2026 Oscar Predictions: The Awards Alchemist Checks In After Week One of Precursors

In the past week, a slew of major awards bodies handed out prizes or announced nominations. That includes the Gothams, the National Board of Review (NBR), the American Film Institute (AFI), the Los Angeles Film Critics Association (LAFCA), the New York Film Critics Circle (NYFCC), the Critics Choice Association (CCA), and the Golden Globes.

As predictors, some of these groups are far more reliable than others. Overlap in taste with the Academy varies, and several have never shown consistent alignment with AMPAS.

The Gothams began presenting a Best Feature prize in 2004. Out of their 21 winners, only four later matched the Oscar winner for Best Picture. NBR has been around for 94 years, yet only 22 of their selections have lined up with the Academy. NYFCC has awarded Best Picture for 91 years and has matched AMPAS 31 times; their last match was The Artist in 2011. LAFCA has awarded a Best Picture for 50 years and has matched the Oscar only 13 times.

All four critics groups named Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another the film of the year. I guess that settles it, right? We can all pack up for the season and declare the race over in the second week of December. Clearly no other film stands even a fraction of a chance against PTA’s unstoppable juggernaut…

Not so fast! 

It is an impressive sweep, but not the type that defines a real Best Picture frontrunner once you look at how these races actually unfold.

AFI operates differently. Since 2000, AFI has released a top ten list of American films rather than naming a single winner. Over that span, the eventual Best Picture winner has appeared on the list 20 times. Only one eligible film won Best Picture without any form of AFI citation, and that was The Departed in 2006. Slumdog Millionaire (2008) was ineligible as a non-American production. The King’s Speech (2010), The Artist, and Parasite (2019) received special citation status for eligibility reasons. When AFI leaves out an eligible film, it almost never becomes Best Picture.

That brings us to CCA and the Golden Globes. These two groups have much stronger Oscar overlap, especially in Best Picture. Since the Academy adopted the preferential ballot in 2009, CCA has matched the Best Picture winner ten times and the Golden Globes seven times. Neither body is as predictive as the guilds, but both remain important bellwethers.

Some numbers speak for themselves. In the past 54 years, 47 Oscar Best Picture winners have received a Golden Globe nomination for Best Screenplay, an 87 percent rate. CODA (2021) won Best Picture without a Globe screenplay nomination; before that, the last film to do so was Million Dollar Baby in 2004. This year’s Globe nominees for Screenplay are One Battle After Another, Hamnet, Sinners, Sentimental Value, Marty Supreme, and It Was Just an Accident.

The Golden Globes also offer strong indicators in the acting races. In the past 25 years, 17 Drama Lead Actor winners at the Globes went on to win the Oscar. In the Supporting categories, where the Globes do not separate Drama from Comedy/Musical, winners have matched the Oscars 13 times in the past 17 years for Supporting Actress and 15 times in the past 18 years for Supporting Actor.

As for Lead Actress, Frances McDormand for Nomadland and Mikey Madison for Anora lost Globes and SAG in 2020 and 2024 respectively, but both still went on to win the Oscar. Before McDormand, the last actress to win the Oscar without winning either SAG or the Globe was Geraldine Page for The Trip to Bountiful (1985). For nearly four decades this category has almost always aligned with either SAG or the Globes, which makes the Globe outcome especially important.

Animated Feature is even more straightforward. Nine of the past ten Oscar winners first won the Globe.

CCA has held similar influence in recent years. Over the past ten years, CCA and the Academy have matched seven times for Lead Actor, five times for Lead Actress, nine times for Supporting Actor, and eight times for Supporting Actress. In that same period, CCA matched the Oscar winner in Animated Feature, Original Song, and Original Score seven times each. 

Since adding several crafts to their ceremony in 2009, CCA has also been a reliable early indicator below the line. In those 16 years, Costumes matched 13 times, Cinematography matched 11 times, and Production Design matched 12 times. That kind of consistency deserves attention.

While neither the Globes nor CCA share membership with the Academy, both help shape momentum. Their visibility, television platforms, and timing give nominees a high-profile moment to land a persuasive speech. A strong speech can genuinely move the needle.

How I currently view the Best Picture race:

A few films have clearly separated themselves from the pack and hold strong odds for a nomination. This decade, every Best Picture winner received nominations or wins from CCA, the Globes, and AFI when eligible*. These films have those credentials and are my frontrunners for Picture.

