2026 Oscar Predictions: The Awards Alchemist’s First Look at the 98th Academy Awards

Every year, post-Oscar Sunday, I experience a familiar cycle: a brief withdrawal, a period of reflection on what I got right (or wrong) in my predictions, and finally, the process of moving on to the next awards season. And here we are again.

As I mentioned in my final predictions article, the 97th Academy Awards was one of the toughest races to call in my 16 years of covering the Oscars online. I ended up with 16 correct picks out of 23 categories – better than my all-time low of 16 out of 24 in 2015’s Spotlight year. That score placed me eighth among 38 pundits in my debut year as a Gold Derby expert. Not perfect, but not bad either.

The biggest story of the night was Anora’s near-sweep, winning five of its six nominations. The only above-the-line category I missed was Mikey Madison for Best Actress, along with its win in Editing (which Erik astutely predicted). Erik’s bold call gave him the edge over me by one correct pick – so, kudos to him.

Despite Anora’s dominance, I was curious about how it would be remembered. To gauge its standing beyond the Oscar bubble, I ran a poll on X asking voters to rank the five best films of the past 15 years (2010-2024). With 130 responses, here were the consensus top ten:

1. The Social Network (2010) – 45 votes
2. Parasite (2019) – 44
3. Mad Max: Fury Road (2015) – 26
4. La La Land (2016) – 25
5. Oppenheimer (2023) – 24
6. Interstellar (2014) – 17
7. Inception (2010) – 17
8. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (2019) – 15
9. The Tree of Life (2011) – 14
10. Whiplash (2014) – 13

Parasite and Oppenheimer are the only Best Picture winners over the last 15 years to make the top ten.

Also receiving double-digit votes and just missing the top ten was The Wolf of Wall Street (2013; 11 votes), Moonlight (2016; 10), and Dune: Part Two (2024; 10). 

Rounding out the top 20 of the last 15 years: Arrival (2016) and Get Out (2017) with nine votes; Top Gun: Maverick (2022), The Master (2012), Boyhood (2014), and Birdman (2014) with eight votes; and Call Me By Your Name (2017) with seven votes. 

Eleven other films received five or six votes, and a total of 113 different movies were recognized by at least one person.

Do you want to guess what movie received exactly zero mentions from these contributors? 

Anora.

I found it fascinating that, despite the advantage of recency bias, not a single person out of 130 voters included Anora in their top five. And before you say that perhaps it is too soon, consider that Conclave, The Brutalist, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, Wicked: Part One, Nickel Boys, and The Substance all received at least one vote, and Dune: Part Two received ten. 

Sometimes, winning Best Picture is about capturing the moment – even if that moment fades quickly.

Predicting the next Oscar race this early is, admittedly, a fool’s errand. Most early predictions won’t pan out, but that’s part of the fun. As Groucho Marx said, “If you’re not having fun, you’re doing something wrong.”

A disclaimer, first, if you will. 

The Oscar race has become increasingly international, with Cannes playing an outsized role in shaping contenders. Predicting domestic films is tough enough, given the uncertainties around release dates and distribution. Forecasting international contenders is even trickier, as many titles are still unknown. While I anticipate two or three international films making the Best Picture lineup, this early preview will primarily focus on films with more established trajectories.

How has the alchemy performed the last couple of years?

In 2023, I picked Oppenheimer as my frontrunner in March and never wavered. The only other time I went wire-to-wire with a correct pick was 12 Years a Slave in 2013. In 2024, I had Conclave in the top spot from March until early February 2025, when I reluctantly switched to Anora after its big weekend taking three major precursors (CCA/DGA/PGA). At that point, after almost 11 months with Conclave out front, I unwillingly made the move to Anora. 

So, only three films have sat in my top spot for the past two years. Two of them won, the other was arguably the runner-up this year (Conclave won SAG Ensemble and BAFTA Picture. No film outside of Anora has nearly the precursor weight of those two wins).

Nominations-wise, I correctly predicted five out of ten in 2023: Oppenheimer, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Poor Things, and Past Lives. Last year, I had three out of ten: Conclave, Dune: Part Two, and Nickel Boys. 

