2026 Oscar Predictions: The Awards Alchemist Predicts the Winners – Part Two
Welcome to Part Two of my final predictions for the 98th Academy Awards. If you missed it, please check out Part One here.
In the first release, I covered the races that appear pretty stable. The second edition is where the ground gets a whole lot more chaotic.
These are the categories where the precursors start arguing with each other, where statistics point in different directions, and where the phrase “locked” has a habit of aging poorly. Outside of statistics, these are the categories where momentum, passion, and timing can upend a perceived frontrunner. And, as we’ve seen in years like Moonlight and Parasite, sometimes the Academy simply decides it feels like doing something else.
We simply can’t go solely by the usual alchemy of pattern recognition. Some of this is just educated guesswork. The data is still useful, of course. The narratives still matter, as always. But certainty is all but fiction.
This is where Oscar night is going to get very interesting.
Let’s get right into it.
International Feature
Will win: Sentimental Value (Norway)
Could win: The Secret Agent (Brazil)
Should win: Sentimental Value
Nomination predictions score: 4/5 (missed The Voice of Hind Rajab, had No Other Choice)
This feels like a true two-horse race, and the category rarely produces surprises once the field narrows this clearly.
The Secret Agent marks Brazil’s fifth nomination in International Feature and arrives just one year after the country’s first win with I’m Still Here. It had a solid showing on nominations morning, landing nods for Picture, Actor (Moura), and Casting.
Sentimental Value represents Norway’s seventh nomination in the category, and its nomination haul suggests even broader Academy support. The film is nominated for Picture, Director, Actress (Reinsve), Supporting Actress (Fanning and Ibsdotter Lilleaas), Supporting Actor (Skarsgård), Original Screenplay, and Film Editing.
Norway is still searching for its first win here, and I believe that changes this weekend.
Casting
Will win: Francine Maisler (Sinners)
Could win: Cassandra Kulukundis (One Battle After Another)
Should win: Sinners
Nomination predictions score: 4/5 (missed The Secret Agent, had Sentimental Value)
The inaugural Oscar for Achievement in Casting arrives with no precedent to guide predictions. It is our first new category since Animated Feature in 2001.
According to the Academy, the award recognizes the casting director’s collaboration with the director and producers in selecting the film’s acting ensemble.
The key question is whether this category will behave like the Ensemble prize from the Screen Actors Guild. That award tends to recognize the overall strength of the cast’s performances, whereas the Oscar is meant to honor the creative process behind selecting those actors. With no historical data yet, meaningful trends will take several years to emerge. My early theory, however, is that in a tight two-horse Best Picture race such as this year, the casting Oscar may often land with the runner-up.
Sinners holds the strongest precursor resume here. It won Ensemble at the Screen Actors Guild Awards, the Casting/Ensemble prize at the Critics’ Choice Awards, also in its first year, and the Big Budget Feature (Drama) honor at the Artios Awards from the Casting Society.
One Battle After Another was ineligible for the Artios Awards because its casting director, Cassandra Kulukundis, is not a member of the Casting Society. Still, Sinners managed to defeat One Battle in the two places where they did go head-to-head.
The only other major precursor, the BAFTA Award for Best Casting, went to I Swear, which won’t be eligible until next year’s Oscars.
Film Editing
Will win: Andy Jurgensen (One Battle After Another)
Could win: Michael P. Shawver (Sinners)
Should win: Stephen Mirrione and Patrick J. Smith (F1)
Nomination predictions score: 4/5 (missed Sentimental Value, had Hamnet)
For a moment, I thought F1 might pull off a two-Oscar night with wins in Sound and Film Editing. That idea lost some steam when the ACE Eddie Awards split their top prizes between One Battle After Another and Sinners, with the latter beating F1 in the Drama category. ACE nominations arrived after the Oscar nominations were announced, but the winners were revealed before voting closed. In the last 33 years, one of the two ACE winners has gone on to win the Oscar 24 times.
