2026 Oscar Predictions: The Awards Alchemist Frames the Cinematography Landscape

As the cinematic landscape of 2025 slowly begins to take shape, I’m diving back into my Oscar predictions, this time with a focus on the artistry of cinematography. In a year already brimming with visual ambition, cinematographers are shaping not just how films are seen but how they’re felt. With the 98th Academy Awards still months away, the race is already simmering with potential contenders. These are films that promise to dazzle the eye, heighten emotion, and redefine visual storytelling. I’ll spotlight the early frontrunners, unpack their stylistic brilliance, and predict which works may leave an indelible mark on this year’s Oscar race.

But first, let’s take a look at a few trailers released since the last Awards Alchemist post and talk about what’s gaining early buzz. 

Sentimental Value (NEON)

The trailer is stunning. Enough said. For more, check out Sophia’s extraordinary review from Cannes here.

Verdict: Major awards contender

Bugonia – teaser (Focus Features)

Yorgos Lanthimos’ new film has sat at the top of my list for Best Picture predictions since March, despite strong consideration for Sentimental Value. The latter feels like the much smarter choice heading into the fall festival season, but I can’t help but think Lanthimos’ time is coming soon. 

Verdict: Major awards contender

After the Hunt (Amazon MGM)

I really loved this trailer. I hope it’s the type of film that infuriates everyone. Black, white, male, female…. If it does that, it could be magic. Ayo Edebiri looks so strong here. Glad I had here in my initial acting predictions in May.

Verdict: Awards contender

Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere (20th Century Studios)

Jeremy Allen White stars as the titular Boss in Scott Cooper’s Bruce Springsteen biopic. Not a huge fan of the cut of this trailer, but it’s hard not to see this as an awards player. Good director and cast that includes Jeremy Strong as Springsteen’s manager, Jon Landau. It fits the mold as the standard musical biopic that seems to work magic with the Academy as of late – A Complete Unknown (2024), Elvis (2022), Bohemian Rhapsody (2019), to name a few.

Verdict: Awards contender

Wake Up Dead Man (Netflix)

The third installment in the Knives Out franchise finds Benoit Blanc (Daniel Craig) back on the case. We could be looking at a strong contender for the newly minted Achievement in Casting Oscar that will debut this season. Along with Craig, the film stars Josh O’Connor, Glenn Close, Josh Brolin, Mila Kunis, Jeremy Renner, Andrew Scott, Kerry Washington, Cailee Spaeny, and Thomas Haden Church.

Verdict: In the conversation

Wicked: For Good (Universal Pictures)

Last year, Wicked hauled in an impressive ten Academy Award nominations, including Best Picture. It won Costume Design and Production Design. The sequel should be right back at the top of the pile for consideration in all of the same categories, add Casting, all of which we will be discussing momentarily. The new trailer for Wicked: For Good only enforces what we saw in the first film. 

Verdict: Major awards contender

The Running Man (Paramount Pictures)

Edgar Wright’s re-telling of the Stephen King dystopian novel starring Glen Powell, Josh Brolin, Michael Cera, Lee Pace, Katy O’Brian, Jayme Lawson, William H. Macy, Sean Hayes, Emilia Jones, and Colman Domingo, has the look and feel of a blockbuster. Having grown up with the 1987 Arnold Schwarzenegger film, I’m excited to see how they make this feel fresh. Wright is certain to bring a little more fun and wildness to his version. Even if it isn’t the type of film that wins awards, it could put a lot of butts in seats. 

Verdict: Looks fun as hell, but not an awards vehicle

Project Hail Mary (Amazon MGM)

Holy moly, I cannot wait for this one! Unfortunately, it looks like this has a March, 2026 release date, so we will have to add it to next year’s predictions. Project Hail Mary looks like the role Ryan Gosling was built for, showing off the trifecta of his comedic timing, charming charisma, and dramatic talent. The obvious comparison, awards-wise, would be Adam McKay’s Don’t Look Up (2021), another sci-fi dark comedy satire that went on to receive four Oscar nominations, including Best Picture. I’m curious about its award prospects, but even more interested to see if this ends up my favorite film of 2026. In Phil Lord and Christopher Miller we trust. 

Verdict: Awards contender in 2026, god willing

That’s enough, for now. There were several other trailers that could be either award contenders or pretenders, but I’m excited to get into the Cinematography preview, so let’s change gears now. 

From 2019 to 2024, Best Cinematography nominees ranged from sprawling epics (Dune, Oppenheimer) and visceral war films (1917, All Quiet on the Western Front) to quiet character dramas (The Power of the Dog, The Lighthouse) and bold genre experiments (Emilia Pérez, Nosferatu). These films share vivid visual storytelling, often driven by auteur directors, blending digital precision with a revival of film. Historical and emotional themes dominate, with horror and musicals adding fresh variety. Cinematographers like Roger Deakins and Greig Fraser frequently stand out.

