2026 Oscar Predictions: SUPPORTING ACTOR (October)

As solid as a top 3 can be in almost any category this season, but I’m moving things around a bit.

With One Battle After Another and Hamnet arguably being the top 2 films, Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value) will likely have to run the game all the way through, similar to a veteran like Christopher Plummer, to find himself the winner in March. Not that he can’t do it but one of either Paul Mescal or Sean Penn could upset that run along the way at SAG, BAFTA or elsewhere. But we’re in the pre-nomination stage right now. The winners game is months away.

We have two films with two contenders, Sinners and One Battle After Another. Similar to Supporting Actress, which arguably has three films with two contenders each (adding Sentimental Value into the mix), there is a surge for Benicio del Toro this month and he could join co-star Penn here in a representation of how we often see these dual supporting contenders shake out; with one having a substantially larger role than the other. In many of these cases, that larger role dominates the winners run while the other is along for the ride; think Sam Rockwell and Woody Harrelson in Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri or Catherine Zeta-Jones and Queen Latifah in Chicago. For Sinners, it’s still difficult to call if either newcomer Miles Caton and/or never-nominated veteran Delroy Lindo will get in. I’ve flipped from previous months, with Lindo above Caton for October.

A trio of Netflix fellas–Josh O’Connor in Wake Up Dead Man, Adam Sandler in Jay Kelly and Jacob Elordi in Frankenstein–still find themselves in the top 10 this month but there’s a case for William H. Macy for his small but moving role in Train Dreams (also from Netflix) to make a play here, especially if the film emerges as a strong contender, which it absolutely could.

Here are my 2026 Oscar nomination predictions in Supporting Actor for October.

Next up: Bradley Cooper – Is This Thing On? (Searchlight Pictures), Idris Elba – A House of Dynamite (Netflix) ↓, Akira Emoto – Rental Family (Searchlight Pictures), Andrew Garfield – After the Hunt (Amazon MGM) ↓, Mark Hamill – The Life of Chuck (NEON), Conan O’Brien – If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (A24), Josh O’Connor – The History of Sound (MUBI), Ethan Slater — Wicked: For Good (Universal Pictures), Leo Woodall – Nuremberg (Sony Pictures Classics), Jeffrey Wright – Highest 2 Lowest (Apple Original Films/A24)

Other contenders: Christopher Abbott – The Testament of Ann Lee (Searchlight Pictures), A$AP Rocky – Highest 2 Lowest (Apple Original Films/A24), Adam Driver – Father, Mother, Sister, Brother (MUBI), Stavros Halkias – Bugonia (Focus Features), Woody Harrelson – Ella McCay (20th Century Studios), Tom Hiddleston – The Life of Chuck (NEON), Takehiro Hira – Rental Family (Searchlight Pictures), Robert Pattinson – Die My Love (MUBI), Lewis Pullman – The Testament of Ann Lee (Searchlight Pictures), Michael Shannon – Nuremberg (Sony Pictures Classics), Matt Smith – Caught Stealing (A24), Michael Stuhlbarg – After the Hunt (Amazon MGM), Christoph Waltz – Frankenstein (Netflix) 

• Author
• Recent Posts

Erik Anderson

Erik Anderson is the founder/owner and Editor-in-Chief of AwardsWatch and has always loved all things Oscar, having watched the Academy Awards since he was in single digits; making lists, rankings and predictions throughout the show. This led him down the path to obsessing about awards. Much later, he found himself in film school and the film forums of GoldDerby, and then migrated over to the former Oscarwatch (now AwardsDaily), before breaking off to create AwardsWatch in 2013.

He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Critics Choice Association (CCA), San Francisco Bay Area Film Critics Circle (SFBAFCC) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.

Latest posts by Erik Anderson (see all)

• ‘Frankenstein’ to Receive Visionary Honor from Palm Springs International Film Awards - December 4, 2025
• Robert Yeoman to be Honored with American Society of Cinematographers’ Lifetime Achievement Award - December 3, 2025
• National Board of Review: ‘One Battle After Another’ Tops in Film, Director, Actor, Supporting Actor; Netflix Lands Four in Top 10 - December 3, 2025