Let’s get into the alchemy of predicting from this far out. There are four key factors I look at:

1. Director pedigree
2. Cast strength
3. Thematic relevance (zeitgeist and subject matter)
4. Recent trends

Director Pedigree: In recent years, this has mattered a bit less for the Best Director field – we had five first-time Best Director nominees this year. To find the last time that happened, however, you have to go back 27 years to the 70th Academy Awards. That being said, the Picture field is what we are focusing on, and having a well-respected director at the helm of a film has helped many campaigns over the hump into a Picture nominee.  

This year, we have films from past Oscar-winning directors: James Cameron (Avatar: Fire and Ash), Guillermo del Toro (Frankenstein), Chloe Zhao (Hamnet), and Kathryn Bigelow (Untitled White House thriller).

There are also films from past nominees: Yorgos Lanthimos (Bugonia), Richard Linklater (who has both Blue Moon and Nouvelle Vague), Darren Aronofsky (Caught Stealing), Spike Lee (Highest 2 Lowest), Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another), Wes Anderson (The Phoenician Scheme), Bradley Cooper (Is This Thing On?), and Paul Greengrass (The Lost Bus), to name a few.

And intriguing projects from esteemed auteurs: Luca Guadagnino (After the Hunt), Edward Berger (The Ballad of a Small Player), Celine Song (Materialists), Noah Baumbach (Jay Kelly), Joseph Kosinski (F1), Maggie Gyllenhaal (The Bride), Mona Fastvold (Ann Lee), Scott Cooper (Deliver Me From Nowhere), Ari Aster (Eddington), Park Chan-wook (No Other Choice), and Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value). 

Cast strength: Since 2009, 68% of the 300 acting nominees came from Best Picture nominated films. Additionally, 81.3% of the 75 SAG Ensemble nominees also received Best Picture nominations. A strong cast boosts a film’s Oscar chances significantly.

Some star-studded ensembles this year include:

After the Hunt – Julia Roberts, Ayo Edebiri, Andrew Garfield, Michael Stuhlbarg, and Chloe Sevigny.

A Big, Bold, Beautiful Journey – Colin Farrell, Margot Robbie, Phoebe Waller-Bridge, Hamish Linklater, Lily Rabe, Billy Magnussen, and Jodie Turner-Smith.

The Bride! – Jessie Buckley, Christian Bale, Penelope Cruz, Annette Bening, John Magaro, Peter Sarsgaard, and Jake Gyllenhaal.

Die, My Love – Jennifer Lawrence, Robert Pattinson, LaKeith Stanfield, Sissy Spacek and Nick Nolte.

The Gallerist – Sterling K. Brown, Jenna Ortega, Natalie Portman, Da’Vine Joy Randolph, Catherine Zeta-Jones, Zach Galifianakis, Daniel Bruhl, and Charli XCX.

Jay Kelly – George Clooney, Adam Sandler, Laura Dern, Billy Crudup, Isla Fisher, Eve Hewson, Emily Mortimer, Riley Keough, Patrick Wilson, Greta Gerwig, Jim Broadbent, Stacy Keach, and Josh Hamilton.

One Battle After Another – Leonardo DiCaprio, Sean Penn, Regina Hall, Alana Haim, Teyana Taylor, Benicio Del Toro, and Wood Harris

The Phoenician Scheme – Bill Murray, Scarlett Johansson, Tom Hanks, Bryan Cranston, Rupert Friend, Benecio Del Toro, Benedict Cumberbatch, Michael Cera, Jeffrey Wright, Charlotte Gainsbourg, and Hope Davis.

Wicked for Good – Cynthia Erivo, Ariana Grande, Jeff Goldblum, Michelle Yeoh, Ethan Slater, Jonathan Bailey, Marissa Bode, and Peter Dinklage.

Thematic relevance (zeitgeist and subject matter): One of the biggest challenges this far out is predicting what will capture the zeitgeist of the year. The reason I backed Conclave last March was its connection to an election year – whether electing a pope or a president, politics were bound to dominate the conversation. When I read the book a couple of months later, my instincts were confirmed. While the film didn’t go on to win Best Picture, it remained relevant throughout the season.

So, which films could follow a similar path this year?

