2026 Cannes Predictions: American Firepower is Low While International Fare Hits High, Almodóvar Out of Comp?
The announcement of this year’s Cannes Film Festival lineup is only a week away but it strangely seems uncertain who and what will be there. While we have a few guarantees, usually by this time, 80% of the main competition lineup is known, which makes calling too many ‘locks’ at this point a bit treacherous. That said, we do have some. Either way, this year aims to be an abundance of wealth from top tier Cannes-friendly filmmakers ready to showcase their work on the Croisette.
Who won’t be there? New films from two-time Palme d’Or winner Ruben Östlund (The Entertainment System is Down), Grand Prix winner Lukas Dhont (Coward) and, in what seems like a perennial name now, Palme d’Or winner Terrence Malick (The Way of the Wind). All are in long, sometimes very long, post-production phases with their films but I do also wonder if some are holding out for next year’s 80th edition. I’m not so secretly holding out hope that Malick’s Jesus pic finally sees the light of day here.
So who will be? What can we look forward to on the Riviera? Pedro Almodóvar will be back (with Bitter Christmas) although I’m hearing a rumor of it being out of competition, at his own request. Very interesting. We’ll see if that pans out. Palme d’Or winners we’ll see making returns will be Hirokazu Kore-eda with Sheep in a Box, Cristian Mungiu with Fjord (starring Academy Award nominees Sebastian Stan and Renate Reinsve) and Nanni Moretti with It Will Happen Tonight.
We’re not likely going to see a lot of big name blockbuster directors and films, by that I mean no Spielbergs or Nolans, or big American star vehicles like Alejandro G. Iñárritu’s Digger with Tom Cruise, but festival favorites from American directors like James Gray with Paper Tiger (starring Scarlett Johansson, Miles Teller and Adam Driver), The Man I Love, a new musical fantasy film from Ira Sachs (with Rami Malek, Ebon Moss-Bachrach, Rebecca Hall, Tom Sturridge) look good. There are rumblings that Jane Schoebrun’s horror movie satire (spoof?) Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma could show up but where? Comp would be a wild and exciting choice but as it’s her third film she can’t be in UCR.
While women directors have increased their representation in the main competition, it’s still nowhere near equitable. In looking a likely and possible contenders for a comp slot, alongside Schoenbraun I think we could see a combination of Everytime from Sandra Wollner, Gentle Monster from Marie Kreutzer, Hot Spot from Agnieszka Smoczyńska (which Focus Features boarded ahead of filming),No One Knows We Play Today from Valentina Maurel and/or The Idiots from Małgorzata Szumowska, Michał Englert. Also keeping an eye out for Milo from Nicole Garcia, Strawberries from Laïla Marrakchi, Dora from July Jung, Call Me Queen from Emily Atef and The Birthday Party from Léa Mysius.
Werner Herzog has been up for the Palme three times: 1975’s The Enigma of Kaspar Hauser (which won him the Grand Prize), 1979’s Woyzeck, 1982’s Fitzcarraldo (which won him Best Director) and 1984’s Where the Ants Dream. This year he’ll have Bucking Fastard with sisters Kate and Rooney Mara as twin sisters in search of an imaginary land where true love is possible, and start digging a tunnel through a mountain range. Nicolas Winding Refn is also a triple Palme d’Or nominee for Drive (2011), Only God Forgives (2013), and The Neon Demon (2016). He won Best Director for Drive. This year he’ll bring Sophie Thatcher, Charles Melton, Havana Rose Liu and Diego Calva in the thriller Her Private Hell.
Placement will be one of mysteries unlocked on April 9, as most of the high-profile names might have accepted, or been shunted, to Cannes Premieres, Directors Fortnight or Un Certain Regard, if we’re looking at filmmakers with their second efforts that have burst on the scene but maybe not quite to comp level yet. But, as a section for first films, actor-turned-directors often thrive here, like Kristen Stewart and Scarlett Johansson last year. Or Eva Victor, in DF. Michael Cera’s Love is Not the Answer and Jordan Firstman’s Club Kid (from the producer of Palme and Oscar winner Anora) could make an appearance there.
Elsewhere, Danny Boyle’s Rupert Murdoch biopic Ink with Guy Pearce, Jack O’Connell and Claire Foy could show up (although in or out of comp, who knows) as could Joel Coen with Jack of Spades, starring Josh O’Connor, who was featured in two of last year’s comp titles, Oliver Hermanus’s The History of Sound and Kelly Reichardt’s The Mastermind.
Here is a list of possible titles for main competition slots of the 79th Cannes Film Festival, with my strongest predictions in bold. The official selection will be announced on April 9, 11am CEST by Thierry Frémaux, director of the festival. Park Chan-wook will serve as the main competition jury president (with the full jury also announced on 4/9), with Honorary Palme d’Or awards already announced for Oscar-winning director, writer and producer Peter Jackson and Oscar-winning actress, director, producer and writer Barbra Streisand.
After by Kirill Serebrennikov
Alpha Gang by David and Nathan Zellner
All of a Sudden by Ryusuke Hamaguchi
Bitter Christmas by Pedro Almodovar
The Birthday Party by Léa Mysius
Bucking Fastard by Werner Herzog
Butterfly Jam by Kantemir Balagov
Call Me Queen by Emily Atef
Circles by Michel Franco
Dora by July Jung
The Dreamed Adventure by Valeska Grisebach
El ser querido by Rodrigo Sorogoyen
Everytime by Sandra Wollner
Fatherland (originally titled 1949) by Paweł Pawlikowski
Fjord by Cristian Mungiu
Full Phil by Quentin Dupieux
Gentle Monster by Marie Kreutzer
A Good Little Soldier by Stephane Brize
Her Private Hell by Nicolas Winding Refn
Hope by Na Hong-jin
Hot Spot by Agnieszka Smoczyńska
I See Buildings Fall Like Lightning by Clio Barnard
The Idiots by Małgorzata Szumowska, Michał Englert
Imperium by Sergei Loznitsa
Ink by Danny Boyle
Jack of Spades by Joel Coen
Les roches rouges by Bruno Dumont
Let Love In by Felix van Groeningen
The Man I Love by Ira Sachs
Milo by Nicole Garcia
No One Knows We Play Today by Valentina Maurel
Out of This World by Albert Serra
Paper Tiger by James Gray
Parallel Tales by Asghar Farhadi
A Place To Heal by Cedric Kahn
Roma Elastica by Bertrand Mandico
Strawberries by Laïla Marrakchi
Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma by Jane Schoebrun
The Unknown by Arthur Harari
Wake of Umbria by Carlos Reygadas
He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Critics Choice Association (CCA), San Francisco Bay Area Film Critics Circle (SFBAFCC) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.
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