31st SAG Awards Predictions: Supporting Locks and Showdowns in Lead Actress, Lead Actor and the Top Cast Category

The 31st Screen Actors Guild Awards are this Sunday, marking the finale in the quartet of major guilds to have their say before the Oscars on March 2.

In the film categories, it’s probably a foregone conclusion that the supporting categories are pretty wrapped up for Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain) and Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez) but the lead acting and top cast awards have some room for possibilities.

At the top, Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture feels like a strong three-way race between Anora, Conclave and Wicked. While all three have nominations in individual categories, only Anora feels particularly competitive in its and maybe voters want to spread the wealth a bit. Conclave just won the BAFTA for Best Film but only Ralph Fiennes managed a solo SAG nomination (his co-star Isabella Rossellini did score that Oscar nom though) and the film was a big hit for critics’ groups giving out ensemble kudos. Wicked, with its record-tying five nominations feels like it’s got to be represented somewhere, right? The Banshees of Inisherin says hi. Unless Cynthia Erivo or Ariana Grande pull an upset, a win in this category falls in line with winners like Hidden Figures, The Help and Black Panther; big hits and big casts that cut a widely diverse cloth. But this could be where Anora shines and after winning PGA, DGA and WGA, it would put itself in elite territory to lock in all four, especially as our Best Picture Oscar frontrunner, which this award also likes to go to Oppenheimer, Everything Everywhere All At Once, Parasite, Birdman and Spotlight, who all picked this up first.

I see a lot of folks predicting Timothée Chalamet to triumph here for A Complete Unknown, and in the second-most nominated film, I get it. A SAG seven-time nominee, this is the 29-year old’s second lead nomination after 2017’s Call Me By Your Name and heading double box office successes in 2024 with A Complete Unknown and Dune: Part Two and Wonka in 2023, there isn’t a bigger actor in Hollywood right now, he’s a bonafide movie star. Playing Bob Dylan in a movie biopic is as baity as it gets, so why has he lost to Adrien Brody in The Brutalist every step of the way so far? Brody has bested Chalamet at the Golden Globes, Critics Choice and most recently at BAFTA but his film is on the opposite of Chalamet’s here as he’s the only nomination (but, like Conclave, earned more acting nods with Oscar). I’m going with Brody for the sweep here, who will earn his first SAG award if he wins. Back in 2002, when he became the youngest Best Actor Oscar winner in history at 29 (for The Pianist) he lost his SAG bid to Daniel Day-Lewis in Gangs of New York. While that’s a long time ago, some astute voters pay attention to nominees they’ve never rewarded or been able to reward before.

It’s been Mikey Madison (Anora) vs Demi Moore (The Substance) all season and this will be another showdown before the final fight. While Madison gave the most-lauded female performance nominated, Moore’s Critics Choice and Golden Globe wins have been the fuel that’s kept her comeback narrative fire burning bright. Brendan Fraser in The Whale is probably best comp for Moore here and overall and I think she’ll pull it out. What Oscar will do is another story. If Madison takes it, it’s a done deal. But…on the off chance that Erivo does pull off a surprise win here it will do one thing; show that there are cracks in the 1-2 punch of Madison and Moore and open the possibility of a spoiler win at the Academy Awards, not for Erivo, but for Fernanda Torres in I’m Still Here. While I think this is a far, far outside shot, if it happens the Oscar race – whose voting has already closed – will truly be a nail biter.

In television, it’s very likely we’ll see what we’ve seen since the Emmys; Shōgun, Hacks, The Bear and Baby Reindeer dominating. There could be some wiggle room for The Penguin and True Detective: Night Country, however.

The SAG Awards, produced by SAG-AFTRA and Silent House Productions, will stream live globally on Netflix on Sunday, February 23, 2025, at 8 p.m. ET / 5 p.m. PT from the Shrine Auditorium & Expo Hall and once again be hosted by SAG nominee Kristen Bell.

Here are my predictions of who will win and who could win.

FEATURE FILM

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role

ADRIEN BRODY / László Tóth – “THE BRUTALIST” (Predicted winner)
TIMOTHÉE CHALAMET / Bob Dylan – “A COMPLETE UNKNOWN” (Could win)
DANIEL CRAIG / William Lee – “QUEER”
COLMAN DOMINGO / Divine G – “SING SING”
RALPH FIENNES / Lawrence – “CONCLAVE”

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role

PAMELA ANDERSON / Shelly – “THE LAST SHOWGIRL”
CYNTHIA ERIVO / Elphaba – “WICKED”
KARLA SOFÍA GASCÓN / Emilia/Manitas – “EMILIA PÉREZ”
MIKEY MADISON / Ani – “ANORA” (Could win)
DEMI MOORE / Elisabeth – “THE SUBSTANCE” (Predicted winner)

