2026 Oscar Predictions: SUPPORTING ACTRESS (December)

As in Best Actor, the critics groups that announced in the first week of the month were really spread out. Of the big ones, Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another) grabbed the win from Los Angeles while Amy Madigan (Weapons) snapped twigs for New York critics. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas (Sentimental Value) nabbed National Board of Review and Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners) won the first award of the season with the Gotham.

Then Critics Choice and the Golden Globes chimed in with their nominations where all three were nodded alongside Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value) and Ariana Grande (Wicked: For Good). That left just one contender in each group as an outsider; Moskau for Critics Choice and Emily Blunt (The Smashing Machine) for the Globes. For Blunt, as an 8-time nominee she’s been a favorite with the org over the years and this nomination gave some life into what feeling like it was on the ropes before the season even started. For Mosaku, her film was a bigger player with CCA as the nomination leader.

All of this, plus Grande’s film looking like it’s going to have a tougher time than the first film did–star Cynthia Erivo couldn’t nab a CCA nomination in a field of 6 and director Jon M. Chu (who won last year) didn’t either–puts her in a precarious position with some interesting history at stake. As mentioned in last month’s predictions where I finally added Grande to the top 5, supporting actresses that are Oscar-nominated when their film is nominated for Best Picture have a very good chance of winning. Catherine Zeta-Jones, Anne Hathaway, Ariana DeBose and last year’s Zoe Saldaña all did. If Wicked: For Good is Best Picture-nominated and Grande lands a spot too then history following suit makes sense. The other side of this history is that no performer has ever been nominated twice in this category for playing the same character so what Grande will have to pull off would be epic.

So, for me, it feels like a fight for the fifth spot between Grande, two cases of Oscar royalty in previous winner Gwyneth Paltrow (Marty Supreme) and 8-time nominee Glenn Close (Wake Up Dead Man) and a major newcomer in Odessa A’zion (Marty Supreme). All three of the latter missed both CCA and GG so it’s likely that SAG will give us the answer, much like it did last year when Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown) surprised at both SAG and Oscar. So maybe the wise bet is once again on the actress playing opposite Best Actor contender Timothée Chalamet.

Here are my 2026 Oscar nomination predictions in Supporting Actress for December.

Other contenders: Glenn Close – The Summer Book (Music Box), Fran Drescher – Marty Supreme (A24), Ayo Edebiri – After the Hunt (Amazon MGM), Mia Goth – Frankenstein (Netflix), Gaby Hoffmann – Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere (20th Century Studios), America Ferrera – The Lost Bus (Apple Original Films) , Thomasin McKenzie – The Testament of Ann Lee (Searchlight Pictures), Katy O’Brian – Christy (Black Bear), Margaret Qualley – Blue Moon (Sony Pictures Classics), Son Ye-jin – No Other Choice (NEON), Sissy Spacek – Die My Love (MUBI), Mia Threapleton – The Phoenician Scheme (Focus Features), Mari Yamamoto – Rental Family (Searchlight Pictures)

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Erik Anderson

Erik Anderson is the founder/owner and Editor-in-Chief of AwardsWatch and has always loved all things Oscar, having watched the Academy Awards since he was in single digits; making lists, rankings and predictions throughout the show. This led him down the path to obsessing about awards. Much later, he found himself in film school and the film forums of GoldDerby, and then migrated over to the former Oscarwatch (now AwardsDaily), before breaking off to create AwardsWatch in 2013.

He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Critics Choice Association (CCA), San Francisco Bay Area Film Critics Circle (SFBAFCC) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.

Latest posts by Erik Anderson (see all)

• 2026 Oscar Predictions: SUPPORTING ACTOR (December) - December 11, 2025
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