29th Screen Actors Guild (SAG) predictions – Television: Will ‘Severance’ and ‘Abbott Elementary’ have a first season winners glow?

Tyler Doster February 22, 2023

The SAG awards are considered a heavy hitter when it comes to Oscar predictions. Pundits across websites and outlets pour over the winners of the film awards to decipher the possibilities that could unfold at the Oscars. When it comes to the television side of the awards, are they as big an indicator for prognostication for the Emmys as the film awards are for the Oscars?

Arguably, no. The Oscars are closer to the Screen Actors Guild awards than the Emmys — the Academy Awards are usually only within a month of the SAGs, while the Emmys are months after in the fall. While the SAG awards can give Emmy pundits slight indications of what performers’ peers think of their performances, the eligibility window is different; SAG uses a calendar year eligibility while the Emmys still use their traditional September-May calendar. So, different series are eligible for the SAG awards than they are at the Emmys later in the year. For example, this year’s Emmys will presumably shower The Last of Us in nominations, but the series beginning in January of this year deemed it ineligible for this year’s SAGs. In that way, it can be a little difficult to compare the winners of the two.

The nominees are mostly returning series, from favorites like Netflix’s The Crown to their other top contender, Ozark. Both series garnered nominations in the dramatic ensemble category while also grabbing at least one nom each in the Female Actor in a Drama Series category. AppleTV+’s buzziest series of 2022, Severance, also received a nomination for its ensemble while also grabbing attention for its leading man, Adam Scott (which marks Scott’s first individual SAG nomination). Zendaya also earned her first nomination for her much lauded performance in the second season of HBO’s Euphoria. She recently won her second Emmy for her performance in the HBO drama and could very well keep that going into the SAG awards. Her peers clearly respect the work she’s putting in and could result in her first SAG award.

HBO’s Emmy-winning and SAG-nominated The White Lotus moves from Limited Series to Drama Series in its second season as Jennifer Coolidge’s character Tanya showed up in the new season, thereby redefining the show’s category placement (it will also compete in drama for the Emmys later this year). She was nominated last year (as was first season’s Murray Bartlett) but lost to Hoyeon for Netflix’s Squid Game. Coolidge is nominated again this year.

On the comedy side, there are a few newcomers. Quinta Brunson earned her first SAG nomination this year for her wonderful work on Abbott Elementary, which also grabbed a nomination for ensemble in a comedy. Jenna Ortega was also nominated for her first SAG award this year for her performance in Netflix’s. Rachel Brosnahan is nominated for her third individual SAG award in comedy for her work on the fourth season of The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel. On the men’s side of things, Steve Martin and Martin Short are both nominated again this year for their performances in the second season of Hulu’s Only Murders in the Building. Anthony Carrigan joins co-star Bill Hader in the category, where they are both nominated for Barry. Rounding out the nominees for the men is Jeremy Allen White for his much-discussed performance in last summer’s breakout “comedy” series The Bear.

The two categories for limited series or television movie performance are a little different: where the female actor category seems almost too clear (with the win presumably going to Amanda Seyfried to round out her awards run for The Dropout), the male actor category doesn’t seem so easy. With Golden Globe winners Taron Egerton and Paul Walter Hauser both nominated for Black Bird and (Emmy winner) Evan Peters nominated for his performance in Dahmer, it could be a surprise that happens on Sunday night.

SAG, Oscar and Emmy-nominated actor Andrew Garfield will present the 58th SAG Life Achievement Award to SAG Award and Oscar-winning actress Sally Field. He previously worked with Field in The Amazing Spider-Man films.

Emily Blunt (The English), Jessica Chastain (George & Tammy), Don Cheadle (White Noise), Caleb McLaughlin (Stranger Things), Paul Mescal (Aftersun), and Ashley Park (Emily in Paris) will be among the presenters at the 29th Annual Screen Actors Guild Awards. The ceremony will be broadcast live on Netflix’s YouTube channel, YouTube.com/Netflix, Sunday, February 26 at 8 p.m. ET / 5 p.m. PT from the Fairmont Century Plaza in Los Angeles.

