2026 Oscar Predictions: ADAPTED SCREENPLAY and ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY (December)

Critic Choice and the Golden Globe nominations gave us screenplay notices (although the Globes only have a single category) and looking at that with Gotham and Spirit Awards nods for good measure, that puts two films out in front: One Battle After Another in adapted and Sorry, Baby in original.

While One Battle is an assured Oscar nominee (and likely winner) the quiet rise of Sorry, Baby feels exactly like the kind of film that gets a screenplay nomination as that film’s sole representation and it coronates Eva Victor–who leads the critics’ awards for most breakthrough/first-time director wins so far–as the defining example of a new filmmaker to take notice of.

It’s feeling a bit shaky for Wake Up Dead Man in adapted right now, and it would be the first Knives Out film to miss a screenplay nomination. The previous two were able to score CCA nods and multiple Globe nods but WUDM was blanked at both. If I Had Legs I’d Kick You has a top 2 Best Actress contender in Rose Byrne so I’m moving the screenplay up into the top 10 this month.

Here are my 2026 Oscar nomination predictions in Adapted Screenplay and Original Screenplay for December.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Other contenders: Die My Love (MUBI), Hedda (Amazon MGM), The History of Sound (MUBI), Kiss of the Spider Woman (Roadside Attractions), The Smashing Machine (A24), Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere (20th Century Studios), The Voice of Hind Rajab (WILLA)

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Other contenders: A House of Dynamite (Netflix), Is This Thing On? (Searchlight Pictures) ↓, The Mastermind (MUBI), Materialists (A24), A Private Life (Sony Pictures Classics), Rental Family (Searchlight Pictures), The Testament of Ann Lee (Searchlight Pictures) ↓

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Erik Anderson

Erik Anderson is the founder/owner and Editor-in-Chief of AwardsWatch and has always loved all things Oscar, having watched the Academy Awards since he was in single digits; making lists, rankings and predictions throughout the show. This led him down the path to obsessing about awards. Much later, he found himself in film school and the film forums of GoldDerby, and then migrated over to the former Oscarwatch (now AwardsDaily), before breaking off to create AwardsWatch in 2013.

He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Critics Choice Association (CCA), San Francisco Bay Area Film Critics Circle (SFBAFCC) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.

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