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role

JONATHAN BAILEY / Fiyero – “WICKED”
YURA BORISOV / Igor – “ANORA” (Could win)
KIERAN CULKIN / Benji Kaplan – “A REAL PAIN” (Predicted winner)
EDWARD NORTON / Pete Seeger – “A COMPLETE UNKNOWN”
JEREMY STRONG / Roy Cohn – “THE APPRENTICE”

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role

MONICA BARBARO / Joan Baez – “A COMPLETE UNKNOWN”
JAMIE LEE CURTIS / Annette – “THE LAST SHOWGIRL”
DANIELLE DEADWYLER / Berniece – “THE PIANO LESSON”
ARIANA GRANDE / Galinda/Glinda – “WICKED” (Could win)
ZOE SALDAÑA / Rita – “EMILIA PÉREZ” (Predicted winner)

Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture

A COMPLETE UNKNOWN
MONICA BARBARO / Joan Baez
NORBERT LEO BUTZ / Alan Lomax
TIMOTHÉE CHALAMET / Bob Dylan
ELLE FANNING / Sylvie Russo
DAN FOGLER / Albert Grossman
WILL HARRISON / Bobby Neuwirth
ERIKO HATSUNE / Toshi Seeger
BOYD HOLBROOK / Johnny Cash
SCOOT MCNAIRY / Woody Guthrie
BIG BILL MORGANFIELD / Jesse Moffette
EDWARD NORTON / Pete Seeger

ANORA (Could win)
YURA BORISOV / Igor
MARK EYDELSHTEYN / Ivan
KARREN KARAGULIAN / Toros
MIKEY MADISON / Ani
ALEKSEY SEREBRYAKOV / Nikolai Zakharov
VACHE TOVMASYAN / Garnick

CONCLAVE
SERGIO CASTELLITTO / Tedesco
RALPH FIENNES / Lawrence
JOHN LITHGOW / Tremblay
LUCIAN MSAMATI / Adeyemi
ISABELLA ROSSELLINI / Sister Agnes
STANLEY TUCCI / Bellini

EMILIA PÉREZ
KARLA SOFÍA GASCÓN / Emilia/Manitas
SELENA GOMEZ / Jessi
ADRIANA PAZ / Epifania
ZOE SALDAÑA / Rita

WICKED (Predicted winner)
JONATHAN BAILEY / Fiyero
MARISSA BODE / Nessarose
PETER DINKLAGE / Dr. Dillamond
CYNTHIA ERIVO / Elphaba
JEFF GOLDBLUM / The Wonderful Wizard of Oz
ARIANA GRANDE / Galinda/Glinda
ETHAN SLATER / Boq
BOWEN YANG / Pfannee
MICHELLE YEOH / Madame Morrible

Outstanding Action Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture

DEADPOOL & WOLVERINE
DUNE: PART TWO (Could win)
THE FALL GUY (Predicted winner)
GLADIATOR II
WICKED

TELEVISION

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Television Movie or Limited Series

JAVIER BARDEM / Jose Menendez – “MONSTERS: THE LYLE AND ERIK MENENDEZ STORY”
COLIN FARRELL / Oz Cobb – “THE PENGUIN” (Predicted winner)
RICHARD GADD / Donny – “BABY REINDEER” (Could win)
KEVIN KLINE / Stephen Brigstocke – “DISCLAIMER”
ANDREW SCOTT / Tom Ripley – “RIPLEY”

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Television Movie or Limited Series

KATHY BATES / Edith Wilson – “THE GREAT LILLIAN HALL”
CATE BLANCHETT / Catherine Ravenscroft – “DISCLAIMER”
JODIE FOSTER / Det. Elizabeth Danvers – “TRUE DETECTIVE: NIGHT COUNTRY” (Predicted winner)
LILY GLADSTONE / Cam Bentland – “UNDER THE BRIDGE”
JESSICA GUNNING / Martha – “BABY REINDEER” (Could win)
CRISTIN MILIOTI / Sofia Falcone – “THE PENGUIN”

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Drama Series

TADANOBU ASANO / Kashigi Yabushige – “SHŌGUN”
JEFF BRIDGES / Dan Chase – “THE OLD MAN”
GARY OLDMAN / Jackson Lamb – “SLOW HORSES”
EDDIE REDMAYNE / The Jackal – “THE DAY OF THE JACKAL” (Could win)
HIROYUKI SANADA / Yoshii Toranaga – “SHŌGUN” (Predicted winner)

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Drama Series

KATHY BATES / Madeline Matlock – “MATLOCK” (Could win)
NICOLA COUGHLAN / Penelope Featherington – “BRIDGERTON”
ALLISON JANNEY / Vice President Grace Penn – “THE DIPLOMAT”
KERI RUSSELL / Kate Wyler – “THE DIPLOMAT”
ANNA SAWAI / Toda Mariko – “SHŌGUN” (Predicted winner)