Let’s dive into the cinematographers shaping the 2025 Oscar race, grouped by their proven track records and bold visions.

Veteran Collaborations: These cinematographers are reteaming with auteur directors, leveraging past chemistry for stunning results.

• Dan Laustsen has been nominated twice for Best Cinematography and might have won for The Shape of Water (2017) if not for Alfonso Cuarón’s masterfully shot Roma. This year, he’s once again teaming up with Guillermo del Toro on Frankenstein, and based on early trailers and images, his cinematography looks poised to be a standout once again with its gothic, haunting frames.
• Robbie Ryan shot Yorgos Lanthimos’ The Favourite (2018) and Poor Things (2023) and received nominations for both. He reunites with his Greek director for Bugonia, likely delivering the surreal, vibrant visuals that mark their partnership.
• Both Paul Thomas Anderson and Michael Bauman are listed as the director of photography for PTA’s One Battle After Another. Bauman also co-shot Licorice Pizza (2021) with PTA, Bauman’s only other feature film behind the camera, bringing a raw, intimate edge.
• Russell Carpenter won the Oscar for James Cameron’s Titanic (1997), and worked with Cameron again on Avatar: The Way of Water. They will reteam for Avatar: Fire and Ash, promising epic, immersive visuals.
• Seamus McGarvey, the DP for Lynne Ramsay’s Die My Love, worked with the director on We Need to Talk About Kevin (2011), likely crafting moody, emotional frames.
• Kasper Tuxen is back with Joachim Trier for Sentimental Value. The pair worked together on The Worst Person in the World (2021), setting the stage for nuanced, heartfelt visuals.
• James Friend won the Oscar for shooting Edward Berger’s masterpiece, All Quiet on the Western Front (2023), and will reunite with Berger for Ballad of a Small Player, potentially delivering another visceral war-tinged aesthetic.
• Bruno Delbonnel has earned six Academy Award nominations for Cinematography but has yet to take home a win. In The Phoenician Scheme, his work features the warm color palettes and precise framing that align closely with Wes Anderson’s signature symmetrical, whimsical style. Interestingly, the only Anderson film ever nominated for Best Cinematography was The Grand Budapest Hotel (2014), which was shot by Robert Yeoman.
• Three-time Oscar nominee Matthew Libatique is reuniting with no less than THREE former co-workers. The first is Bradley Cooper’s Is This Thing On? These two worked together on A Star Is Born (2018) and Maestro (2023). The second is Darren Aronofsky’s Caught Stealing. Libatique is a long-time collaborator with Aronofsky. The duo worked on Pi (1998), Requiem for a Dream (2000), The Fountain (2006), Black Swan (2010), Noah (2014), Mother! (2017), and The Whale (2022). The third is Spike Lee on Highest 2 Lowest. Libatique shot Lee’s Inside Man (2006).

Standout Contenders: These cinematographers are poised to dominate with fresh, striking work.

• Autumn Durald Arkapaw should be a strong contender for the way she captured the Mississippi Delta’s expansive landscapes and intimate character moments in Sinners. Her work blends moody lighting and textured visuals to enhance the film’s mix of supernatural horror and period drama, most famously in the vivid juke joint scene, where she fuses blues music, supernatural elements, and emotional intensity to create a pivotal, otherworldly atmosphere.
• Claudio Miranda’s cinematography in F1: The Movie expertly captures the intensity of Formula 1 racing with dynamic angles that emphasize speed and danger, immersing viewers in the cockpit’s thrilling point-of-view while grounding the spectacle in emotional character moments. Miranda won the Oscar for Life of Pi (2013) and was nominated once before that for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (2008).
• Based on Alice Brooks’ work in Wicked and the Wicked For Good trailer, we can anticipate her approach in the sequel. While Wicked earned 10 Oscar nominations, Brooks was not nominated for Cinematography, with many fans and critics finding the lighting overly dark or muted, diminishing the vibrancy of the film’s sets and costumes. Still, those crafts (Production Design and Costume Design) won Oscars for Wicked, suggesting the lighting didn’t overshadow their impact all that much. The Wicked For Good trailer suggests Brooks may lean into brighter, more dynamic lighting to amplify the fantastical world, potentially resonating with Academy voters this time around.
• One of my favorite cinematographers, Linus Sandgren, who won the Oscar for La La Land (2016), will shoot Noah Baumbach’s Jay Kelly, likely bringing his vibrant, emotionally rich style to the fore.
• Masanobu Takayanagi, one of the most under-talked about DPs in the business, will work with Scott Cooper once again on Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere. The duo worked together on The Pale Blue Eye (2022), Hostiles (2017), Out of the Furnace (2013), and Black Mass (2015). The guy’s resume is outstanding – Spotlight (2015), Stillwater (2021), The Grey (2011), Warrior (2011), Silver Linings Playbook (2012), are a few of his other credits. Would love to see him nominated this year.
• A quartet of former two-time nominees include Darius Khondji, who’s behind the camera for Josh Safdie’s new Timothée Chalamet vehicle, Marty Supreme as well as Ari Aster’s Eddington; Łukasz Żal, who will be credited for Chloé Zhao’s Hamnet; Dion Beebe, who won the Oscar for Memoirs of a Geisha (2005), shot Antoine Fuqua’s Michael Jackson biopic, Michael; and Jeff Cronenweth is the DP for Tron: Ares.