The first that comes to mind is Paul Greengrass’ The Lost Bus. With the devastating fires in California still fresh in public memory, a film about the deadliest wildfire in over a century – and the effort to survive and prevent future tragedies – seems primed to resonate with the Academy.

Cancel culture and allegations of misconduct have defined the past decade, making After the Hunt a timely contender. The story follows a professor at a crossroads when a student accuses her peer of something that could unearth her own dark secrets. Fear and accountability have become defining aspects of public discourse, and this film appears to lean into that climate.

Dramas about familial bonds always strike a chord, making titles like Anemone, Father, Mother, Sister, Brother, Hamnet, Is This Thing On?, Omaha, The Phoenician Scheme, The Roses, and Sentimental Value potential players.

Hollywood loves films about itself (showbiz and fame), so projects like Blue Moon, Deliver Me From Nowhere, Hedda, Late Fame, Magazine Dreams, Marty Supreme, Michael, Mother Mary, Nouvelle Vague, The Smashing Machine, and The Wizard of the Kremlin could all be in the mix.

Meanwhile, social change is another Academy-friendly theme, with The Bride, Kiss of the Spider Woman, and Monsanto likely tapping into that space.

Recent trends: Of course, beyond cultural relevance, it’s crucial to examine the Academy’s shifting voting body and the trends shaping recent winners.

As I noted in my earlier article (linked at the intro), AMPAS has made significant strides in diversifying its membership over the past decade. From 2000 to 2012, the Academy invited an average of 137 new members per year. Efforts to expand membership began ramping up prior to the #OscarsSoWhite controversy in 2015:

2011: 178 new members

2012: 176

2013: 276

2014: 271

2015: 322

Then came the backlash. When all 20 acting nominees were white for the second year in a row in 2016, AMPAS accelerated its push for inclusivity:

2016: 683 new members (a record at the time)
2017: 774 (new record)
2018: 928 (highest ever)
2019: 842
2020: 819
2021: 395
2022: 397
2023: 398
2024: 487

Since 2015, the Academy has nearly doubled in size, growing from roughly 5,765 members to around 10,910. Among these new members, approximately 44.8% are women, and 36.4% are people of color.

This transformation has influenced the kinds of films that win Best Picture.

When we look at the last four winners – excluding Oppenheimer – we notice key commonalities among Nomadland, CODA, Everything Everywhere All At Once, and Anora:

• All focus on underrepresented characters or communities (Nomadland’s older, nomadic workers; CODA’s exploration of deaf culture; Everything Everywhere’s multigenerational Asian-American immigrant perspective; and Anora’s story of a marginalized sex worker).
• All feature strong female leads (three of the four Picture winners also won Lead Actress)
• All originated outside the traditional Hollywood studio system, embracing indie or semi-indie sensibilities.
• All tell intimate, character-driven stories.
• Two of the four were directed by women.
• All gained traction at major film festivals (Nomadland at Venice, CODA at Sundance, Everything Everywhere at SXSW, Anora at Cannes).

Looking ahead, we can expect several 2025 contenders to check similar boxes.

A Big, Bold, Beautiful Journey – Kogonada directs this arthouse-leaning, character-driven story, with Margot Robbie potentially leading.

Die, My Love – Lynne Ramsay adapts Ariana Harwicz’s novel about a woman unraveling in rural isolation, starring Jennifer Lawrence.

Eleanor the Great – Scarlett Johansson’s directorial debut, starring June Squibb as a woman rebuilding her life in her 90s.

Klara and the Sun – Taika Waititi adapts Kazuo Ishiguro’s novel, exploring themes of outsiderhood and grief, starring Jenna Ortega and Amy Adams.

Other notable contenders that might meet this criteria: Late Fame, Mother Mary, Materialists, Sorry Baby, and The Lost Bus, plus possible festival breakouts like Hamnet, On Swift Horses, Rosemead, and The Roses.

Right now, I see two films as the strongest early contenders for Best Picture.

Sentimental Value – Directed by Joachim Trier (The Worst Person in the World), this international family dramedy features Renate Reinsve as an actress reconnecting with her estranged filmmaker father (Stellan Skarsgård). A story about family, the film industry, and personal reinvention, it has indie roots and a female lead, and will likely debut at Cannes under Neon’s banner, making it an instant threat.