Another stat worth considering in the preferential ballot era is the relationship between Sound and Film Editing. Since 2009, the Editing winner has been nominated for Sound 14 of the last 16 years. The only exceptions were Everything Everywhere All at Once (2022) and Anora (2024). From 2009 through 2019, when the Academy still had two Sound categories, the Editing winner also won at least one of them in 10 of 11 years, including five sweeps of both categories. Since Sound was consolidated into a single award, however, the overlap has weakened, with Editing and Sound matching only twice in the past five years. The statistical landscape has clearly shifted.
Editing also has a long association with Best Picture, though that link is often overstated. Only 10 of the last 23 Best Picture winners won Editing, although the last three Picture winners were able to pull off the double victory. What matters more is simply being nominated. In that same span, 21 of the 23 Best Picture winners were nominated for Editing. The only exceptions were Birdman and CODA.
All of which points back to the ACE winners. One Battle After Another and Sinners are also the two leading contenders for Best Picture. In a race this tight, the simplest strategy may be to back whichever of those two you believe is ultimately winning the top prize.
There is another historical wrinkle. Since Film Editing became an Oscar category in 1934, 38 films have won both Editing and Director. Only six of those failed to win Best Picture: A Place in the Sun (1951), Cabaret (1972), Born on the Fourth of July (1989), Saving Private Ryan (1998), Traffic (2000), and Gravity (2013).
F1 still has a slim path, however. Sports films have historically performed well in this category, with winners including The Pride of the Yankees (1942), National Velvet (1945), Body and Soul (1947), Champion (1949), Grand Prix (1966), Rocky (1976), Raging Bull (1980), and Ford v Ferrari (2019).
Supporting Actor
Will win: Sean Penn (One Battle After Another)
Could win: Delroy Lindo (Sinners)
Should win: Paul Mescal (Hamnet; not nominated)
Nomination predictions score: 4/5 (missed Lindo, had Mescal)
The Oscar for Supporting Actor is often presented early in the evening, which might offer a hint about what is taking Best Picture. Three of the last four Supporting Actor winners came from the Picture-winning film, so a win for Sean Penn would signal strength for One Battle After Another. Penn would also win his third Oscar, joining Walter Brennan, Ingrid Bergman, Jack Nicholson, Meryl Streep, Daniel Day-Lewis, and Frances McDormand with three acting wins, trailing only Katharine Hepburn, who has four. Any time the discussion comes up about anyone winning a third, it always feels hard for me to believe, but I said the same thing as I incorrectly bet against McDormand in 2020. And Sean Penn is an actor who fits seamlessly with those who have done it before him.
If momentum swings toward Sinners, we could see Delroy Lindo pull a major upset. Since SAG began, only one actor has won Supporting Actor without first taking at least one of SAG, BAFTA, Globes, or CCA: James Coburn in 1998 for Affliction. That makes an Oscar for Lindo extremely unlikely, especially as he failed to receive any nominations from those precursors. Coburn at least had a SAG nod. For Lindo to win, it would require both Sinners winning Best Picture and a dramatic late-season shift in voter sentiment.
Penn’s precursor wins mark the fifteenth time SAG and BAFTA have agreed on Best Supporting Actor. In the previous fourteen instances, thirteen went on to win the Oscar. The lone exception was Christopher Walken in 2002 for Catch Me if You Can, who lost to Chris Cooper in Adaptation.
Cinematography
Will win: Michael Bauman (One Battle After Another)
Could win: Autumn Durald Arkapaw (Sinners)
Should win: Adolpho Veloso (Train Dreams)
Nomination predictions score: 5/5
What should have been one of the most competitive categories on the ballot has produced a clear frontrunner. One Battle After Another boasts gorgeous cinematography, and after winning ASC, BSC, and BAFTA, the three most important precursors, it is difficult to bet against it here. It would be a worthy winner, even if I personally feel there were two stronger options in the lineup.