One Battle After Another – Warner Bros. (AFI, CCA, Globes, NBR, NY, LA, Gothams)

Hamnet – Focus Features (AFI, CCA, Globes, Gothams)

Sinners – Warner Bros. (AFI, CCA, Globes, NBR)

Sentimental Value* – NEON (CCA, Globes)

Marty Supreme – A24 (AFI, CCA, Globes, NBR)

Frankenstein – Netflix (AFI, CCA, Globes, NBR)

Two films make up the next tier, one driven by political relevance and the other by its strong showing so far.

It Was Just an Accident – NEON (Globes, Cannes, NBR)

Bugonia – Focus Features (AFI, CCA, Globes, Gothams)

Accident surprisingly missed at CCA but won the Palme at Cannes. As AMPAS becomes more international, I would be surprised if it missed the Oscar cut.

Bugonia has the CCA, Globes, and AFI trifecta, yet it still feels a step behind the top tier. I have had the film in my Picture predictions since March, when it was my original frontrunner, because the preferential ballot rewards passionate fan bases that titles like this attract. It looks like the type of film that can gather enough number one votes to secure a spot in the ten.

Behind them are five films competing for the final two slots.

The Secret Agent – NEON (Globes)

Wicked: For Good – Universal Pictures (AFI, CCA, NBR)

Train Dreams – Netflix (AFI, CCA, NBR, Gothams)

Jay Kelly – Netflix (AFI, CCA, NBR)

No Other Choice – NEON (Globes)

On December 5, Netflix announced they had an agreement in place to acquire Warner Bros. film and television studios. The news sparked major alarm across Hollywood, from the industry, guilds, and even politicians. Many feel strongly that this acquisition violates antitrust rules and will continue the erosion of the theatrical experience. The Writers Guild of America called the merger “what antitrust laws were designed to prevent.” The Directors Guild of America, SAG-AFTRA, and Teamsters echoed these sentiments, with major figures like James Cameron and Jane Fonda vocalizing their concerns publicly.

Investors and consumers may welcome the move, but they are not the ones voting. It would not surprise me if some fringe contenders are affected by this situation (which still could be delayed or even derailed). Voters may hesitate to reward a company they view as a threat to jobs and wages. It could sit in the back of their minds and affect the chances for films like Jay Kelly or Train Dreams. I don’t think it will impact too greatly in other categories where individuals are awarded, but one has to be wary of current trends and zeitgeist in all forms.

That leaves a pair of international features distributed by NEON and a less than enthusiastic sequel to one of last year’s Best Picture nominees. For The Secret Agent and No Other Choice to land nominations, NEON would need a rather large slice of the pie. With Sentimental Value and It Was Just an Accident presumed in, this would give the studio three or four nominees. It is rare for one studio to have that level of presence in the race, but perhaps voters will use that to send a message about the Netflix/Warner Bros. merger. Considering the continued growth of international voters, one of those two titles is a smart bet.

Of the two, The Secret Agent appears to have the upper hand, as Wagner Moura stands a strong chance of being nominated for Lead Actor after receiving nods from CCA and the Globes. While Lee Byung-hun also received a Globe nomination for No Other Choice, his odds of making the Oscar five are lower. In the preferential ballot era, 53 of the 80 Lead Actor nominations have come from Best Picture nominees. If you are betting on Moura, it makes sense to carry the film with him.

Wicked: For Good is not a small prestige title but a box office giant from a major studio; it has earned 440.9 million worldwide against a 150 million production budget as of this writing. It also gives voters a chance to recognize a film backed by a strong theatrical run. I am not sure voters will think this deeply about it, but timing matters.

It would be a shame to penalize the Netflix slate over this, as I am a big fan of Jay Kelly and Train Dreams. Still, it would not be the first time AMPAS used their platform to make a statement. The greater fear should be how this might backfire if voters choose that route. An industry teetering on the edge of irrelevance needs to look forward, not backward. “Adapt or die,” as Brad Pitt’s Billy Beane memorably put it in Bennett Miller’s Moneyball.

The race should sharpen over the next seven weeks as we move toward the January 22, 2026 nominations date. For now, we have a strong frontrunner on our hands, no question about it. But we are still early in the season and the major precursors are only beginning to speak. Nothing is absolute, no matter what the loudest corners of the internet insist. The smart move is to stay fluid, stay curious, and let the race reveal its real shape. We are just getting started.

