguably the best-written of the nominees – at least in the traditional sense. Screenplay encompasses many elements, but when analyzing this category, dialogue often stands out as the most immediate indicator of strong writing, and A Real Pain has that in spades over Anora.

However, history is not on its side. In the preferential ballot era, no film has won a Screenplay Oscar without a corresponding Best Picture nomination. The last time a non-Picture nominee won in this category was Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind in 2004, which beat The Aviator. Before that, it happened in 2002 (Talk to Her over Gangs of New York) and 2000 (Almost Famous over Erin Brockovich and Gladiator). Notably, in two of those cases, the non-Picture nominee only had to beat one Best Picture contender. A Real Pain faces an even steeper climb, needing to surpass three.

I’m predicting Anora to win Best Picture. In the last 19 years, the Best Picture winner also claimed a Screenplay Oscar 15 times, with only four exceptions (The Artist, The Shape of Water, Nomadland, and Oppenheimer). That’s a trend I’m not willing to bet against.

Lead Actress
What/Who Will Win: Demi Moore (The Substance)
What/Who Could Win: Mikey Madison (Anora) and Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here)
What/Who I Would Have Voted For: Demi Moore (The Substance)
Analysis: This is the toughest non-short film race of the year, just as it has been in recent years. Like Original Screenplay, there are three legitimate contenders, but to simplify things, I’m narrowing it down to two: Mikey Madison (Anora) and Demi Moore (The Substance). Sorry, Brazil – Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here) would be the first lead acting winner without a BAFTA or SAG nomination, and while it’s certainly possible, I just can’t predict it.

That leaves us with Madison, the young ingénue starring in the (potential) Best Picture winner, and Moore, the established veteran with a compelling career narrative.

Moore’s Globe speech appears to be the defining moment of the season – it resonated deeply, prompting many of us to shift our predictions in her favor. She followed that with a win at CCA before losing BAFTA to Madison, only to rebound with a SAG victory after Oscar voting had closed.

Some will look to the Makeup & Hairstyling category as a key indicator, as The Substance is the frontrunner there. In the preferential era, seven Makeup winners have also claimed an acting award, including the last three years – Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye), Brendan Fraser (The Whale), and Emma Stone (Poor Things).

On the other hand, nine Best Picture winners in the preferential era have also produced at least one acting winner, with five acting awards coming from the last two Best Picture victors alone. Specifically in Lead Actress, when it has come down to two contenders, the actress in the (arguably) stronger Picture nominee has won nine times:

• 2023 – Emma Stone (Poor Things) over Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon)
• 2022 – Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All At Once) over Cate Blanchett (Tár)
• 2021 – Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye) over the field (Tammy Faye won two Oscars, the other four nominees won zero combined)
• 2020 – Frances McDormand (Nomadland) over the field
• 2018 – Olivia Colman (The Favourite) over Glenn Close (The Wife)
• 2016 – Emma Stone (La La Land) over the field
• 2015 – Brie Larson (Room) over Cate Blanchett (Carol)
• 2012 – Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook) over Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty)
• 2010 – Natalie Portman (Black Swan) over Jennifer Lawrence (Winter’s Bone)

In the preferential era, the Golden Globes have actually been the most reliable precursor for Lead Actress, aligning with Oscar 13 times. BAFTA is just behind with 12 matches, followed by SAG with 11, while CCA lags with nine. In fact, until Frances McDormand (Nomadland) won in 2020, this category had lined up with either the SAG or Globe winner every year dating back to 1985. The last to win the Oscar without Globe or SAG before McDormand was Geraldine Page in 1985 for The Trip to Bountiful. At the time, SAG didn’t exist, and the Globes went to Whoopi Goldberg (The Color Purple) for Drama and Kathleen Turner (Prizzi’s Honor) for Comedy.

In the nailbiter of the night, I’m going with heart over history. I’ll take Moore.

Stat: For the first time since 1977, every Best Actress nominee comes from a film nominated for Best Picture. Even more notably, this is the first time since 1940 that the Best Actress lineup represents five different Best Picture nominees. In Oscar history, this marks only the fourth time that all Best Actress contenders have starred in films also nominated for Best Picture, joining 1939, 1940, and 1977.

Animated Short Film
What/Who Will Win: Yuck!
What/Who Could Win: Any of the five
What/Who I Would Have Voted For: Yuck!
Analysis: Wander to Wonder won both BAFTA and the Annie Award.  But the Short films are notoriously unpredictable categories, and the bane of my existence. Yuck! is the most enjoyable of the five. 

Documentary Short Subject
What/Who Will Win: I Am Ready, Warden
What/Who Could Win: Any of the five
What/Who I Would Have Voted For: A Swim Lesson (not nominated)
Analysis: May the road rise to meet you.

Live Action Short Film
What/Who Will Win: A Lien
What/Who Could Win: Any of the five
What/Who I Would Have Voted For: Anuja
Analysis: May the odds be ever in your favor.

That’s a wrap on my 97th Academy Awards coverage. Thanks for sticking with me. As I mentioned at the top, I’ve been predicting the Oscars online since 2009, and this race is the toughest I’ve ever faced. Good luck in your Oscar pools!

Here is an easy view of my final predictions in all 23 categories:

Picture: Anora
Director: Sean Baker (Anora)
Actor: Adrien Brody (The Brutalist)
Actress: Demi Moore (The Substance)
Supporting Actor: Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain)
Supporting Actress: Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)
Adapted Screenplay: Conclave
Original Screenplay: Anora
Cinematography: The Brutalist
Costume Design: Wicked
Film Editing: Conclave
Makeup & Hairstyling: The Substance
Production Design: Wicked
Original Score: The Brutalist
Original Song: “El Mal” (Emilia Pérez)
Sound: Dune: Part Two
Visual Effects: Dune: Part Two
Animated Feature: The Wild Robot
Documentary Feature: Porcelain War
International Feature: I’m Still Here (Brazil)
Animated Short: Yuck!
Documentary Short Subject: I Am Ready, Warden
Live Action Short: A Lien

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Mark Johnson

Mark Johnson has been a prominent voice in film coverage and the Oscar race since 2009. He launched his career with his own website, Award Contenders, before joining forces with Clayton Davis at Awards Circuit from 2011 to 2020. After continuing his insightful work at Awards Daily from 2020 to 2024, Mark now contributes to both The Contending and AwardsWatch. His renowned Oscar predictions column, The Awards Alchemist (formerly Good As Gold), has solidified his reputation in the industry. A member of the Critics Choice Association, Mark regularly attends major film festivals, including Telluride, Nantucket, and Middleburg, offering in-depth analysis and predictions throughout awards season.

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