Autumn Durald Arkapaw’s work on Sinners immerses us in the expansive, haunting landscapes of the Mississippi Delta. Rich colors, dramatic lighting, and the use of long shadows create imagery that has yet to leave my mind. Her win would also be historic, as she would become the first woman to take this prize. I have Sinners finishing runner-up in 11 categories, and it’s hard to imagine a film coming that close that many times without breaking through in one or two of those close races. This could easily be one of them.
I might have said somewhere that Adolpho Veloso’s work on Train Dreams is the most beautiful cinematography of the year. It pains me that he is unlikely to win, but that’s the way it crumbles sometimes, cookie-wise. His use of natural light and golden-hour glow captures the raw, organic beauty of the Pacific Northwest while reflecting the quiet struggles of the man at its center. The result is poetic and breathtaking. I could happily talk about it for hours.
In the end, though, predictions require separating head from heart. And it is not as if Michael Bauman’s work on One Battle After Another is lacking in distinction. The film’s textured, grainy aesthetic and the way Bauman captures the kinetic energy of its car chase evokes the gritty immediacy of one of my favorite movies: The French Connection. In a category this strong, whoever wins will have earned it.
Before we wrap with the three most challenging Oscars, let’s get the pesky short films out of the way. For someone who relies heavily on data and trends, the shorts will always be the bane of my existence, as you can see from my nomination predictions score in each category. Last year, I went 0/3 with the shorts, despite seeing all 45 shortlisted films.
Live Action Short
Will win: Two People Exchanging Saliva
Could win: The Singers
Should win: Two People Exchanging Saliva
Nomination predictions score: 1/5 (missed Butcher’s Stain, A Friend of Dorothy, Jane Austen’s Period Drama, and The Singers, had Rock, Paper, Scissors, The Boy with White Skin, The Pearl Comb, and Beyond Silence)
Animated Short
Will win: Butterfly
Could win: Any of the five
Should win: The Girl Who Cried Pearls
Nomination predictions score: 3/5 (missed Forevergreen and The Three Sisters, had Snow Bear and I Died in Irpin)
Documentary Short Subject
Will win: All the Empty Rooms
Could win: Any of the five
Should win: Armed Only with a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud
Nomination predictions score: 3/5 (missed Children No More: “Were and Are Gone” and Perfectly A Strangeness, had Cashing Out and All the Walls Came Down)
Supporting Actress
Will win: Amy Madigan (Weapons)
Could win: Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another) or Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners)
Should win: Amy Madigan (Weapons)
Nomination predictions score: 4/5 (had Odessa A’zion, missed Elle Fanning)
What do you do with a race this scattered? Madigan won SAG and CCA. Taylor took the Globe. Mosaku claimed BAFTA, though some have dismissed that result as home-field advantage since she is British-Nigerian. Madigan is the sole nominee from her film, while Taylor and Mosaku appear in the year’s two biggest contenders.
One lesson I have tried to internalize over the past 17 years is that timing matters with precursors. It is not just who wins, but when they win. Madigan bookended the season with CCA and SAG, and SAG landed squarely in the middle of the window when Academy members were voting.
That makes the SAG result particularly persuasive here. In a race this fractured, you have to pick a signal to trust, and that is the one I am following.
It helps that SAG has been the most reliable precursor in this category over the past 16 years. In that span, the only Supporting Actress winner who did not win SAG first was Regina King for If Beale Street Could Talk (2018). She was not even nominated at SAG or BAFTA. Madigan also missed the BAFTA lineup this year, though she did appear on the longlist.
If Madigan wins, she would become the first Supporting Actress winner whose film received no other nominations since Penélope Cruz won for Vicky Cristina Barcelona (2008).
Interestingly, the only nominee to appear at all four major precursors, SAG, BAFTA, Globes, and CCA, was Taylor.
