2026 Oscar Predictions: SUPPORTING ACTOR (December)

Erik Anderson December 11, 2025

Supporting Actor brings an interesting case as Critics Choice and the Golden Globes lined up exactly the same. Trouble is, they each have six slots vs Oscars’ five. SAG will cut the chaff from the wheat next month but what if they go off on their own and one or more of Benicio Del Toro (One Battle After Another), Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value), Sean Penn (One Battle After Another), Paul Mescal (Hamnet), Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein) or Adam Sandler (Jay Kelly) miss there?

Some think that Skarsgård will have the toughest time at SAG due to his performance being partly non-English but Sentimental Value is a big crossover hit on the awards circuit and he’s a multi-decade veteran, not some random actor. Mescal has missed some regional critics nominations and isn’t likely to be a winner anywhere, especially when Del Toro has turned into the dominating force here very quickly with New York and NBR (and Skarsgård taking LA) but he’s doing fine with the precursors that matter so far. Elordi is in a strong film that’s surging and his performance is directly attached to an inevitable makeup and hairstyling nomination that will likely be the eventual winner. Sandler has been a surprise SAG nominee before, so he’s very much in the mix.

This might be where a Sinners actor comes into play. Neither Miles Caton nor Delroy Lindo have made much of a dent with critics; Caton has snagged a few breakthrough wins and won Michigan but neither could even win with the African American critics, who went deep for Sinners. If either shows up at SAG–and I’d expect it to be Lindo of the two–that could change this lineup but right now, it’s likely going to end up being five of this top six.

Here are my 2026 Oscar nomination predictions in Supporting Actor for December.

1. Benicio Del Toro – One Battle After Another (Warner Bros) ↑	CCA, GG
2. Stellan Skarsgård – Sentimental Value (NEON) ↑	CCA, GG
3. Sean Penn – One Battle After Another (Warner Bros) ↓	CCA, GG
4. Paul Mescal – Hamnet (Focus Features) ↓	CCA, GG
5. Jacob Elordi – Frankenstein (Netflix)	CCA, GG
6. Adam Sandler – Jay Kelly (Netflix) ↑	CCA, GG
7. Miles Caton – Sinners (Warner Bros) ↑
8. Delroy Lindo – Sinners (Warner Bros) ↑
9. Josh O’Connor – Wake Up Dead Man (Netflix) ↓
10. Andrew Scott – Blue Moon (Sony Pictures Classics)

11. William H. Macy – Train Dreams (Netflix)
12. Michael Shannon – Nuremberg (Sony Pictures Classics)
13. Jacobi Jupe – Hamnet (Focus Features)
14. Jeremy Strong – Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere (20th Century Studios)
15. Alexander Skarsgård – Pillion (A24)
16. Lewis Pullman – The Testament of Ann Lee (Searchlight Pictures)
17. Jack O’Connell – Sinners (Warner Bros)
18. Damson Idris – F1 (Apple Original Films/Warner Bros) NEW
19. Jonathan Bailey – Wicked For Good (Universal Pictures)
20. Stephen Graham – Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere (20th Century Studios)

Next up: Sean Bean – Anemone (Focus Features), Bradley Cooper – Is This Thing On? (Searchlight Pictures), Idris Elba – A House of Dynamite (Netflix), Akira Emoto – Rental Family (Searchlight Pictures), Ben Foster – Christy (Black Bear), Andrew Garfield – After the Hunt (Amazon MGM), Mark Hamill – The Life of Chuck (NEON), Conan O’Brien – If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (A24), Josh O’Connor – The History of Sound (MUBI), Ethan Slater — Wicked: For Good (Universal Pictures), Leo Woodall – Nuremberg (Sony Pictures Classics), Jeffrey Wright – Highest 2 Lowest (Apple Original Films/A24)

Other contenders: Christopher Abbott – The Testament of Ann Lee (Searchlight Pictures), A$AP Rocky – Highest 2 Lowest (Apple Original Films/A24), Adam Driver – Father, Mother, Sister, Brother (MUBI), Stavros Halkias – Bugonia (Focus Features), Woody Harrelson – Ella McCay (20th Century Studios), Tom Hiddleston – The Life of Chuck (NEON), Takehiro Hira – Rental Family (Searchlight Pictures), Robert Pattinson – Die My Love (MUBI), Matt Smith – Caught Stealing (A24), Michael Stuhlbarg – After the Hunt (Amazon MGM), Christoph Waltz – Frankenstein (Netflix)

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Erik Anderson

Erik Anderson is the founder/owner and Editor-in-Chief of AwardsWatch and has always loved all things Oscar, having watched the Academy Awards since he was in single digits; making lists, rankings and predictions throughout the show. This led him down the path to obsessing about awards. Much later, he found himself in film school and the film forums of GoldDerby, and then migrated over to the former Oscarwatch (now AwardsDaily), before breaking off to create AwardsWatch in 2013.

He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Critics Choice Association (CCA), San Francisco Bay Area Film Critics Circle (SFBAFCC) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.