2026 Oscar Predictions: ADAPTED SCREENPLAY and ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY (October)
Not much to change in Adapted although I do wonder if No Other Choice and Bugonia mining some similar, or at least adjacent, territory and tone might bleed from each other, allowing Train Dreams to break in. For Original, I’m dropping Rental Family and moving The Testament of Ann Lee up. Feel mostly confident about the top four there but it will be interesting to see how much of a fight Weapons can be for that fifth spot where I currently have Jay Kelly holding on.
Here are my 2026 Oscar nomination predictions in Adapted Screenplay and Original Screenplay for October.
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
| 1. One Battle After Another (Warner Bros) |
| 2. Hamnet (Focus Features) |
| 3. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (Netflix) |
| 4. No Other Choice (NEON) |
| 5. Bugonia (Focus Features) |
| 6. Train Dreams (Netflix) |
| 7. Frankenstein (Netflix) |
| 8. Nouvelle Vague (Netflix) |
| 9. Nuremberg (Sony Pictures Classics) ↑ |
| 10. Wicked For Good (Universal Pictures) |
Other contenders: Die My Love (MUBI), Hedda (Amazon MGM), The History of Sound (MUBI), Kiss of the Spider Woman (Roadside Attractions), The Life of Chuck (NEON), The Smashing Machine (A24), Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere (20th Century Studios) ↓
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
| 1. Sentimental Value (NEON) |
| 2. Sinners (Warner Bros) |
| 3. Marty Supreme (A24) |
| 4. It Was Just an Accident (NEON) |
| 5. Jay Kelly (Netflix) |
| 6. Weapons (Warner Bros/New Line) |
| 7. The Secret Agent (NEON) |
| 8. A House of Dynamite (Netflix) |
| 9. Is This Thing On? (Searchlight Pictures) |
| 10. The Testament of Ann Lee (Searchlight Pictures) ↑ |
Other contenders: Blue Moon (Sony Pictures Classics), If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (A24), The Mastermind (MUBI), Materialists (A24), A Private Life (Sony Pictures Classics), Rental Family (Searchlight Pictures) ↓, Sorry, Baby (A24), The Voice of Hind Rajab (TBD)
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