Documentary Feature
Will win: Mr. Nobody Against Putin
Could win: The Perfect Neighbor
Should win: The Tale of Silyan (not nominated)
Nomination predictions score: 1/5 (missed The Alabama Solution, Come See Me in the Good Light, Cutting Through Rocks, and Mr. Nobody Against Putin; had Cover-Up, Apocalypse in the Tropics, 2000 Meters to Andriivka, and My Undesirable Friends: Part 1 – Last Air in Moscow)
Documentary Feature was my most disastrous category predicting the nominees this year. The only film I got right, The Perfect Neighbor, was the one I had the least confidence in making the lineup. Once it did, it immediately felt like the obvious winner: widely seen, widely discussed, and easily accessible on Netflix.
Then the precursors happened. My Mom Jayne: A Film by Mariska Hargitay won PGA, 2000 Meters to Andriivka took DGA, and The Tale of Silyan claimed the IDA. None of them are nominated here.
That leaves The Perfect Neighbor (the Critics Choice winner) facing its strongest challenge from Mr. Nobody Against Putin, which won BAFTA. Recent history suggests current events matter here. Two of the last three winners, Navalny and 20 Days in Mariupol, dealt directly with the Russia-Ukraine war. Last year’s winner, No Other Land, examined Palestinian displacement in the West Bank. Timeliness clearly resonates in this category.
With tensions rising again in the Middle East following U.S. strikes on Iran, a film like Mr. Nobody Against Putin, which exposes wartime indoctrination inside Russia during the invasion of Ukraine, may feel especially urgent to voters. The Perfect Neighbor is a powerful but more localized American story, while this category has often leaned toward documentaries that capture the human-rights dimensions of global conflict. And with the expansion of international voters, I wonder if we might see an upset here.
In a race this tight, I’m going to draw outside the lines and wager that international voters help push Putin across the finish line.
Lead Actor
Will win: Michael B. Jordan (Sinners)
Could win: Any of the five
Should win: Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another)
Nomination predictions score: 5/5
Similar logic applies here as it did with Madigan. The timing of SAG could prove decisive.
Jordan won SAG. Chalamet and Wagner Moura split the Globes. Chalamet took CCA. Robert Aramayo won BAFTA for a film that will not even be eligible until next year’s Oscars. Thanks for nothing, BAFTA.
Leonardo DiCaprio leads the Best Picture frontrunner. Ethan Hawke is a widely respected veteran. In truth, any of the five could win and it would not feel shocking.
So, let’s do the process of elimination.
Moura is the only nominee who missed any of the big four precursors, appearing only at the Globes, which he won over Jordan.
Hawke is the only Best Actor nominee this year whose film, Blue Moon, isn’t up for Best Picture. If he wins, he’ll be the first in 72 years to beat four contenders from Best Picture nominees. The last to do it? William Holden for Stalag 17.
DiCaprio has had a somewhat uneven history with the Academy, missing nominations many expected and needing five tries before finally winning. That being said, if One Battle After Another wins Best Picture, DiCaprio will have three credited appearances in Best Picture winners, tying the all-time record (with 16 others). He’s the dark horse to win here, especially if One Battle takes Picture.
Which leaves Chalamet, the season-long frontrunner, against Jordan, who like Madigan claimed the most important precursor at exactly the right moment.
Over the past twenty years, SAG and the Globes have been the two most reliable predictors in this category, missing only three times. Since the Globes award two winners each year, Drama and Comedy/Musical, the SAG stat carries a little more weight.
So yes, I am siding with the timing of SAG in all four acting categories. In their 30-year history, all four SAG winners matched with Oscar nine times: 2004, 2009, 2010, 2013, 2014, 2017, 2019, 2021, and 2022.
Picture
Will win: One Battle After Another
Could win: Sinners
Should win: Sinners
Nomination predictions score: 10/10
I’ve been hinting at the big one this whole time. While I don’t think it’s the most difficult race to predict, it felt right to save the grand finale for last. So let’s get to it.
