30th Gotham Awards nominations predictions: expect ‘Minari,’ ‘Nomadland, ‘One Night in Miami’ to score

Awards season is officially upon us as the IFP Gotham Awards will be announcing their nominations on Thursday, kicking off an extra long season that starts now and goes all the way until the Oscars at the end of April 2021. Buckle up.

The Gotham Awards this year have aligned themselves with the extended eligibility that the Oscars established (February 28, 2021) so what can we expect to see with nominations coming so early and a handful of films still undated and/or unseen? I expect A24’s Minari to play well with the very small nominating committees (usually no more than five or more jury members), as well as Searchlight’s Nomadland, Amazon’s One Night in Miami and Netflix, who dominated the wins here last year, should show up with The 40-Year Old Version and I’m Thinking of Ending Things.

The Independent Filmmaker Project’s 30^th IFP Gotham Awards will take place on Monday, January 11, 2021, making them the first ceremony of the awards season. The IFP Gotham Awards is one of the leading honors for independent film and media, providing critical early recognition to groundbreaking independent films and their writers, directors, producers, and actors with ten competitive awards categories. Similar to the Independent Spirit Awards, the Gotham Awards recognize films with budgets under $35M.

They’ve also two television categories: Breakthrough Series (Long Form) and Breakthrough Series (Short Form).

Here are my predictions for the 30th IFP Gotham Awards nominations.

Best Feature

• First Cow (A24)
• Minari (A24)
• Never Rarely Sometimes Always (Focus Features)
• Nomadland (Searchlight)
• One Night in Miami (Amazon Studios)

Watch out for: His House (Netflix), I’m Thinking of Ending Things (Netflix), The Nest (IFC Films), Nine Days (Sony Pictures Classics), Kajillionaire (Focus Features), Shirley (NEON)

Best Actor

• Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal
• Winston Duke, Nine Days
• John Magaro, First Cow
• Bill Murray, On the Rocks
• Steven Yeun, Minari

Watch out for: Jude Law, The Nest; Leslie Odom, One Night in Miami; David Strathairn, Nomadland; Chris Abbott, Black Bear; Jesse Plemmons, I’m Thinking of Ending Things

Best Actress

• Nicole Beharie, Miss Juneteenth
• Julia Garner, The Assistant
• Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman
• Frances McDormand, Nomadland
• Elisabeth Moss, Shirley

Watch out for: Carrie Coon, The Nest; Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit; Jessie Buckley, I’m Thinking of Ending Things; Wunmi Mosaku, His House; Aubrey Plaza, Black Bear; Youn Yuh-jung, Minari

Best Screenplay

• First Cow
• I’m Thinking of Ending Things
• Minari
• Never Rarely Sometimes Always
• Nomadland

Watch out for: The 40-Year Old Version, Kajillionaire, The Nest, On the Rocks, One Night in Miami, Palm Springs

Bingham Ray Breakthrough Director

• Kitty Green, The Assistant
• Radha Blank, The 40-Year Old Version
• Remi Weekes, His House
• Regina King, One Night in Miami
• Darius Marder, Sound of Metal

Watch out for: Max Barbarkow, Palm Springs; Emma Seligman, Shiva Baby

Breakthrough Actor

• Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami
• Rahda Blank, The 40-Year Old Version
• Sidney Flannigan, Never Rarely Sometimes Always
• Orion Lee, First Cow
• Rachel Sennott, Shiva Baby
• Charlene Swankie, Nomadland

Watch out for: Orion Lee, First Cow; Cristin Milioti, Palm Springs; Paul Raci, Sound of Metal; Talia Ryder, Never Rarely Sometimes Always; Odessa Young, Shirley

Best Documentary

• All In: The Fight for Democracy
• Boys State
• Dick Johnson is Dead
• Totally Under Control
• Welcome to Chechnya

Watch out for: Crip Camp, Collective, Time, The Way I See It

Breakthrough Series (Over 40 Minutes)

• The Great (Hulu)
• Lovecraft Country (HBO)
• P-Valley (Starz)
• The Queen’s Gambit (Netflix)
• We Are Who We Are (HBO)

Breakthrough Series (Under 40 Minutes)

• Betty (HBO)
• Central Park (Apple TV+)
• I May Destroy You (HBO)
• Little America (Apple TV+)
• Never Have I Ever (Netflix)

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Erik Anderson

Erik Anderson is the founder/owner and Editor-in-Chief of AwardsWatch and has always loved all things Oscar, having watched the Academy Awards since he was in single digits; making lists, rankings and predictions throughout the show. This led him down the path to obsessing about awards. Much later, he found himself in film school and the film forums of GoldDerby, and then migrated over to the former Oscarwatch (now AwardsDaily), before breaking off to create AwardsWatch in 2013.

He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Hollywood Critics Association (HCA) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.

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