These cinematographers, from seasoned veterans to innovative newcomers, bring striking visuals to the 2025 Oscar race for Best Cinematography. The predictions charts below highlight my first picks for the contenders in Cinematography, alongside updated predictions for Best Picture, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor, and Supporting Actress.

How I did last year: Correctly predicted The Brutalist. Nominations – 4/5 (missed Emilia Pérez, had Conclave)

On the Radar:

1. Darius Khondji (Marty Supreme)
2. Łukasz Żal (Hamnet)
3. Linus Sandgren (Jay Kelly)
4. Alice Brooks (Wicked: For Good)
5. Paul Thomas Anderson and Michael Bauman (One Battle After Another) 
6. Russell Carpenter (Avatar: Fire and Ash)
7. James Friend (Ballad of a Small Player)
8. Kasper Tuxen (Sentimental Value)
9. Bruno Delbonnel (The Phoenician Scheme)
10. Matthew Libatique (Is This Thing On?)

On the Radar:

1. F1: The Movie (Apple Original Films/Warner Bros.)
2. The Ballad of a Small Player (Netflix)
3. Avatar: Fire and Ash (20th Century Studios)
4. The Smashing Machine (A24)
5. Jay Kelly (Netflix)
6. The Lost Bus (Apple Original Films)
7. It Was Just an Accident (NEON)
8. Is This Thing On? (Searchlight Pictures)
9. Rental Family (Searchlight Pictures)
10. Nouvelle Vague (Netflix)
11. Anemone (Focus Features)
12. Roofman (Paramount Pictures)
13. A House of Dynamite (Netflix)
14. The History of Sound (MUBI)
15. Kiss of the Spider Woman (Lionsgate/Roadside Attractions)
16. Father, Mother, Sister, Brother (MUBI)
17. A Big, Bold, Beautiful Journey (Sony Pictures)
18. Highest 2 Lowest (A24/Apple Original Films)
19. Eternity (A24)
20. Mother Mary (A24)

On the Radar:

1. Emma Stone (Bugonia)
2. Amanda Seyfried (Ann Lee)
3. June Squibb (Eleanor the Great)
4. Tessa Thompson (Hedda)
5. Sydney Sweeney (Christy Martin Biopic)

How I did last year: Correctly predicted Adrien Brody to win. Nominations – 5/5

On the Radar:

1. Colin Farrell (The Ballad of a Small Player) 
2. Daniel Day-Lewis (Anemone)
3. George Clooney (Jay Kelly)
4. Matthew McConaughey (The Lost Bus)
5. Paul Mescal (Hamnet)

How I did last year: Correctly predicted Zoë Saldaña. Nominations – 4/5 (had Jamie Lee Curtis, missed Monica Barbaro)

On the Radar:

1. Emily Blunt (The Smashing Machine)
2. Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value)
3. Tilda Swinton (The Ballad of a Small Player)
4. Jennifer Lopez (Kiss of the Spider Woman)
5. Gwyneth Paltrow (Marty Supreme)

How I did last year: Correctly predicted Kieran Culkin. Nominations – 5/5

On the Radar:

1. Adam Sandler (Jay Kelly)
2. Josh O’Connor (The History of Sound)
3. Jeffrey Wright (Highest 2 Lowest)
4. Andrew Scott (Blue Moon)
5. Michael Stuhlbarg (After the Hunt)

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Mark Johnson

Mark Johnson has been a prominent voice in film coverage and the Oscar race since 2009. He launched his career with his own website, Award Contenders, before joining forces with Clayton Davis at Awards Circuit from 2011 to 2020. After continuing his insightful work at Awards Daily from 2020 to 2024, Mark now contributes to both The Contending and AwardsWatch. His renowned Oscar predictions column, The Awards Alchemist (formerly Good As Gold), has solidified his reputation in the industry. A member of the Critics Choice Association, Mark regularly attends major film festivals, including Telluride, Nantucket, and Middleburg, offering in-depth analysis and predictions throughout awards season.

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