The Big Board:
One Battle After Another dominated this year in ways that nearly place it alongside The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King (2003), Slumdog Millionaire (2008), Argo (2012), and Oppenheimer (2023) as the only films this century to sweep the major precursors: PGA, DGA, SAG, BAFTA, Globes, and CCA, with SAG being the only blemish on One Battle’s road to Oscar. Even with it falling just short of being a sweeper, this still feels like the tightest Best Picture race in years. I’ll be rooting for Sinners, hoping the extended voting window and the late impact of SAG make the difference. But how do you bet against the film that won everything except SAG Ensemble? I simply cannot.
Along with PGA, DGA, BAFTA, Globes, CCA, ACE, WGA, and five additional guilds, One Battle After Another also picked up BSC, the Scripter, both the New York and Los Angeles critics, the National Board of Review, and the Gotham Awards, all while landing a SAG Ensemble nomination. I could throw a dozen historical statistics at you, but only one really matters: no film has ever lost Best Picture with a resume like that.
The closest comparison I can find is Apollo 13, which won PGA, DGA, and SAG but ultimately lost Best Picture to Braveheart (1995). Even that isn’t close to an apples-to-apples comparison.
Yes, Sinners set a new Academy record with 16 nominations, surpassing the previous mark of 14 held by All About Eve (1950), Titanic (1997), and La La Land (2016). But it’s not as though One Battle After Another is trailing with a modest showing. Thirteen nominations is an enormous haul. Leading the nominations is not always a good omen anyway. Only seven of the last twenty films to top the nomination count went on to win Best Picture.
If Sinners wins, it would mark only the third time in the past twenty years that I’ve been wrong about Best Picture, joining Moonlight and Parasite as blemishes on an otherwise strong track record. Both victories felt shocking in the moment, though we knew going in that La La Land and 1917 had vulnerabilities. Still, La La Land tying the all-time nominations record made its loss unprecedented.
And while it surprised me then, it wouldn’t surprise me now if Sinners pulled it off. In fact, there’s a sizable part of me that expects it might.
After all, Sinners has a formidable resume of its own. Along with shattering the nominations record, it won SAG Ensemble, WGA, ACE, and five additional guilds. That combination of precursor wins has never lost Best Picture either.
Something’s gotta give.
The thing about shocking Best Picture losses, whether it was Brokeback Mountain, La La Land, 1917, or any other presumed frontrunner that ultimately fell short, is that they almost always break the very patterns we rely on to predict the race. When they happen, they don’t resemble anything that came before them. That’s why people spend so much time searching for historical parallels, or arguing that none exist. But that exercise misses the point. I keep hearing reasons why One Battle After Another isn’t La La Land or isn’t 1917, and those arguments are thoughtful and well made. Yet they overlook the one strand of DNA every shocking Best Picture upset shares. When the favorite loses, it doesn’t look like history repeating itself. It looks like history being rewritten. If Sinners pulls this off, the common thread will be the same as those other stunners. It will be unprecedented.
With that, let’s wrap things up with a complete breakdown of my predictions. I have placed an asterisk (*) next to anything I would flip to Sinners if I was predicting it to win Best Picture.
Picture*: One Battle After Another
Director: Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another)
Actor: Michael B. Jordan (Sinners)
Actress: Jessie Buckley (Hamnet)
Supporting Actor*: Sean Penn (One Battle After Another)
Supporting Actress: Amy Madigan (Weapons)
Adapted Screenplay: One Battle After Another
Original Screenplay: Sinners
Casting: Sinners
Cinematography*: One Battle After Another
Costumes: Frankenstein
Editing*: One Battle After Another
Makeup/Hairstyling: Frankenstein
Production Design: Frankenstein
Score: Sinners
Song: “Golden” (KPop Demon Hunters)
Sound*: F1
Visual Effects: Avatar: Fire and Ash
Animated Feature: KPop Demon Hunters
Doc Feature: Mr. Nobody Against Putin
International Feature: Sentimental Value
Animated Short: Butterfly
Doc Short: All the Empty Rooms
Live Action Short: Two People Exchanging Saliva
And now we wait for the envelopes.
2026 Oscar Predictions: The Awards Alchemist Predicts the Winners – Part Two 
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