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Comedy Series

ADAM BRODY / Noah Roklov – “NOBODY WANTS THIS” (Could win)
TED DANSON / Charles Nieuwendyk – “A MAN ON THE INSIDE”
HARRISON FORD / Paul – “SHRINKING”
MARTIN SHORT / Oliver Putnam – “ONLY MURDERS IN THE BUILDING”
JEREMY ALLEN WHITE / Carmen “Carmy” Berzatto – “THE BEAR” (Predicted winner)

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Comedy Series

KRISTEN BELL / Joanne – “NOBODY WANTS THIS”
QUINTA BRUNSON / Janine Teagues – “ABBOTT ELEMENTARY”
LIZA COLÓN-ZAYAS / Tina – “THE BEAR”
AYO EDEBIRI / Sydney Adamu – “THE BEAR” (Could win)
JEAN SMART / Deborah Vance – “HACKS” (Predicted winner)

Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Drama Series

BRIDGERTON (Could win)
GERALDINE ALEXANDER / Mrs. Wilson
VICTOR ALLI / John Stirling
ADJOA ANDOH / Lady Danbury
JULIE ANDREWS / Lady Whistledown
LORRAINE ASHBOURNE / Mrs. Varley
SIMONE ASHLEY / Kate Bridgerton
JONATHAN BAILEY / Anthony Bridgerton
JOE BARNES / Lord Wilding
JOANNA BOBIN / Lady Cowper
JAMES BRYAN / Nicky Mondrich
HARRIET CAINS / Philipa Featherington
BESSIE CARTER / Prudence Featherington
GENEVIEVE CHENNEOUR / Miss Livingston
DOMINIC COLEMAN / Lord Cowper
NICOLA COUGHLAN / Penelope Featherington
KITTY DEVLIN / Miss Stowell
HANNAH DODD / Francesca Bridgerton
DANIEL FRANCIS / Lord Marcus Anderson
RUTH GEMMELL / Violet Bridgerton
ROSA HESMONDHALGH / Rae
SESLEY HOPE / Miss Kenworthy
FLORENCE HUNT / Hyacinth Bridgerton
MARTINS IMHANGBE / Will Mondrich
MOLLY JACKSON-SHAW / Miss Hartigan
CLAUDIA JESSIE / Eloise Bridgerton
LORN MACDONALD / Albion Finch
JESSICA MADSEN / Cressida Cowper
EMMA NAOMI / Alice Mondrich
HANNAH NEW / Lady Tilley Arnold
LUKE NEWTON / Colin Bridgerton
CALEB OBEDIAH / Lord Cho
JAMES PHOON / Harry Dankworth
VINEETA RISHI / Lady Malhotra
GOLDA ROSHEUVEL / Queen Charlotte
HUGH SACHS / Brimsley
BANITA SANDHU / Miss Malhotra
LUKE THOMPSON / Benedict Bridgerton
WILL TILSTON / Gregory Bridgerton
POLLY WALKER / Lady Featherington
ANNA WILSON-JONES / Lady Livingston
SOPHIE WOOLLEY / Lady Stowell

THE DAY OF THE JACKAL
KHALID ABDALLA / Ulle Dag Charles
JON ARIAS / Álvaro
NICK BLOOD / Vince Pyne
ÚRSULA CORBERÓ / Nuria
CHARLES DANCE / Timothy Winthrop
BEN HALL / Damian Richardson
CHUKWUDI IWUJI / Osita Halcrow
PATRICK KENNEDY / Teddy
PUCHI LAGARDE / Marisa
LASHANA LYNCH / Bianca Pullman
ELEANOR MATSUURA / Zina Jansone
JONJO O’NEILL / Edward Carver
EDDIE REDMAYNE / The Jackal
SULE RIMI / Paul Pullman
LIA WILLIAMS / Isabel Kirby

THE DIPLOMAT
ALI AHN / Eidra Park
SANDY AMON-SCHWARTZ / Sandy
TIM DELAP / Byron
PENNY DOWNIE / Frances Munning
ATO ESSANDOH / Stuart Hayford
DAVID GYASI / Foreign Secretary Austin Dennison
CELIA IMRIE / Margaret Roylin
RORY KINNEAR / Prime Minister Nicol Trowbridge
PEARL MACKIE / Alysse
NANA MENSAH / Billie Appiah
GRAHAM MILLER / Neil Barrow
KERI RUSSELL / Kate Wyler
RUFUS SEWELL / Hal Wyler
ADAM SILVER / Howard
KENICHIRO THOMSON / Martin

