79th BAFTA Nomination Predictions: Expect Big Showings for ‘One Battle After Another,’ ‘Hamnet’ and ‘Sinners’
It’s a topsy-turvy season, with BAFTA nominations coming after Oscar nominations for the first time since 2001 (an era when the BAFTA Awards were also after the Academy Awards), but that makes it all the more fun.
With the Oscar nominations last week, we saw Sinners make Academy history with a record-setting 16 nominations, followed by One Battle After Another with 13. With both films likely set to earn big double-digit numbers at BAFTA, let’s set the stage.
What we have, in a post-Oscar nominations landscape, are the BAFTA longlists. But, as the Oscar longlists proved when Wicked: For Good showed up in eight and then got zero Oscar nominations, they are a guideline at best and not the rule of law. Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another earned 16 BAFTA mentions across 25 categories, more than any other film and the highest since the longlist round was re-introduced in 2021.
Right behind were Chloe Zhao’s Hamnet and Ryan Coogler’s Sinners, which earned 14 longlist spots each. Next was Josh Safdie’s Marty Supreme with 13, Yorgos Lanthimos’ Bugonia and Guillermo del Toro’s Frankenstein both receiving 12. Although, among those 12 nods for Frankenstein, one of which was not for Guillermo del Toro in Best Director, the same fate he suffered with Oscar nominations, where he missed. Like the Oscars, I expect all of these films to do some big numbers here at BAFTA as well. Bugonia and Hamnet could do even better here than with the Academy. With del Toro out of the director conversation, Yorgos Lanthimos is ready to pounce as a sixth nominee. Hamnet’s two big tech misses, Cinematography and Editing, could show up here but those are five-nominee slot categories so the film might be on the cusp.
With so many categories now using six slots as a default, it takes a bit of the game out of quite a few that had essentially a ‘locked’ four and then two films or performances that made up the 5-6 spots. Is this where Chase Infiniti (One Battle After Another) shows up after missing an Oscar nomination? Or does BAFTA mirror the Academy, still including Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue) but give us Jennifer Lawrence in Die My Love? Paul Mescal may have missed at the Oscars for Hamnet but that likely won’t happen here. Delroy Lindo, who made it in and was a part of Sinners’ all-time record, is longlisted here. They could both make it. Or, we could see something more of an old school BAFTA choice like Peter Mullan in I Swear, a film that could heavily benefit from the six-nominee slots elsewhere.
Looking at international titles, Sentimental Value grabbed eight spots here. The film earned nine Oscar nominations including Best Picture, Best Director for Joachim Trier and four acting nods for all of its main players, who all missed nominations from the SAG Actor Awards. I expect a near repeat here at BAFTA with the possible addition of Casting, which it missed with the Academy. Jafar Panahi’s Palme d’Or-winning It Was Just an Accident only managed two longlist mentions, original screenplay and film not in the English language, the same and only nominations it got with the Academy and what I expect to see replicated at BAFTA. The Secret Agent made the same lists as It Was Just an Accident, but surprisingly, lead star Wagner Moura was not on the acting list. This mirrors Fernanda Torres last year for I’m Still Here, who won the Golden Globe and was eventually Oscar-nominated, exactly like Moura. Sirāt, which had been growing in buzz recently, also managed just two, for casting and film in the English language, not even one for sound, where it landed a spot on the Oscar’s final five.
Last year, Conclave and Emilia Pérez led the BAFTA nominations after leading the longlist mentions.
This year’s Rising Star nominees are: Robert Aramayo, Miles Caton, Chase Infiniti, Archie Madekwe and Posy Sterling. This is voted on by the public and not the BAFTA membership.
BAFTA nominations will be announced on January 27 at 4:00am PT and the BAFTA Film Awards ceremony will take place February 22 at London’s Royal Festival Hall with Alan Cumming hosting for the first time.
Here are my predictions for 79th BAFTA Film Awards nominations.
BEST FILM (5)
- Hamnet
- Marty Supreme
- One Battle After Another
- Sentimental Value
- Sinners
Spoiler: Bugonia
Other contenders: The Ballad of Wallis Island, Frankenstein, I Swear, Nuremberg
OUTSTANDING BRITISH FILM (10)
- 28 Years Later
- Ballad of a Small Player
- The Ballad of Wallis Island
- Bridget Jones: Mad About the Boy
- The Choral
- Die My Love
- H Is for Hawk
- Hamnet
- I Swear
- Pillion
Spoiler: Warfare
Other contenders: Goodbye June, Mr. Burton, The Roses, Steve
OUTSTANDING DEBUT BY A BRITISH WRITER, DIRECTOR OR PRODUCER (5)
- My Father’s Shadow
- Pillion
- Urchin
- A Want in Her
- Wasteman
Spoiler: Mother Vera
Other contenders: The Ceremony, The Man in My Basement, Ocean With David Attenborough, The Shadow Scholars
DIRECTOR (6)
- Bugonia, Yorgos Lanthimos
- Hamnet, Chloé Zhao
- Marty Supreme, Josh Safdie
- One Battle After Another, Paul Thomas Anderson
- Sentimental Value, Joachim Trier
- Sinners, Ryan Coogler
Spoiler: Die My Love, Lynne Ramsay
Other contenders: A House of Dynamite, Kathryn Bigelow; Rental Family, Hikari; The Voice of Hind Rajab, Kaouther Ben Hania
LEADING ACTRESS (6)
- Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
- Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
- Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue
- Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another
- Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
- Emma Stone, Bugonia
Spoiler: Jennifer Lawrence, Die My Love
Other contenders: Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good; Andrea Riseborough, Dragonfly; Tessa Thompson, Hedda
LEADING ACTOR (6)
- Robert Aramayo, I Swear
- Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme
- Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another
- Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon
- Michael B. Jordan, Sinners
- Jesse Plemons, Bugonia
Spoiler: Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams
Other contenders: Russell Crowe, Nuremberg; Harry Melling, Pillion; Cillian Murphy, Steve
SUPPORTING ACTRESS (6)
- Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value
- Amy Madigan, Weapons
- Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners
- Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme
- Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
- Emily Watson, Hamnet
Spoiler: Odessa A’zion, Marty Supreme
Other contenders: Brenda Blethyn, Dragonfly; Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good; Carey Mulligan, The Ballad of Wallis Island
SUPPORTING ACTOR (6)
- Benicio Del Toro, One Battle After Another
- Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein
- Delroy Lindo, Sinners
- Paul Mescal, Hamnet
- Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
- Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
Spoiler: Peter Mullan, I Swear
Other contenders: Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly; Andrew Scott, Blue Moon; Alexander Skarsgård, Pillion
CASTING (5)
- Hamnet
- I Swear
- One Battle After Another
- Sentimental Value
- Sinners
Spoiler: Marty Supreme
Other contenders: Frankenstein, A House of Dynamite, Pillion, Sirāt
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY (5)
- I Swear
- It Was Just an Accident
- Marty Supreme
- Sentimental Value
- Sinners
Spoiler: Blue Moon
Other contenders: A House of Dynamite, Is This Thing On?, The Secret Agent, Weapons
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY (5)
- Bugonia
- Frankenstein
- Hamnet
- One Battle After Another
- Train Dreams
Spoiler: Pillion
Other contenders: 28 Years Later, The Ballad of Wallis Island, Nuremberg, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery
CINEMATOGRAPHY (5)
- Frankenstein
- Marty Supreme
- One Battle After Another
- Sinners
- Train Dreams
Spoiler: Hamnet
Other contenders: Ballad of a Small Player, Bugonia, Die My Love, F1
COSTUME DESIGN (5)
- Frankenstein
- Hamnet
- One Battle After Another
- Sinners
- Wicked: For Good
Spoiler: Marty Supreme
Other contenders: Bugonia, Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale, Nouvelle Vague, Nuremberg
EDITING (5)
- Bugonia
- F1
- Marty Supreme
- One Battle After Another
- Sinners
Spoiler: Hamnet
Other contenders: 28 Years Later, Frankenstein, A House of Dynamite, Weapons
MAKE UP & HAIR (5)
- Frankenstein
- One Battle After Another
- Sinners
- The Smashing Machine
- Wicked: For Good
Spoiler: Nuremberg
Other contenders: Bugonia, Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale, Hamnet, Marty Supreme
ORIGINAL SCORE (5)
- Bugonia
- Frankenstein
- Hamnet
- One Battle After Another
- Sinners
Spoiler: Marty Supreme
Other contenders: 28 Years Later, The Ballad of Wallis Island, Nuremberg, Wicked: For Good
PRODUCTION DESIGN (5)
- Frankenstein
- Hamnet
- Marty Supreme
- Sinners
- Wicked: For Good
Spoiler: One Battle After Another
Other contenders: Ballad of a Small Player, Bugonia, The Fantastic Four: First Steps, Mickey 17
SPECIAL VISUAL EFFECTS (5)
- Avatar: Fire and Ash
- F1
- Frankenstein
- Jurassic World Rebirth
- The Lost Bus
Spoiler: How to Train Your Dragon
Other contenders: Mickey 17, Superman, Tron: Ares, Wicked: For Good
SOUND (5)
- F1
- Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning
- One Battle After Another
- Sinners
- Warfare
Spoiler: Bugonia
Other contenders: Avatar: Fire and Ash, Frankenstein, The Lost Bus, Wicked: For Good
CHILDREN’S & FAMILY FILM (4)
- Arco
- Elio
- Little Amelie
- Zootropolis 2
Spoiler: Lilo & Stitch
Other contenders: Boong, Grow, How to Train Your Dragon
FILM NOT IN THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE (5)
- It Was Just an Accident
- No Other Choice
- The Secret Agent
- Sentimental Value
- The Voice of Hind Rajab
Spoiler: Sirāt
Other contenders: La Grazia, Left-Handed Girl, Nouvelle Vague, Rental Family
DOCUMENTARY (5)
- Cover-Up
- Mr. Nobody Against Putin
- Ocean With David Attenborough
- One to One: John & Yoko
- The Perfect Neighbor
Spoiler: 2000 Meters to Andriivka
Other contenders: Apocalypse in the Tropics, Becoming Led Zeppelin, The Librarians, Riefenstahl
ANIMATED FILM (3)
- Arco
- Little Amelie
- Zootropolis 2
Spoiler: Elio
Other contenders: The Bad Guys 2, Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba Infinity Castle
BRITISH SHORT ANIMATION (3)
- Cardboard
- Ovary-Acting
- Two Black Boys in Paradise
Spoiler: Solstice
Other contenders: Brain Space, Death’s Peak
BRITISH SHORT FILM (5)
- 22+1
- Nostalgie
- This Is Endometriosis
- Welcome Home Freckles
- Wonderwall
Spoiler: Terence
Other contenders: BlondiMagid / ZafarNeil Armstrong and the Langholmites, The Pearl Comb
He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Critics Choice Association (CCA), San Francisco Bay Area Film Critics Circle (SFBAFCC) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.
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