2026 Oscar Predictions: SUPPORTING ACTOR (July)
Not much movement outside of dropping Stephen Graham (those black and white flashbacks in the trailer for Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere say very small part to me) and moving Takehiro Hira (Rental Family) up.
Here are my 2026 Oscar nomination predictions in Supporting Actor for July.
| 1. Stellan Skarsgård – Sentimental Value (NEON) |
| 2. Jeremy Strong – Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere (20th Century Studios) |
| 3. Adam Sandler – Jay Kelly (Netflix) |
| 4. Sean Penn – One Battle After Another (Warner Bros) |
| 5. Paul Mescal – Hamnet (Focus Features) |
| 6. Andrew Garfield – After the Hunt (Amazon MGM) |
| 7. Takehiro Hira – Rental Family (Searchlight Pictures) |
| 8. Miles Caton – Sinners (Warner Bros) |
| 9. Delroy Lindo – Sinners (Warner Bros) |
| 10. Andrew Scott – Blue Moon (Sony Pictures Classics) – Berlin winner |
| 11. Benicio del Toro – One Battle After Another (Warner Bros) |
| 12. Bradley Cooper – Is This Thing On? (Searchlight Pictures) |
| 13. Josh O’Connor – Wake Up Dead Man (Netflix) |
| 14. Stephen Graham – Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere (20th Century Studios) |
| 15. Stavros Halkias – Bugonia (Focus Features) |
| 16. Jonathan Bailey – Wicked For Good (Universal Pictures) |
| 17. Jacob Elordi – Frankenstein (Netflix) |
| 18. William H. Macy – Train Dreams (Netflix) |
| 19. Jack O’Connell – Sinners (Warner Bros) |
| 20. Mark Hamill – The Life of Chuck (NEON) |
Next up: Russell Crowe – Nuremberg (Sony Pictures Classics), Akira Emoto – Rental Family (Searchlight Pictures), Ben Foster – Untitled Christy Martin biopic (TBD), Tom Hiddleston – The Life of Chuck* (NEON), Conan O’Brien – If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (A24), Dylan O’Brien* – Twinless (Roadside Attractions), Josh O’Connor – The History of Sound (MUBI), Robert Pattinson – Die My Love (MUBI), Michael Shannon – Nuremberg (Sony Pictures Classics), Christoph Waltz – Frankenstein (Netflix), Jeffrey Wright – Highest 2 Lowest (Apple Original Films/A24)
Other contenders: Christopher Abbott – Ann Lee (TBD), A$AP Rocky – Highest 2 Lowest (Apple Original Films/A24), Murray Bartlett* – At the Sea (TBD), Sean Bean – Anemone (Focus Features), Adam Driver – Father, Mother, Sister, Brother (MUBI), Idris Elba* – A House of Dynamite (Netflix), Brendan Fraser – Pressure (Focus Features), Woody Harrelson – Ella McKay (20th Century Studios), Lewis Pullman – Ann Lee (TBD), Matt Smith – Caught Stealing (A24), Michael Stuhlbarg – After the Hunt (Amazon MGM)
*Lead or supporting? Murray Bartlett – At the Sea (TBD), Idris Elba – A House of Dynamite (Netflix), Tom Hiddleston – The Life of Chuck (NEON), Dylan O’Brien – Twinless (Roadside Attractions)
2025 or 2026?: Mamoudou Athie – The Drama (A24)
He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Critics Choice Association (CCA), San Francisco Bay Area Film Critics Circle (SFBAFCC) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.
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