SHŌGUN (Predicted winner)
SHINNOSUKE ABE / Buntaro
TADANOBU ASANO / Kashigi Yabushige
TOMMY BASTOW / Father Martin Alvito
TAKEHIRO HIRA / Ishido Kazunari
MOEKA HOSHI / Usami Fuji
HIROMOTO IDA / Lord Kiyama
COSMO JARVIS / John Blackthorne
HIROTO KANAI / Kashigi Omi
YUKI KURA / Yoshii Nagakado
TAKESHI KUROKAWA / Lord Ohno
FUMI NIKAIDO / Ochiba No Kata
TOKUMA NISHIOKA / Toda Hiromatsu
HIROYUKI SANADA / Yoshii Toranaga
ANNA SAWAI / Toda Mariko

SLOW HORSES
RUTH BRADLEY / Emma Flyte
TOM BROOKE / JK Coe
JAMES CALLIS / Claude Whelan
CHRISTOPHER CHUNG / Roddy Ho
AIMEE-FFION EDWARDS / Shirley Dander
ROSALIND ELEAZAR / Louisa Guy
SEAN GILDER / Sam Chapman
KADIFF KIRWAN / Marcus Longridge
JACK LOWDEN / River Cartwright
GARY OLDMAN / Jackson Lamb
JONATHAN PRYCE / David Cartwright
SASKIA REEVES / Catherine Standish
JOANNA SCANLAN / Moira Tregorian
KRISTIN SCOTT THOMAS / Diana Taverner
HUGO WEAVING / Frank Harkness
NAOMI WIRTHNER / Molly Doran
TOM WOZNICZKA / Patrice

Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Comedy Series

ABBOTT ELEMENTARY (Could win)

QUINTA BRUNSON / Janine Teagues
WILLIAM STANFORD DAVIS / Mr. Johnson
JANELLE JAMES / Ava Coleman
CHRIS PERFETTI / Jacob Hill
SHERYL LEE RALPH / Barbara Howard
LISA ANN WALTER / Melissa Schemmenti
TYLER JAMES WILLIAMS / Gregory Eddie

THE BEAR
LIONEL BOYCE / Marcus
LIZA COLÓN-ZAYAS / Tina
AYO EDEBIRI / Sydney Adamu
ABBY ELLIOTT / Natalie “Sugar” Berzatto
EDWIN LEE GIBSON / Ebraheim
COREY HENDRIX / Sweeps
MATTY MATHESON / Neil Fak
EBON MOSS-BACHRACH / Richard “Richie” Jerimovich
RICKY STAFFIERI / Theodore Fak
JEREMY ALLEN WHITE / Carmen “Carmy” Berzatto

HACKS (Predicted winner)
ROSE ABDOO / Josefina
CARL CLEMONS-HOPKINS / Marcus Vaughan
PAUL W. DOWNS / Jimmy Lusaque, Jr.
HANNAH EINBINDER / Ava Daniels
MARK INDELICATO / Damien
JEAN SMART / Deborah Vance
MEGAN STALTER / Kayla Schaeffer

ONLY MURDERS IN THE BUILDING
MICHAEL CYRIL CREIGHTON / Howard Morris
ZACH GALIFIANAKIS / Zach Galifianakis
SELENA GOMEZ / Mabel Mora
RICHARD KIND / Vince Fish
EUGENE LEVY / Eugene Levy
EVA LONGORIA / Eva Longoria
STEVE MARTIN / Charles-Haden Savage
KUMAIL NANJIANI / Rudy Thurber
MOLLY SHANNON / Bev Melon
MARTIN SHORT / Oliver Putnam

SHRINKING
HARRISON FORD / Paul
BRETT GOLDSTEIN / Louis
DEVIN KAWAOKA / Charlie
GAVIN LEWIS / Connor
WENDIE MALICK / Dr. Julie Baram
LUKITA MAXWELL / Alice
TED MCGINLEY / Derek
CHRISTA MILLER / Liz
JASON SEGEL / Jimmy
RACHEL STUBINGTON / Summer
LUKE TENNIE / Sean
MICHAEL URIE / Brian
JESSICA WILLIAMS / Gaby

Outstanding Action Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Television Series

THE BOYS
FALLOUT
HOUSE OF THE DRAGON
THE PENGUIN (Could win)
SHŌGUN (Predicted winner)

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Erik Anderson

Erik Anderson is the founder/owner and Editor-in-Chief of AwardsWatch and has always loved all things Oscar, having watched the Academy Awards since he was in single digits; making lists, rankings and predictions throughout the show. This led him down the path to obsessing about awards. Much later, he found himself in film school and the film forums of GoldDerby, and then migrated over to the former Oscarwatch (now AwardsDaily), before breaking off to create AwardsWatch in 2013.

He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Critics Choice Association (CCA), San Francisco Bay Area Film Critics Circle (SFBAFCC) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.

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