Here are my winner predictions in the television categories for the 29th Screen Actors Guild awards.

Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Drama Series

Predicted winner: Severance (AppleTV+)
Spoiler: The Crown (Netflix)

Other nominees: Better Call Saul (AMC), Ozark (Netflix), The White Lotus (HBO)

Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Comedy Series

Predicted winner: Abbott Elementary (ABC)
Spoiler: The Bear (FX)

Other nominees: Barry (HBO), Hacks (HBO Max), Only Murders in the Building (Hulu)

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Drama Series

Predicted winner: Zendaya as Rue Bennett – Euphoria (HBO)
Spoiler: Elizabeth Debicki as Princess Diana – The Crown (Netflix)

Other nominees: Jennifer Coolidge as Tanya Mcquoid-Hunt – The White Lotus (HBO), Julia Garner as Ruth Langmore – Ozark (Netflix), Laura Linney as Wendy Byrde – Ozark (Netflix)

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Drama Series

Predicted winner: Adam Scott as Mark – Severance (AppleTV+)
Spoiler: Bob Odenkirk as Saul Goodman – Better Call Saul (AMC)

Other nominees: Jonathan Banks as Mike Ehrmantraut – Better Call Saul, Jason Bateman as Marty Byrde – Ozark (Netflix), Jeff Bridges as Dan Chase – The Old Man (FX)

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Comedy Series

Predicted winner: Jean Smart as Deborah Vance – Hacks (HBO Max)
Spoiler: Quinta Brunson as Janine Teagues – Abbott Elementary (ABC)

Other nominees: Christina Applegate as Jen Harding – Dead to Me (Netflix), Rachel Brosnahan as Midge Maisel – The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (Amazon Prime Video), Jenna Ortega as Wednesday Addams – Wednesday (Netflix)

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Comedy Series

Predicted winner: Jeremy Allen White as Carmen Berzatto – The Bear (FX)
Spoiler: Bill Hader as Barry Berkman – Barry (HBO)

Other nominees: Anthony Carrigan as Noho Hank – Barry (HBO), Steve Martin as Charles Haden-Savage – Only Murders in the Building (hulu), Martin Short as Oliver Putnam – Only Murders in the Building (Hulu)

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Television Movie or Limited Series

Predicted winner: Amanda Seyfried as Elizabeth Holmes – The Dropout (Hulu)
Spoiler: Julia Garner as Anna Delvey – Inventing Anna (Netflix)

Other nominees: Emily Blunt as Cornelia Locke – The English (Amazon Prime Video), Jessica Chastain as Tammy Wynette – George & Tammy (Showtime), Niecy Nash-Betts as Glenda Cleveland – Dahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story (Netflix)

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Television Movie or Limited Series

Predicted winner: Evan Peters as Jeffrey Dahmer – Dahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story (Netflix)
Spoiler: Taron Egerton as Jimmy Keene – Black Bird (AppleTV+)

Other nominees: Steve Carrell as Alan Strauss – The Patient (Hulu), Sam Elliott as Shea Brennan – 1883 (Paramount+), Paul Walter Hauser as Larry Hall – Black Bird (AppleTV+)

Outstanding Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Television Series

Predicted winner: Andor (Disney+)
Spoiler: Stranger Things (Netflix)

Other nominees: The Boys (Amazon Prime Video), House of the Dragon (HBO), The Lord of the Rings: The Rings of Power (Amazon Prime Video)

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Tyler Doster

Tyler is the TV Awards Editor for AwardsWatch and from Tuscaloosa, Alabama. He’s been obsessed with movies and the oscars since he was about 14. He enjoys reading, but even more, talking about Amy Adams more and will, at any given moment, bring up her Oscar snub for Arrival. The only thing he spends more time on than watching TV is sitting on Twitter. If you ever want to discuss the movie Carol at length, he’s your guy. You can find Tyler at @wordswithtyler