Here are my updated Oscar predictions:

Next ten:

1. Train Dreams (Netflix) – CCA; AFI; Spirits; AFCC; Gothams; AARP; NBR; SFCS; IFJA; 
2. Jay Kelly (Netflix) – CCA; AFI; NBR; IFJA; 
3. No Other Choice (NEON) – Globes; AFCC; SCAD; IFJA; 
4. Avatar: Fire and Ash (20th Century Studios) – AFI; HMMA; NBR; 
5. Nouvelle Vague (Netflix) – Globes; 
6. Blue Moon (Sony Pictures Classics) – Globes; 
7. The Testament of Ann Lee (Searchlight Pictures) – Gothams; 
8. Weapons (Warner Bros.) – AFCC; SFCS; StLFCA; IFJA; 
9. F1 (Apple Original Films/Warner Bros.) – HMMA; NBR; 
10. Is This Thing On? (Searchlight Pictures)

Next five:

1. Guillermo del Toro (Frankenstein) – Globes; CCA; AARP; MI; 
2. Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme) – CCA; MI; SFCS; WAFCA; StLFCA; IFJA; 
3. Noah Baumbach (Jay Kelly)
4. Yorgos Lanthimos (Bugonia) – EFA;
5. Park Chan-wook (No Other Choice) – IFJA; 

Next five:

1. Amanda Seyfried (The Testament of Ann Lee) – Globes; CCA; Gothams; SFCS; StLFCA; 
2. Chase Infiniti (One Battle After Another) – Globes; CCA; MI; WAFCA; StLFCA; 
3. Jennifer Lawrence (Die, My Love) – Globes; Gothams; BIFA;
4. Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue) – Globes; 
5. Julia Roberts (After the Hunt) – Globes; AARP; 

Next five:

1. Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon) – Globes; CCA; LAFCA; Gothams; AARP; SFCS; WAFCA; StLFCA; TFCA; IFJA; 
2. Jeremy Allen White (Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere) – Globes; 
3. Jesse Plemons (Bugonia) – Globes; IFJA; 
4. Dwayne Johnnson (The Smashing Machine) – Globes; AARP; 
5. Oscar Isaac (Frankenstein) – Globes; 

Next five:

1. Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value) – Globes; CCA; StLFCA; 
2. Nina Hoss (Hedda) – Spirits; TFCA; 
3. Regina Hall (One Battle After Another) – AARP;
4. Gwyneth Paltrow (Marty Supreme) – AARP;
5. Emily Blunt (The Smashing Machine) – Globes; 

Next five:

1. Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein) – Globes; CCA; MI; SFCS; WAFCA; TFCA; IFJA; 
2. Delroy Lindo (Sinners) – AARP; WAFCA; 
3. Miles Caton (Sinners) – MI; IFJA; 
4. William H. Macy (Train Dreams) – SFCS; 
5. Andrew Scott (Blue Moon) – LAFCA; StLFCA; 

Next four:

1. Rian Johnson (Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery) – MI; StLFCA; IFJA; 
2. Park Chan-wook, Lee Kyoung-Mi, Jahye Lee, Don McKellar (No Other Choice) – CCA; Gothams; TFCA; IFJA; 
3. Winnie Holzman and Dana Fox (Wicked: For Good) – MI; 
4. Scott Cooper (Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere)

Next five:

1. Zach Cregger (Weapons) – CCA; AFCC; WAFCA; StLFCA; IFJA; 
2. Will Arnett, Mark Chappell, and Bradley Cooper (Is This Thing On?) – AARP;
3. Kleber Mendonça Filho (The Secret Agent) – Gothams; 
4. Eva Victor (Sorry, Baby) – CCA; LAFCA; Gothams; SFCS; StLFCA; 
5. Mona Fastvold and Brady Corbet (The Testament of Ann Lee)

How I did last year: New category!

On the Radar:

1. Tiffany Little Canfield and Bernard Telsey (Wicked: For Good) – CCA; MI; 
2. Yngvill Kolset Haga and Avy Kaufman (Sentimental Value) – HCA; WAFCA; 
3. Bret Howe and Mary Vernieu (Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery) – AARP; HCA; MI; SFCS; WAFCA; IFJA; 
4. Robin D. Cook (Frankenstein) 
5. Bugonia – IFJA; 

Next five:

1. Darius Khondji (Marty Supreme) – HCA; WAFCA; IFJA; 
2. Russell Carpenter (Avatar: Fire and Ash) – MI; 
3. Claudio Miranda (F1) – CCA; 
4. William Rexer (The Testament of Ann Lee)
5. Robbie Ryan (Bugonia)