Bugonia – Yorgos Lanthimos returns with a gender-flipped take on Save the Green Planet!, a cult-classic Korean sci-fi satire. Emma Stone stars as a high-powered pharmaceutical CEO kidnapped by conspiracy theorists convinced she’s an alien bent on world destruction. With Will Tracy (Succession, The Menu) writing the script, expect sharp satire exploring gender dynamics and power.

You could argue that Lanthimos has twice finished as a runner-up at the Oscars, with The Favourite (10 nominations, 1 win) and Poor Things (11 nominations, 4 wins). Both received nominations for Picture, Director, Editing, Screenplay, and won Lead Actress prizes for Olivia Colman and Emma Stone, respectively. His films have performed exceptionally well when embraced by the Academy, but will Bugonia be another Poor Things, or will it land closer to Kinds of Kindness?

The Academy has grown larger, younger, more international, and more diverse, meaning traditional Oscar bait may no longer guarantee a win. With that in mind, here are my early predictions for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards:

How I did last year: Correctly predicted Anora to win. Nominations – 8/10 (missed I’m Still Here and Nickel Boys; had A Real Pain and September 5)

Just Missed: 

1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (20th Century Studios)
2. The Lost Bus (Apple Original Films)
3. Jay Kelly (Netflix)
4. The Phoenician Scheme (Focus Features)
5. The Bride! (Warner Bros.)

On the Radar:

1. Pressure (Focus Features)
2. The Smashing Machine (A24)
3. The History of Sound (MUBI)
4. Is This Thing On? (Searchlight Pictures)
5. Untitled Kathryn Bigelow White House thriller (Netflix)
6. Father, Mother, Sister, Brother (MUBI)
7. The Life of Chuck (Neon)
8. A Big, Bold, Beautiful Journey (Sony Pictures)
9. Highest 2 Lowest (A24/Apple Original Films)
10. F1 (Apple Original Films/Warner Bros.)
11. Blue Moon (Sony Pictures Classics)
12. Anemone (Focus Features)
13. The Mastermind (MUBI)
14. Materialists (A24)
15. No Other Choice (TBD)
16. Ann Lee (TBD)
17. Caught Stealing (Sony Pictures)
18. Die, My Love (TBD)
19. Eddington (A24)
20. Eleanor the Great (Sony Pictures Classics)
21. Eternity (A24)
22. The Gallerist (TBD)
23. Klara and the Sun (Sony Pictures)
24. Late Fame (TBD)
25. The Luckiest Man in America (IFC Films)
26. Magazine Dreams (Searchlight Pictures)
27. Michael (Lionsgate)
28. Mother Mary (A24)
29. Rental Family (Searchlight Pictures)
30. The Rivals of Amziah King (TBD)
31. Roofman (Paramount Pictures)
32. The Roses (Searchlight Pictures)
33. Train Dreams (Netflix)
34. The Drama (A24)
35. The Last Disturbance of Madeline Hynde (TBD)
36. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (Netflix) 
37. Kiss of the Spider Woman (TBD)
38. The Secret Agent (TBD)

Likely to Move to 2026:

1. Madden (Amazon/MGM Studios)
2. Monsanto (Netflix)
3. Nouvelle Vague (TBD)
4. Paper Tiger (TBD)
5. Separate Rooms (TBD)
6. The Way of the Wind (TBD)
7. Wild Horse Nine (Searchlight Pictures)
8. The Wizard of the Kremlin (TBD)
9. The Entertainment System Is Down (A24)

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Mark Johnson

Mark Johnson has been a prominent voice in film coverage and the Oscar race since 2009. He launched his career with his own website, Award Contenders, before joining forces with Clayton Davis at Awards Circuit from 2011 to 2020. After continuing his insightful work at Awards Daily from 2020 to 2024, Mark now contributes to both The Contending and AwardsWatch. His renowned Oscar predictions column, The Awards Alchemist (formerly Good As Gold), has solidified his reputation in the industry. A member of the Critics Choice Association, Mark regularly attends major film festivals, including Telluride, Nantucket, and Middleburg, offering in-depth analysis and predictions throughout awards season.

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