2026 Oscar Predictions: SUPPORTING ACTOR (September)

Is Josh O’Connor about to have a Jessica Chastain moment?

Back in 2011, Chastain was exploding onto the scene and had no less than four noteworthy films released that year, two that were nominated for Best Picture (The Help and The Tree of Life) and two killer indies (Take Shelter and Coriolanus), all of which helped push her to her first Oscar nomination – for the biggest film of the bunch, The Help. While obviously not a 1:1 comparison, this year O’Connor has four films in the mix; The History of Sound (which was just released), The Mastermind (October), Rebuilding (Sundance debut set for November) and the big one, Wake Up Dead Man, where’s he’s received the best notices of the large ensemble. The thing is, neither of the previous Knives Out films have been able to nab an acting nod, only screenplay. Can O’Connor break that curse?

I’m keeping Sentimental Value‘s Stellan Skarsgård at #1 but Paul Mescal is nipping at his heels in the stronger film. My sources say Mescal will likely be kept in supporting for Hamnet and from a storytelling perspective it’s the right place for him. Although, despite the Academy’s aversion to child actors, Mescal may face a tiny bit of competition from the pint sized namesake of the film, played by Jacobi Jupe. Very unlikely but worth mentioning.

Now that One Battle After Another has been seen, two-time Best Actor winner Sean Penn is locked in for his first Supporting Actor nod and, if the film is as strong with the Academy as it seems like it will be, he might just be walking away with a third win.

Here are my 2026 Oscar nomination predictions in Supporting Actor for September.

Next up: Bradley Cooper – Is This Thing On? (Searchlight Pictures) ↓, Akira Emoto – Rental Family (Searchlight Pictures), Mark Hamill – The Life of Chuck (NEON) ↓, Takehiro Hira – Rental Family (Searchlight Pictures) ↓, Conan O’Brien – If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (A24), Dylan O’Brien* – Twinless (Roadside Attractions), Josh O’Connor – The History of Sound (MUBI), Leo Woodall – Nuremberg (Sony Pictures Classics) NEW, Jeffrey Wright – Highest 2 Lowest (Apple Original Films/A24)

Other contenders: Christopher Abbott – Ann Lee (TBD), A$AP Rocky – Highest 2 Lowest (Apple Original Films/A24), Adam Driver – Father, Mother, Sister, Brother (MUBI), Stavros Halkias – Bugonia (Focus Features) ↓, Tom Hiddleston – The Life of Chuck* (NEON) ↓, Woody Harrelson – Ella McCay (20th Century Studios), Robert Pattinson – Die My Love (MUBI), Lewis Pullman – Ann Lee (TBD), Michael Shannon – Nuremberg (Sony Pictures Classics) ↓, Matt Smith – Caught Stealing (A24), Michael Stuhlbarg – After the Hunt (Amazon MGM), Christoph Waltz – Frankenstein (Netflix) ↓

*Lead or supporting? Sean Bean – Anemone (Focus Features), Tom Hiddleston – The Life of Chuck (NEON), Dylan O’Brien – Twinless (Roadside Attractions)

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Erik Anderson

Erik Anderson is the founder/owner and Editor-in-Chief of AwardsWatch and has always loved all things Oscar, having watched the Academy Awards since he was in single digits; making lists, rankings and predictions throughout the show. This led him down the path to obsessing about awards. Much later, he found himself in film school and the film forums of GoldDerby, and then migrated over to the former Oscarwatch (now AwardsDaily), before breaking off to create AwardsWatch in 2013.

He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Critics Choice Association (CCA), San Francisco Bay Area Film Critics Circle (SFBAFCC) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.

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