Next five:

1. Malgorzata Karpiuk (The Testament of Ann Lee) – HCA; StLFCA; 
2. Kiss of the Spider Woman – CCA; 
3. Marty Supreme
4. One Battle After Another
5. Nouvelle Vague

Next five:

1. Myron Kerstein (Wicked: For Good) – HCA; 
2. Olivier Bugge Coutte (Sentimental Value) – HCA; 
3. Bugonia (Yorgos Mavropsaridis)
4. Kirk Baxter (A House of Dynamite) – CCA; StLFCA; 
5. Evan Schiff (Frankenstein)

Next five:

1. Bugonia 
2. 28 Years Later – CCA; 
3. Leo Satkovich, Melizah Wheat, and Jason Collins (Weapons) – HCA; 
4. Hamnet
5. Blue Moon

Next five:

1. Adam Stockhausen and Anna Pinnock (The Phoenician Scheme) – HCA; SFCS; StLFCA; 
2. The Testament of Ann Lee
3. Cara Bower and Stella Fox (Hedda) – HCA; 
4. Marty Supreme – CCA; 
5. The Fantastic Four: First Steps – CCA; SFCS; WAFCA; 

Next five:

1. Daniel Lopatin (Marty Supreme) – CCA; HMMA; WAFCA; IFJA; 
2. Nicholas Britell (Jay Kelly) – HCA; 
3. Jerskin Fendrix (Bugonia) – HMMA; IFJA; 
4. Daniel Blumberg (The Testament of Ann Lee) – StLFCA; 
5. Volker Bertelmann (A House of Dynamite) – HMMA;

Next five:

1. “Train Dreams” (Train Dreams) – Globes; CCA; HCA; 
2. “No Place Like Home” (Wicked: For Good) – Globes; HMMA; HCA; 
3. “Drive” (F1) – CCA; HMMA;
4. “Clothed by the Sun” (The Testament of Ann Lee) – CCA; HCA; 
5. “Lose My Mind” (F1) – HMMA;

Next five:

1. Nathan Robitaille, Nelson Ferreira, Christian Cooke, Brad Zoern, and Greg Chapman (Frankenstein) – CCA; HCA;
2. Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere
3. The Testament of Ann Lee
4. Marty Supreme
5. Warfare – CCA; BIFA;

Next five:

1. Pablo Helman, Jonathan Fawkner, Anthony Smith, Dale Newton, and Paul Corbould (Wicked: For Good)
2. The Fantastic Four: First Steps – IFJA; 
3. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning – CCA; 
4. David Vickery, Stephen Aplin, Charmaine Chan, Simone Coco, and Neil Corbould (Jurassic World: Rebirth) – HCA;
5. TRON: Ares – StLFCA; IFJA; 

Next five:

1. Demon Slayer: Kimetsu No Yaiba Infinity Castle – Globes; 
2. Ne Zha 2 (A24) – StLFCA; IFJA; 
3. In Your Dreams – CCA; IFJA; 
4. Scarlet (Sony) 
5. The Legend of Hei 2 – IFJA; 

Next five:

1. The Tale of Silyan – CCA; Spirits; IDA; MI; TFCA; 
2. The Alabama Solution – CCA; AFCC; SFCS; 
3. Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk – Gothams; CinemaEye; MI; WAFCA; 
4. Riefenstahl – CCA; EFA; AARP; 
5. The Eyes of Ghana

Next five:

1. Sirāt (Spain) – Globes; CCA; Spirits; BIFA; StLFCA; TFCA; 
2. Left-Handed Girl (Taiwan) – CCA; WAFCA; IFJA; 
3. Belén (Argentina) – CCA;
4. Sound of Falling (Germany) – Gothams; BIFA; 
5. The President’s Cake (Iraq)

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Mark Johnson

Mark Johnson has been a prominent voice in film coverage and the Oscar race since 2009. He launched his career with his own website, Award Contenders, before joining forces with Clayton Davis at Awards Circuit from 2011 to 2020. After continuing his insightful work at Awards Daily from 2020 to 2024, Mark now contributes to both The Contending and AwardsWatch. His renowned Oscar predictions column, The Awards Alchemist (formerly Good As Gold), has solidified his reputation in the industry. A member of the Critics Choice Association, Mark regularly attends major film festivals, including Telluride, Nantucket, and Middleburg, offering in-depth analysis and predictions throughout awards season.

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